Urban Honolulu, HI
Urban Honolulu merits selective investigation by buyers prioritizing rent growth and willing to accept a high entry price, nearly flat employment, and water risk.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Urban Honolulu merits selective investigation by buyers prioritizing rent growth and willing to accept a high entry price, nearly flat employment, and water risk. Buyers who require a high gross yield or broad local affordability should avoid it.
Asking rent rose 5.22% while the median home value rose 0.98%, leaving rent growth ahead of value growth. But the 4.25% gross yield is modest against an $858,222 median value, and rent equals 34.33% of median income. Rent momentum is the opportunity; gross return and tenant burden are the constraints.
Demand support is mixed: CES jobs grew 0.06%, while tax-filing migration was -2,232. Meanwhile, 6.5 months of supply and a 78-day median market time show no evidence of a rushed market. The dominant hazard is inland flood, and the published climate loss ratio is 0.3051% of building value per year, making property-level water exposure central to screening.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
How stretched is local affordability?
What do current listing conditions show?
Are household migration flows supportive?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Urban Honolulu as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Rents versus prices, indexed to 2019
Both series start at 100. The gap between the lines is the investment case, and which line is closing it tells you what kind of market this is.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 46 | 30% | 13.80 |
| Rent trend | 76 | 25% | 19.00 |
| Affordability | 6 | 15% | 0.90 |
| Supply pressure | 32 | 15% | 4.80 |
| Climate risk | 10 | 15% | 1.50 |
| Published score | 40 | ||
CES employment grew 0.06% year over year -> labor-demand support is nearly flat.
Asking rent rose 5.22% versus 0.98% for the median home value, while gross yield is 4.25% -> rent momentum outpaces value growth, but the gross return remains limited.
A price-to-income ratio of 8.08 and rent-to-income ratio of 34.33% -> both purchase access and tenant budgets are under pressure.
Inventory is 6.5 months, median market time is 78 days, and 15.11% of listings have price drops -> buyers have meaningful choice among listings.
The dominant hazard is inland flood and the climate loss ratio is 0.3051% -> property-level water exposure is a material underwriting issue.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- The $858,222 median value and 4.25% gross yield leave limited gross income relative to the entry cost.
- CES job growth is 0.06%, and tax-filing net migration is -2,232, providing weak demand support in the supplied indicators.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the 0.3051% climate loss ratio leaves property-specific water exposure as a key downside.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Urban Honolulu
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urban Honolulu, HI (Target) | 40 | $858k | $3,038 | 4.3% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Oxnard, CA | 26 | $884k | $2,957 | 4.0% | ▼ 0.3% |
| Santa Rosa, CA | 43 | $799k | $2,666 | 4.0% | ▲ 0.5% |
| Bridgeport, CT | 48 | $700k | $2,870 | 4.9% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Santa Maria, CA | 43 | $998k | $3,294 | 4.0% | ▲ 0.3% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |