Los Alamos, NM

Los Alamos, NM is best treated as a decision problem with unusually clear level data and an important missing momentum measure. The market has a population of 19,435, and the supplied evidence spans rental asking levels, home values, household income, labor change, construction permits, resale conditions, migration, mortgage purchase occupancy, and climate risk. Because Zillow’s trailing-12-month rent change is unavailable, this report is intentionally unranked and does not assign a score or rank; it cannot characterize the direction of Zillow rent movement over that interval. The useful question is not whether the area has a label, but whether current rent, value, affordability, supply, and participation measures remain mutually credible after source definitions are kept separate. That distinction matters because the packet combines asking-rent indexes, administrative benchmarks, and transaction-oriented indicators rather than a unified measure of achieved rents or costs.

At 2026-06-30, Zillow reports an asking-rent index of $2,645 and a home-value index of $593,538. The supplied gross yield is 5.35%, another level relationship in the packet, while Zillow’s home-value index is 1.07% lower than its year-earlier reading. Those observations put current asking rent alongside a negative value change, not a demonstrated change in actual lease revenue. Zillow’s scope here is asking-rent and home-value indexes, so neither series establishes concession use, lease-up, operating expenses, or property cash flow. The missing Zillow rent history is decisive: a current asking-rent level does not show whether the rent path has strengthened, softened, or stayed flat across the unavailable trailing-12-month comparison. The yield is a screening relation rather than proof of income performance.

Census ACS places median household income at $147,139. The packet’s rent-to-income and price-to-income measures are 0.2157 and 4.03. HUD lists FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent at $1,740. Against that benchmark, Zillow’s $2,645 asking-rent index is 1.52 times HUD FMR, a $905 difference. This is an affordability boundary, not evidence that identical households occupy identical units: Census ACS describes household income, HUD FMR is an administrative rent benchmark, and Zillow tracks asking rent. The relation nonetheless frames a key verification issue. The income measure and supplied rent-to-income ratio coexist with an asking-rent level above HUD’s two-bedroom benchmark. A decision based on affordability turns on the renter segment and unit standard each measure represents, rather than treating the values as interchangeable.

Labor, permits, and resale readings present a tension. BLS LAUS shows metro labor change of -1.12% for the 12 months to 2026-05. Census Building Permits Survey records 18 total permits in 2026 YTD through M06, or 0.93 per 1,000 people, with 0 permits in the 5-or-more-unit category. Redfin, dated 2026-05-01, reports 1 month of supply versus 2 in its prior reading, median days on market of 8 versus 34, and a sale-to-list ratio of 1.0089. Yet Redfin also shows price drops on 51.52% of listings, up from 27.4%, a 24.12-percentage-point difference. Read together, the source set documents a lower listed-inventory reading and faster market time alongside more reductions and a negative Zillow value change; it does not resolve whether listings, buyers, or sellers account for that combination.

Demand-side administrative evidence is also mixed and needs its own boundaries. IRS county-to-county tax-return migration aggregated to the market shows 820 moved in and 860 moved out, for net migration of -40. The associated AGI figures are $89,489 for inbound filers and $108,756 for outbound filers, a -$19,267 gap. These are filer-based migration measures, not a direct count of rental demand. HMDA’s 2024 purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence records 343 purchases, including 11 investor purchases, for a 3.21% investor share. HMDA therefore supplies a defined slice of purchase participation rather than a census of every buyer or rental owner. The investor count in that evidence, out-migration, and higher outbound AGI are relevant items to reconcile with the lower Redfin supply reading, but none by itself identifies who is competing for housing.

FEMA’s National Risk Index adds a separate exposure lens. Its climate loss ratio is 0.001013 and its risk score is 3.6, with inland flood identified as the top hazard and water as the hazard type. FEMA’s expected annual loss evidence is not a quote for insurance, maintenance, remediation, or taxes, so these metrics do not establish an operating-cost claim. Within this packet, cost-level evidence is limited to Zillow’s asking-rent and home-value indexes and HUD’s FY2026 FMR benchmark. That separation is consequential: a $2,645 Zillow asking-rent reading, a $593,538 Zillow value reading, and a $1,740 HUD benchmark establish levels from different programs, while FEMA identifies a risk category without furnishing a local ownership-cost schedule. An operating-cost conclusion requires records not included in this packet.

For a renter, landlord, or small investor, the practical output is a source-by-source diligence file rather than a directional call. Establish the unit type and rent definition behind any comparison of a contemplated lease with Zillow asking rent and HUD FMR; confirm whether observed rents carry concessions; and separate income qualification from Census ACS median income. On the resale side, reconcile the Redfin changes in supply, days on market, sale-to-list ratio, and price reductions with Zillow’s negative year-over-year value reading. Then examine what the BLS LAUS labor decline, Census Building Permits count, IRS migration and AGI gap, and HMDA occupancy evidence cover and omit. Finally, obtain local flood, insurance, tax, maintenance, and transaction-cost documentation before translating FEMA’s indicators into a cost view. This evidence supports focused questions, not a rent-growth forecast, a property conclusion, or an area ranking.