All homes and bedroom counts
RENTAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Ponca City, OK
Ponca City merits investigation by income-focused buyers who can underwrite flood and tenant risk.
Median price$118k
Median rent$801
Gross yield8.2%
Job growth▲ 0.6%
Composite Market ScoreRank #21 of 571 scored US market areas
Direct rental answer
How much is rent in Ponca City, OK?
Zillow's metro-wide Observed Rent Index is $801 per month for 2026-06-30. That is up 10.89% from a year earlier.
Occupied rental units paying rent
Two-bedroom standard
These figures are not averaged together. Zillow and Realtor describe asking-rent markets, ACS measures rent paid by surveyed households, and HUD publishes administrative bedroom standards.
Exact county schedules
HUD rent benchmarks inside Ponca City
Every row keeps its own county FIPS schedule. No county is selected as a metro proxy and no synthetic metro FMR is calculated.
| County | Studio | 1 BR | 2 BR | 3 BR | 4 BR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kay County, OKFIPS 40071 | $646 | $714 | $937 | $1,250 | $1,255 |
The read
Why this market scores where it does
Ponca City merits investigation by income-focused buyers who can underwrite flood and tenant risk. Buyers needing strong migration or low hazard exposure should avoid it; the demand evidence is mixed, and climate is the weakest signal.
At a $117,931 median value and $801 monthly asking rent, the recorded gross yield is 8.15%. Rent rose 10.89% year over year, while only 32 permits and 3 months of supply point to limited measured competition from new or listed homes.
The offset is thin demand and property-level risk. LAUS jobs grew 0.63%, but tax-file migration was -24 households. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with an annual building-loss ratio of 0.001807; a 62-day median market time and 18.13% price-drop share also argue for conservative exit assumptions.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
How does asking rent compare with the published fair market rent?
The median asking rent is $801, versus a fair market rent of $937; the calculated gap is $136.
Are more households moving into or out of the market?
Tax filings report 911 households moving in and 935 moving out, for net migration of -24.
What do current listing measures indicate about resale liquidity?
The record shows 3 months of supply, a 62-day median market time, and price drops on 18.13% of listings.
Investor Quick Takeaways
Gross Yield: 8.2%
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Rent Momentum: ▲ 10.89%
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Investor Activity: 14.6%
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Climate Exposure: FEMA NRI
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Put the evidence to work
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Ponca City as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
Run cash flowStarts with this market's measured price and rentSave to shortlistCompare this metro with up to four other placesCheck rent by ZIPMove from metro context to a local rent benchmarkFind a comparison marketRead a curated two-market decision analysisShare this analysisEmail the canonical link without adding page scriptsReport a data issueSend the figure, source and release period to review
Market pulse
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Months of supply3.0 mo.▼ from 3.3 mo. a year ago
Median days on market62 days▲ from 59 days a year ago
Listings with price drops18.1%▼ from 26.8% a year ago
Sale-to-list ratio95.5%2026-05-01
Home value growth▲ 3.6%Zillow ZHVI · trailing 12 months
Rent growth▲ 10.89%Zillow ZORI · trailing 12 months
Gross rental yield8.2%Rent × 12 ÷ price
Payroll job growth▲ 0.6%LAUS · 12m to 2026-05
Release-to-release evidence
What actually changed
This comparison exists because at least one underlying source period advanced. Rebuilding the same data never creates a new observation.
Published score held steady76→76
0 ptsThe published component scores did not move in this release.
Weights were unchanged at metro-2026-07-v2-omb2023, so the movement comes from refreshed evidence and percentile ranks.
The named source periods advanced, but the measured values on this page held steady.
Composite breakdown
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
Published arithmeticComponent × weight = points
76| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 69 | 30% | 20.70 |
| Rent trend | 96 | 25% | 24.00 |
| Affordability | 96 | 15% | 14.40 |
| Supply pressure | 88 | 15% | 13.20 |
| Climate risk | 28 | 15% | 4.20 |
| Published score | 76 | ||
Ponca City, OK scoreRank #21
76Job growth69/100
LAUS employment grew 0.63% year over year -> labor demand is positive but modest.
Rent trend96/100
Median asking rent rose 10.89% to $801 and gross yield is 8.15% -> the recorded income profile is the clearest opportunity.
Affordability96/100
A 2.02 price-to-income ratio and 16.45% rent-to-income ratio -> purchase and rent burdens are low relative to local median income.
Supply pressure88/100
A total of 32 permits and 3 months of supply -> measured construction and for-sale inventory are limited.
Climate risk28/100
Inland flood is the dominant hazard and the annual loss ratio is 0.001807 -> parcel-level exposure and insurance terms require close review.
The numbers
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
ZHVI Median Price
$118k
YoY ▲ 3.6%
ZORI Median Rent
$801
YoY ▲ 10.89%
Gross Rental Yield
8.2%
Rent × 12 ÷ price
$801 × 12 ÷ $117,931
Job Growth (YoY)
▲ 0.6%
LAUS payrolls
Job signal 69/100
Median Household Income
$58k
Census ACS 5-year
Rent Burden
16.4%
Annual rent ÷ household income
Price-to-Income
2.0x
Median value ÷ household income
HUD 2BR Fair Market Rent
$937
Market rent 85.5% of FMR
Historical affordability context
Compare aligned 2019 and 2024 asking-rent and nominal household-income endpoints across the direct-overlap metro set.
Independent rent evidence
One market, several legitimate rent benchmarks
These releases observe different homes and different moments. RentMarker keeps them separate: ZORI remains the scoring baseline, while the other sources test how sensitive the market story is to bedroom mix and measurement method.
Monthly benchmark4 of 4 reported values
Zero-based scale$801Primary RentMarker baseline
2026-06-30
All homes and bedroom counts
A smoothed metro rent index for observed rentals; it is the primary rent used by RentMarker scores and career ratios.
View source release ↗$714−$87 vs ZORI
FY2026 FMR
One-bedroom standard
An administrative gross-rent benchmark used by HUD programs; it is neither a listing median nor a prediction of one lease.
View source release ↗$937+$136 vs ZORI
FY2026 FMR
Two-bedroom standard
An administrative gross-rent benchmark used by HUD programs; it is neither a listing median nor a prediction of one lease.
View source release ↗$842+$41 vs ZORI
ACS 2024 5-year
Occupied rental units paying rent
A five-year survey estimate of contract rent plus applicable tenant-paid utilities; it is not a current asking-rent index.
View source release ↗Take the next step
Keep Ponca City as context, then replace market-wide evidence with the candidate property's facts.
Supply pipeline
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
National supply context
Compare this authorization pipeline with asking-rent growth, jobs and for-sale liquidity across the evidence-complete metro set.
Building permits by structure type
units per year · latest year annualised
32 units authorised in 2026, 0% of them in 5+ unit buildings. This is a single-family building cycle, so the competition is other houses, not new apartments. ✓ recomputed from series
Who is arriving, and who is buying
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
Net Household Move
−24
911 in vs 935 out (IRS SOI)
▼ 2.6% of arriving households
Mover Income Gap
−$5,036
Arriving $41,980 vs leaving $47,016
Average AGI per tax return (IRS SOI)
Investor Purchase Share
14.6%
57 of 389 originated purchase loans
CFPB HMDA 2024
Dominant Hazard
inland flooding
0.181% building value annual loss ratio
FEMA NRI · risk type: water
Compare yield and FEMA exposure →Households arrive mainly from: Osage County · Oklahoma County · Cowley County · Payne County · Sedgwick County
✓ 911 in − 935 out = -24 netDirect market links
Where tax-return households moved from and to
These are the largest flows where both counties map to a RentMarker market area. They are a documented subset of the all-US IRS totals above.
Leading inbound markets
- Tulsa, OK118 arriving
- Oklahoma City, OK60 arriving
- Stillwater, OK55 arriving
Leading outbound markets
- Oklahoma City, OK107 leaving
- Tulsa, OK101 leaving
- Stillwater, OK71 leaving
The other side
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- LAUS job growth is only 0.63%, leaving a modest employment-demand signal.
- Tax filings show net migration of -24 and an AGI gap of -$5,036 between inbound and outbound movers.
- The dominant hazard is inland flood, and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.001807, exposing returns to property-level damage and insurance risk.
Inside this micro area
Move from the market-area average to local evidence
Use the available county and city pages to add local price, rent, housing, migration and hazard context to the market-area view.
County records
Statistical peers
Market areas that behave like Ponca City
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Market area | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponca City, OK (Target) | 76 | $118k | $801 | 8.2% | ▲ 0.6% |
| Clarksburg, WV | 45 | $161k | $1,113 | 8.3% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Pittsburg, KS | 64 | $142k | $931 | 7.9% | ▼ 0.1% |
| Bartlesville, OK | 38 | $186k | $1,247 | 8.0% | ▼ 0.1% |
| Elmira, NY | 61 | $164k | $1,155 | 8.4% | ▲ 0.0% |
Provenance
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income and gross rent | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-08-05 |
| Census ACS 5-year — historical household income | direct | ACS 2019 and 2024 5-year | 2026-08-05 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Apartment List Rent Estimates — recent-lease rent index | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| BEA County Personal Income — income and population | direct | 2024 County Personal Income (released 2026-02-05); history 1969-2024 | 2026-08-03 |
| BEA Regional Price Parities — metropolitan price levels | direct | 2024 Regional Price Parities (released 2026-02-19); history 2008-2024 | 2026-08-03 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS OEWS — occupation employment and wages | direct | May 2025 OEWS estimates (released 2026-05-15) | 2026-08-03 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2021-2025; latest 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-08-02 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA | 2026-08-08 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI history 1975-2025; latest 2025 | 2026-08-02 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD CHAS — renter burden by HAMFI income band | direct | HUD CHAS 2018-2022 ACS 5-year (released 2025-12-23) | 2026-08-03 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD-USPS ZIP-to-county residential-address crosswalk | direct | HUD-USPS 2026Q1 | 2026-08-09 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-30 | 2026-08-06 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-08-06 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Realtor.com Rental Report — top-50 asking rents | direct | top-50 rental asking rents 2026-05 | 2026-08-05 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply | direct | ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03 | 2026-08-12 |
| USDA ERS — Rural-Urban Continuum Codes | direct | USDA ERS 2023 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes | 2026-08-02 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI - metro market rents, not seasonally adjusted | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_month.csv | 2026-08-15 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-08-08 |