When Zillow market rent and HUD Fair Market Rent diverge
Where does Zillow's observed market rent sit materially above or below HUD's two-bedroom Fair Market Rent?
The two rent measures answer different questions. Joining them reveals where a market asking-rent index and a federal program benchmark are far apart—and where treating either one as the other would be risky.
- Metros compared
- 696 complete ZORI and HUD FMR
- ZORI above 110%
- 408 descriptive upper band
- Within 10%
- 257 near the parity line
- ZORI below 90%
- 31 descriptive lower band
The two rent measures are often not interchangeable
Across 696 metros, the median Zillow-to-HUD ratio is 1.1x. Using the published bands, Zillow ZORI is more than 110% of HUD two-bedroom FMR in 408 metros, stays within 10% in 257, and falls below 90% in 31. The counts describe a definition gap; they do not announce that either source is wrong.
Hailey, IDrecords the highest ratio at 2.9x, a monthly difference of $2,086. At the other end, Fort Madison, IAis at 0.7x, where ZORI is $297 below the HUD figure. The extremes are precisely where substituting one measure for the other would introduce the largest underwriting error.
ZORI is a market asking-rent index. HUD FMR is an administrative program benchmark with a utilities component. Their disagreement is information, not a reason to blend them into a fictional midpoint.
A buyer can use the table to identify which rent question must be answered next. If the purpose is broad market screening, ZORI remains the direct market series used in RentMarker yield. If the purpose involves a voucher or payment standard, the next step is the relevant local housing authority and, where applicable, ZIP-level Small Area FMR. Neither metro measure is a substitute for unit-level rent evidence.
How far Zillow rent sits from HUD two-bedroom FMR
The center line is parity. Right means ZORI is higher; left means it is lower.
The first 24 rows, with a path to the underlying market
| Gap rank | Metro | Zillow rent | HUD FMR | Dollar gap | Ratio | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hailey, IDmarket above fmr | $3,157 | $1,071 | $2,086 | 2.95x | Market evidence |
| 2 | Jackson, WYmarket above fmr | $3,475 | $1,488 | $1,987 | 2.33x | Market evidence |
| 3 | Taos, NMmarket above fmr | $2,928 | $1,279 | $1,649 | 2.29x | Market evidence |
| 4 | Kapaa, HImarket above fmr | $5,102 | $2,332 | $2,770 | 2.19x | Market evidence |
| 5 | Oxford, MSmarket above fmr | $2,108 | $1,043 | $1,066 | 2.02x | Market evidence |
| 6 | Steamboat Springs, COmarket above fmr | $3,199 | $1,593 | $1,606 | 2.01x | Market evidence |
| 7 | Albertville, ALmarket above fmr | $1,501 | $776 | $725 | 1.93x | Market evidence |
| 8 | Albemarle, NCmarket above fmr | $1,775 | $925 | $850 | 1.92x | Market evidence |
| 9 | Boone, NCmarket above fmr | $2,175 | $1,177 | $998 | 1.85x | Market evidence |
| 10 | Houghton, MImarket above fmr | $1,769 | $973 | $796 | 1.82x | Market evidence |
| 11 | Jefferson, GAmarket above fmr | $2,077 | $1,153 | $924 | 1.80x | Market evidence |
| 12 | Montrose, COmarket above fmr | $2,093 | $1,168 | $925 | 1.79x | Market evidence |
| 13 | Ozark, ALmarket above fmr | $1,383 | $776 | $607 | 1.78x | Market evidence |
| 14 | Marion, NCmarket above fmr | $1,648 | $925 | $723 | 1.78x | Market evidence |
| 15 | Heber, UTmarket above fmr | $3,449 | $1,966 | $1,483 | 1.75x | Market evidence |
| 16 | Breckenridge, COmarket above fmr | $3,337 | $1,905 | $1,432 | 1.75x | Market evidence |
| 17 | Starkville, MSmarket above fmr | $1,571 | $900 | $672 | 1.75x | Market evidence |
| 18 | Kill Devil Hills, NCmarket above fmr | $2,450 | $1,430 | $1,020 | 1.71x | Market evidence |
| 19 | Scottsboro, ALmarket above fmr | $1,313 | $776 | $537 | 1.69x | Market evidence |
| 20 | Mount Pleasant, TXmarket above fmr | $1,641 | $973 | $668 | 1.69x | Market evidence |
| 21 | Calhoun, GAmarket above fmr | $1,689 | $1,011 | $678 | 1.67x | Market evidence |
| 22 | Clewiston, FLmarket above fmr | $2,108 | $1,262 | $847 | 1.67x | Market evidence |
| 23 | Gardnerville Ranchos, NVmarket above fmr | $2,618 | $1,567 | $1,051 | 1.67x | Market evidence |
| 24 | Seneca, SCmarket above fmr | $1,550 | $941 | $609 | 1.65x | Market evidence |
The visible table is intentionally limited for reading. The CSV contains every row that passes the printed inclusion rule.
Inclusion first, interpretation second.
Include every RentMarker metro with a direct Zillow ZORI value and a population-weighted HUD two-bedroom FMR. Classify the ZORI/FMR ratio as above when it exceeds 1.10, near when it is between 0.90 and 1.10, and below when it is less than 0.90. Rank rows by absolute distance from 1.00.
Methodology version: v2Method
- The comparison divides current metro Zillow ZORI by the metro's population-weighted HUD two-bedroom FMR.
- Dollar gap is Zillow ZORI minus HUD FMR; ratio gap is the same comparison expressed relative to HUD FMR.
- The ten-percent bands are descriptive screen boundaries, not confidence intervals or eligibility rules.
Counter-signals
- HUD FMR includes a tenant-paid utilities allowance and targets a program rent standard; ZORI is an asking-rent index.
- Bedroom mix, geography construction and covered rental stock differ between the two measures.
- A high ratio does not prove that a voucher unit will command the Zillow index rent or fail a local payment standard.
Limitations
- This is a metro-level comparison and cannot replace a ZIP-level SAFMR, local housing-authority rule or unit inspection.
- The measures can have different release dates and are not adjusted here to force identical unit composition.
- The table describes measurement divergence; it does not label either source as correct for every use case.
Every input release used by this study
Release and retrieval dates stay visible so a reader can tell whether two measures describe the same moment.