Permits / 1,000 residents: 20.77.
Supply screen · constrained national screen
Rental markets where new supply deserves scrutiny
Markets above the complete-universe permit median while asking-rent growth sits below its median.
Question answeredWhich complete markets combine a larger housing authorization pipeline with slower current asking-rent growth?
Visual ranking
The leading ten, with one metric encoded.
The chart stays intentionally narrow: it shows the ordering metric, while the table and counter-signals keep the rest of the decision visible.
The median of the ten displayed leaders, not a national threshold.
The table preserves the counter-metrics needed before opening a market brief.
Evidence table
Top twenty qualifying market areas.
Each row links to the full metro evidence. Figures retain the units and concepts named in the column headers.
| Rank | Market area | Permits / 1,000 | Rent change | Months supply | Job change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Jefferson, GA | 20.77 | +2.8% | 4.6 | −2.6% |
| #2 | Wilmington, NC | 18.93 | +2.9% | 3.9 | +2.6% |
| #3 | Punta Gorda, FL | 17.51 | −0.0% | 4.3 | −0.7% |
| #4 | Durham, NC | 17.48 | +0.3% | 3 | −0.7% |
| #5 | Myrtle Beach, SC | 17.42 | +1.4% | 5.7 | +1.6% |
| #6 | Fayetteville, AR | 16.42 | +1.6% | 3.4 | +2.5% |
| #7 | Ocala, FL | 16.25 | −0.2% | 4.1 | +1.6% |
| #8 | St. George, UT | 15.39 | +3.3% | 10.1 | +2.1% |
| #9 | North Port, FL | 15.07 | −1.5% | 3.8 | +1.2% |
| #10 | Raleigh, NC | 14.23 | +0.3% | 3 | +2.1% |
| #11 | Cape Coral, FL | 13.46 | −1.9% | 4.9 | −0.6% |
| #12 | Cedar City, UT | 13.4 | +0.4% | 7 | +1.8% |
| #13 | Crestview, FL | 13.39 | +2.8% | 5.9 | +0.4% |
| #14 | Asheville, NC | 13.29 | +1.2% | 6.2 | +0.9% |
| #15 | Burlington, NC | 12.97 | +1.7% | 3.1 | −0.7% |
| #16 | Spartanburg, SC | 12.91 | +2.1% | 3.8 | +0.7% |
| #17 | Hilton Head Island, SC | 11.69 | +0.6% | 4.5 | +1.7% |
| #18 | Rexburg, ID | 11.49 | +0.9% | 9.5 | −0.6% |
| #19 | Gainesville, GA | 11.39 | +0.8% | 4.4 | +0.3% |
| #20 | Homosassa Springs, FL | 11.23 | +1.7% | 3.8 | +0.6% |
Method and limits
What this order means—and what it does not.
This is a repeatable screening order, not an investment recommendation, forecast or property-level estimate.
Inclusion and ordering rule: Include every RentMarker metro with direct Zillow rent and home-value measures, Census permitted units per 1,000 residents, a named BLS employment series, and Redfin months of supply, median days on market and price-drop share. Compute unweighted medians across that complete intersection, then place every metro into one of four permits/rent-growth groups. No group is converted into a forecast or composite score.
How it is calculated
- Permitted units per 1,000 residents divides the latest Census BPS authorization count by current ACS metro population.
- Zillow ZORI year-over-year change is the asking-rent axis; the two medians are descriptive boundaries computed from the same complete metro universe.
- BLS employment, Redfin for-sale months of supply, days on market and listing price cuts remain separate context rather than inputs to a hidden pressure score.
Counter-signals to carry
- A permit authorizes construction but does not prove when, whether or as what tenure a unit will be completed.
- Stronger employment can help absorb new housing, while weak jobs can deepen a slow-rent-growth signal; neither relationship is assumed to be causal here.
- Redfin tracks homes offered for sale, not rental vacancy, so its liquidity measures describe buyer leverage and resale conditions only.
Limits before use
- The permit total includes single-family and multifamily structures; the 5+ unit share is retained but does not identify rental tenure.
- Zillow, Census, BLS and Redfin releases cover different periods, making this a current joined screen rather than a synchronized forecast.
- Metro averages can conceal neighborhood, property-type and delivery-timing differences that require local and property-level due diligence.
Source ledger
Named releases behind this ranking.
Release period and pull date remain attached so a later refresh can reproduce a different order honestly.
Census ACS 5-year — populationACS 2024 5-yearPulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employmentCES SM currentPulled 2026-07-26BLS LAUS — resident employmentLAUS currentPulled 2026-07-26Census Building Permits Survey — permitted unitsBPS through 2026Pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cutsmetro tracker through 2026-05-01Pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZHVI — metro home valuesMetro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csvPulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rentsMetro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csvPulled 2026-07-26
Next decision
Move from a market screen to a property test.
Open the market evidence first, then replace market-wide typicals with the candidate property’s actual price, rent and operating assumptions.