New Castle, IN
Investigate New Castle for buyers prioritizing affordable entry and tight resale supply; avoid it if the strategy requires strong current rent momentum or a wide cash-flow margin.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Investigate New Castle for buyers prioritizing affordable entry and tight resale supply; avoid it if the strategy requires strong current rent momentum or a wide cash-flow margin. The median home value is $194,683, median asking rent is $841, and indicated gross yield is 5.18%.
Demand signals are mixed rather than weak across the board. LAUS jobs rose 1.18%, while asking rents increased 1.39% and home values 2.12%. Inventory is tight at 1.8 months, yet 45% of listings had price drops. Buyers may face limited selection without dependable seller pricing power.
Affordability is the clearer opportunity: price-to-income is 3.08 and rent consumes 15.97% of median income. The main underwriting risks are modest rent movement, the inland-flood hazard, and thin migration gains. Investigate property-level insurance, flood exposure, achievable rent, and acquisition discounts before treating market-level affordability as deal-level return.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
What does migration show?
What does the listing market show?
How much investor activity is recorded?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep New Castle as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 85 | 30% | 25.50 |
| Rent trend | 22 | 25% | 5.50 |
| Affordability | 97 | 15% | 14.55 |
| Supply pressure | 95 | 15% | 14.25 |
| Climate risk | 63 | 15% | 9.45 |
| Published score | 69 | ||
LAUS employment increased -> the labor market offers a supportive demand signal, though occupation and employer detail is not published.
Asking rents grew more slowly than home values -> rental income is not keeping pace with purchase values.
Low rent-to-income and price-to-income measures -> housing burden and entry pricing look manageable at the metro level.
Low permitting and tight resale inventory, alongside frequent price drops -> buyers may have limited choice but negotiating room on some listings.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard with recorded building-value losses -> flood exposure needs property-level review.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- Modest asking-rent growth and a 5.18% gross yield may leave too little income cushion for some return targets.
- Price drops on 45% of listings show that tight inventory has not prevented widespread repricing.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and property-level exposure and insurance costs are not published.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like New Castle
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Castle, IN (Target) | 69 | $195k | $841 | 5.2% | ▲ 1.2% |
| Crawfordsville, IN | 88 | $229k | $966 | 5.1% | ▲ 1.1% |
| Jamestown, ND | 65 | $233k | $1,117 | 5.8% | ▲ 1.5% |
| Richmond, KY | 59 | $267k | $1,153 | 5.2% | ▲ 1.1% |
| Norfolk, NE | 59 | $261k | $1,247 | 5.7% | ▲ 0.7% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |