Where gross yield survives a positive jobs screen
Which US metro gross yields remain highest after requiring positive year-over-year employment?
A low purchase price can make gross yield look unusually strong. This screen joins current Zillow rent and home-value measures with the available BLS metro employment series before a market reaches the table.
- Starting universe
- 696 metros with all required fields
- Passed the jobs rule
- 360 strictly positive employment change
- Median surviving yield
- 5.8% gross, before property expenses
- Highest surviving yield
- 11.5% Kingsville, TX
A shorter yield list, not a list of winners
The complete input universe contains 696 metros. Requiring employment growth to be above zero leaves 360. That removes 336 markets before yield is ranked. The rule is intentionally simple: it prevents a high gross-yield figure from standing alone when the available labor signal is flat or contracting, but it does not turn a positive reading into a forecast.
Kingsville, TX sits at the top of the surviving screen with a 11.5% gross yield and 1.4% year-over-year employment growth. The median survivor is 5.8% yield with 0.7%employment growth. Those are market-level ratios: taxes, insurance, repairs, vacancy, management and financing have not yet entered the calculation.
The employment rule is a brake on a one-number yield story. It is not evidence that the remaining markets—or their individual properties—will outperform.
The market with the strongest employment reading in the surviving set is North Platte, NE at 4.9%. It does not lead the yield ranking. That separation is useful: the two measures impose a trade-off rather than collapsing into a synthetic “best market” label. A reader can therefore decide whether to begin with income potential or labor momentum, then inspect supply, migration and climate evidence on the linked market page.
Gross yield after the positive-jobs screen
Higher is more gross yield; farther right is faster current employment growth.
The first 24 rows, with a path to the underlying market
| Rank | Metro | Gross yield | Jobs YoY | Home value | Rent | Next step |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kingsville, TXLAUS | 11.5% | 1.4% | $149k | $1,426 | Stress-test |
| 2 | Abilene, TXCES | 10.6% | 0.8% | $220k | $1,935 | Stress-test |
| 3 | Opelousas, LALAUS | 10.2% | 1.8% | $133k | $1,129 | Stress-test |
| 4 | Ozark, ALLAUS | 10.1% | 0.2% | $165k | $1,383 | Stress-test |
| 5 | Ogdensburg, NYLAUS | 9.3% | 0.1% | $151k | $1,173 | Stress-test |
| 6 | Plainview, TXLAUS | 9.3% | 0.2% | $122k | $947 | Stress-test |
| 7 | Clewiston, FLLAUS | 9.2% | 2.3% | $275k | $2,108 | Stress-test |
| 8 | Monroe, LACES | 9.1% | 1.1% | $168k | $1,271 | Stress-test |
| 9 | Paducah, KYCES | 9.0% | 0.6% | $170k | $1,273 | Stress-test |
| 10 | Enterprise, ALLAUS | 9.0% | 1.1% | $188k | $1,400 | Stress-test |
| 11 | Pottsville, PALAUS | 9.0% | 0.1% | $170k | $1,267 | Stress-test |
| 12 | Somerset, KYLAUS | 8.9% | 1.5% | $184k | $1,360 | Stress-test |
| 13 | Corning, NYLAUS | 8.8% | 0.0% | $174k | $1,277 | Stress-test |
| 14 | Shreveport, LACES | 8.8% | 0.0% | $186k | $1,358 | Stress-test |
| 15 | Borger, TXLAUS | 8.7% | 4.0% | $126k | $913 | Stress-test |
| 16 | Laurel, MSLAUS | 8.7% | 0.8% | $156k | $1,133 | Stress-test |
| 17 | Sumter, SCCES | 8.6% | 0.3% | $209k | $1,504 | Stress-test |
| 18 | DuBois, PALAUS | 8.5% | 0.0% | $145k | $1,029 | Stress-test |
| 19 | Oneonta, NYLAUS | 8.4% | 1.0% | $221k | $1,549 | Stress-test |
| 20 | Sandusky, OHCES | 8.4% | 2.1% | $243k | $1,689 | Stress-test |
| 21 | Burlington, IALAUS | 8.3% | 1.4% | $146k | $1,013 | Stress-test |
| 22 | Kinston, NCLAUS | 8.3% | 0.3% | $158k | $1,095 | Stress-test |
| 23 | DeRidder, LALAUS | 8.3% | 0.6% | $187k | $1,298 | Stress-test |
| 24 | Clarksburg, WVLAUS | 8.3% | 0.1% | $161k | $1,113 | Stress-test |
The visible table is intentionally limited for reading. The CSV contains every row that passes the printed inclusion rule.
Inclusion first, interpretation second.
Start with every RentMarker metro that has direct Zillow ZHVI, Zillow ZORI, population and a named BLS employment series. Publish only rows whose year-over-year employment change is greater than zero; rank the surviving rows by gross yield, highest first.
Methodology version: v2Method
- Gross yield is monthly Zillow ZORI multiplied by 12 and divided by Zillow ZHVI.
- The employment screen uses the metro's current named BLS series: CES where available, otherwise LAUS.
- No score, appreciation forecast, expense estimate or property-level assumption enters the ranking.
Counter-signals
- Positive employment does not show whether growth is broad-based, durable or sufficient to absorb new supply.
- Gross yield is before taxes, insurance, vacancy, maintenance, management and financing.
- A small positive employment change clears the rule but should not be read as a strong labor-market call.
Limitations
- ZORI and ZHVI describe metro-level typical asking rent and home value, not a specific property's rent or acquisition price.
- CES and LAUS measure different labor concepts; the source used for each metro is retained in the download.
- Release periods differ across sources, so the study is a current joined screen rather than a synchronized economic experiment.
Every input release used by this study
Release and retrieval dates stay visible so a reader can tell whether two measures describe the same moment.