US Rental Market Pulse · June 2026

June 2026 Rental Market Pulse: Rent Growth Was Broad, but Regional Pace Diverged

A source-period review of 571 US market areas, keeping asking-rent movement separate from employment, permitted supply, for-sale inventory, household income and home values.

Download all 571 rowsOpen momentum map
Median rent change
3.3%
direct market median
Markets rising
529
92.6% of coverage
Markets cooling
41
negative annual change
Central 80% range
0.5%–7.6%
10th to 90th percentile
The direct answer

What the latest measured rent period says

June’s direct rent release says asking-rent growth was broad, not uniform. Zillow ZORI covers 571 market areas for the June 2026 measurement period, dated June 30, and records a 3.31% median year-over-year increase. The index was positive in 529 markets, negative in 41 and flat in 1; the supplied positive share is 92.6%. Yet the national distribution ran from 0.48% at the 10th percentile to 7.64% at the 90th, so breadth did not imply a common pace.

That is the central national tension: observed asking rents rose across most of the measured universe while the median year-over-year job change was only 0.1%. Regional medians also separated sharply, with the Midwest at 4.36% and Northeast at 4.09%, compared with 2.7% in the West and 2.59% in the South. The classification split reinforces the mismatch: 131 markets paired faster rent growth with weak jobs, while 154 paired faster rent growth with positive jobs. Cedar Rapids illustrated the first pattern; Austin showed that positive jobs could coexist with falling asking rents.

Readers should therefore treat the rent reading as a screen, not a conclusion. Compare each market’s position in the ZORI distribution with separately dated labor, permitted-supply and for-sale inventory measures; then move to local listings, concessions, signed-lease evidence, renewal performance and completion schedules. Keep boundaries intact: Census permits are authorizations, Redfin months of supply concerns homes for sale, ACS household income is not renter income, and Zillow home values are not transaction prices. The next inspection should be property-specific, covering unit mix, current occupancy, operating costs, deferred work and documented lease-up assumptions rather than extrapolating a metro index.

Regional distribution

Regional Breadth Masked a Wide Difference in Pace

The West’s 141-market distribution had a 2.7% median, with the 10th percentile at 0.55% and the 90th at 6.9%; 134 markets were positive, a 95.0% share. The South covered 226 markets and had a lower 2.59% median, while its distribution stretched from -0.28% at the 10th percentile to 6.12% at the 90th. Its 197 positive markets represented 87.2%, the lowest regional share. Among major markets, San Francisco’s 8.17% gain illustrates a fast Western observation, while San Antonio’s -1.98% illustrates Southern cooling. Neither example establishes the regional pattern; the full distributions do.

The Midwest’s 140 markets posted the highest regional median, 4.36%, with a 1.77% 10th percentile and an 8.61% 90th percentile; 135 were positive, or 96.4%. The Northeast’s 64 markets had a 4.09% median, a 2.32% 10th percentile and an 8.52% 90th percentile. There, 63 markets were positive, a 98.4% share, the broadest of the four regions. Cedar Rapids, up 12.48%, is a major-market illustration of the Midwest’s faster edge, and Utica, up 5.81%, is a Northeast illustration. Those movers add texture, but the medians, tails and positive shares carry the regional comparison.

Direct Zillow ZORI distribution

Regional medians sit inside very different market ranges

The line spans the 10th-to-90th percentile. The dot is the regional median, not an average city.

Asking-rent growth distribution by Census regionFour horizontal ranges show the tenth percentile, median and ninetieth percentile year-over-year Zillow asking-rent change for market areas in each Census region.-1.3%0.5%2.3%4.2%6.0%7.8%9.6%Northeast4.1%63/64 risingMidwest4.4%135/140 risingSouth2.6%197/226 risingWest2.7%134/141 risingYear-over-year observed asking-rent change →
Every market contributes one direct ZORI year-over-year observation for June 2026. Extremes outside the central 80% remain in the downloadable table.
Northeast4.1%

63 of 64 direct markets rose year over year.

10th percentile
2.3%
90th percentile
8.5%
Median jobs
0.1%
Midwest4.4%

135 of 140 direct markets rose year over year.

10th percentile
1.8%
90th percentile
8.6%
Median jobs
-0.2%
South2.6%

197 of 226 direct markets rose year over year.

10th percentile
-0.3%
90th percentile
6.1%
Median jobs
0.2%
West2.7%

134 of 141 direct markets rose year over year.

10th percentile
0.5%
90th percentile
6.9%
Median jobs
0.1%
Challenge the headline

Labor and Supply Measures Complicate the Rent Headline

The employment context is not a single synchronized measure. BLS observations cover 12-month changes through May or June 2026, and CES counts payroll jobs while LAUS measures resident employment. Across the market context, the median job change was 0.1%. The market-level pairings run both ways: Cedar Rapids combined a 12.48% ZORI increase with a -2.13% job observation, whereas Austin combined 1.39% job growth with a -1.87% ZORI change. These cases challenge any assumption that the direction of current asking rents necessarily confirms the direction of employment.

Supply context is also mixed and differently defined. Census data through June 2026 show a national median of 3.03 authorized units per 1,000 ACS residents; permits are authorizations, not completed or available rentals. The South’s median was 4.735, compared with 2.19 in the Midwest. Redfin’s May 1 for-sale measure covered 544 markets and had a 3.4-month median, with 3.9 months in the South and 2.3 in the Midwest. That regional contrast accompanies slower Southern and faster Midwestern rent medians, but for-sale supply cannot be read as rental vacancy or proof of a supply effect.

571 markets with direct rent and named employment context

Faster rent and positive jobs do not always travel together

The dotted rules mark zero employment change and the national median rent change.

Asking-rent change compared with employment changeScatter plot of direct market-area Zillow asking-rent change against separately dated BLS employment change, colored by Census region.-2.6%-1.6%-0.5%0.5%1.5%2.5%-1.9%1.5%4.8%8.2%11.5%14.8%Separately dated BLS employment change →ZORI rent change →
The axes trim only their visual endpoints to the 2nd-to-98th percentile; titles and the CSV retain exact values. ZORI is measured in June 2026; BLS periods remain separately labelled.
Faster rent · positive jobs154

Above the national rent median with separately measured positive employment change.

Faster rent · weak jobs131

Above-median rent change without a positive employment reading.

Permits context571

Markets with a separately dated authorization measure.

For-sale supply context544

Markets with Redfin months of supply; not rental vacancy.

Major-market check

Large-market examples at both ends of the release

Population floor: 250,000. These examples illustrate the distribution; they do not explain their region.

Fastest annual rent change

  1. Cedar Rapids, IAFaster rent · weak jobs
    12.5%Jobs -2.1%
  2. Rockford, ILFaster rent · weak jobs
    8.8%Jobs -1.4%
  3. San Francisco, CAFaster rent · positive jobs
    8.2%Jobs 0.1%
  4. Fort Wayne, INFaster rent · positive jobs
    6.6%Jobs 0.7%
  5. Reno, NVFaster rent · positive jobs
    6.5%Jobs 1.9%
  6. San Jose, CAFaster rent · positive jobs
    6.3%Jobs 1.4%
  7. Brownsville, TXFaster rent · weak jobs
    6.0%Jobs -1.2%
  8. South Bend, INFaster rent · weak jobs
    6.0%Jobs -0.7%

Slowest annual rent change

  1. San Antonio, TXRent cooling
    -2.0%Jobs 0.1%
  2. Cape Coral, FLRent cooling
    -1.9%Jobs -0.6%
  3. Austin, TXRent cooling
    -1.9%Jobs 1.4%
  4. North Port, FLRent cooling
    -1.5%Jobs 1.2%
  5. Denver, CORent cooling
    -1.5%Jobs -0.1%
  6. Savannah, GARent cooling
    -1.3%Jobs 0.8%
  7. Tampa, FLRent cooling
    -0.9%Jobs 0.1%
  8. Killeen, TXRent cooling
    -0.9%Jobs 0.2%
From release to decision

Move From Metro Screening to Property-Level Evidence

Begin with the direct rent signal: identify whether a market is cooling, growing moderately or sitting in the faster-growth group, and note whether its result lies near a regional tail. Next, overlay the separately dated labor observation without treating CES payroll employment and LAUS resident employment as interchangeable. Add permitted units as a pipeline authorization measure and Redfin months of supply as for-sale context. Then review ACS household income only as a broad household benchmark, not as renter earnings, and treat Zillow home values as an index rather than sale prices.

The screen should lead to local evidence. Inspect competing asking listings by unit type and neighborhood, advertised concessions, recent signed leases, renewal outcomes, physical vacancy, days vacant and known completion schedules. At the property level, reconcile achievable rent with unit condition, utility responsibility, taxes, insurance, maintenance, management, turnover and deferred capital work. Compare those findings with the metro index instead of substituting the index for them. This sequence is intended to expose mismatches and missing information; it does not declare a winning market, forecast rent or home-value growth, or predict occupancy and returns.

Counter-signals

What complicates the headline

  1. 01

    Cedar Rapids, IA, recorded a 12.48% June ZORI increase while its separately dated job observation was -2.13%. Redfin showed 1.3 months of for-sale supply, and Census reported 3.51 permitted units per 1,000 ACS residents. The juxtaposition makes it a clear example of faster asking-rent growth occurring alongside weak employment, not evidence that rent strength confirms labor strength.

  2. 02

    Austin, TX, moved in the opposite direction: the job observation increased 1.39%, but June ZORI declined 1.87%. The market also had 8.66 permitted units per 1,000 ACS residents and 5.2 months of for-sale supply. Permits are authorizations and Redfin tracks homes for sale, yet both measures provide relevant supply context for investigating why the direct rent signal differs from the labor reading.

  3. 03

    Brownsville, TX, combined a 6.05% ZORI increase with a -1.19% job observation. Its context also included 6.28 permitted units per 1,000 ACS residents and 5.8 months of for-sale supply. This is not a regional conclusion or a causal claim. It is a prompt to inspect local rental listings, concessions, completed units and signed leases before interpreting the asking-rent increase as durable demand.

Source periods

Each context measure keeps its own clock

Download complete CSV
acs incomeCensus ACS 5-year — household income and gross rentACS 2024 5-year · retrieved 2026-08-05bls cesBLS CES — payroll employmentCES SM current · retrieved 2026-07-26bls lausBLS LAUS — resident employmentLAUS current · retrieved 2026-07-26census bpsCensus Building Permits Survey — permitted unitsBPS through 2026 · retrieved 2026-07-26redfinRedfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cutsmetro tracker through 2026-05-01 · retrieved 2026-07-26zillow zhviZillow ZHVI — metro home valuesMetro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · retrieved 2026-07-26zillow zoriZillow ZORI — metro market rentsMetro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · retrieved 2026-07-26

The report does not average these measurements, synchronize unlike release periods or modify the RentMarker Score.