Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP asking-rent index for 22031 is $2,460 per month, after a 0.4% year-over-year decline. This is Zillow ZORI: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a rent quote for a particular available home. The immediate tension is modest cooling in the current asking-rent reading against a longer history that remains positive and a resale market with several competitive sale signals. That combination does not resolve into a forecast; it instead makes the current rent figure most useful as a market-level reference that requires property-specific confirmation.
The rent history breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer path. The one-year exact same-month annualized change was -0.4%, while the three-year measure was 2.6% and the five-year measure was 4.2%. History coverage is complete at 100% across 126 observations and 125 consecutive monthly returns. Monthly-return variability is 2.1% annualized, a relatively contained reading that lends more confidence to a current ZORI snapshot than a highly erratic series would. Still, the series experienced a 6.7% maximum drawdown from an earlier peak, so the latest level should not be treated as a permanent floor. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,978 for momentum, 209 for stability, and 1,103 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, although 22031 is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match used here. The ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $2,258. That ACS measure surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is not interchangeable with Zillow’s asking-rent index. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,720; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The local HUD ladder scales ZORI into modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $2,143 for a studio, $2,207 for one bedroom, $2,460 for two bedrooms, $3,102 for three bedrooms, and $3,654 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Income and burden measures add a separate affordability lens. The matched ZCTA’s median household income is $134,577, while the arithmetic income associated with paying the $2,460 ZIP asking-rent index at 30% of gross income is $98,400. That screen is arithmetic only: it is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule, and it does not account for taxes, debt, household composition, utilities beyond the index scope, or a specific lease. ACS reports 3,195 renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent, equal to 41.8% of renter households in the five-year survey. The burden share describes surveyed households, not the affordability or likely outcome of any particular unit.
The ZCTA contains 15,431 housing units, with 7,645 renter-occupied homes, making renters 51.6% of occupied households. Of all units, 606 are vacant, producing a 3.9% vacancy rate; 294 units are reported vacant for rent. Housing stock is split across 7,463 single-family units and 4,806 units in large multifamily structures. These counts give useful composition and availability context, but they do not identify current concessions, unit condition, lease turnover, or which vacant homes are actually marketed at the ZORI level. Vacancy also cannot prove availability, pricing power, or affordability for a particular apartment or house.
For wider context only, the Fairfax, VA city rent index is $2,458, Fairfax County context is $2,542, and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro context is $2,448. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index therefore sits very near the city context, below the county context, and above the metro context. These city, county, and metro figures are wider-geography comparisons, not substitutes for direct 22031 rent observations, and they should not be mixed with the matched-ZCTA ACS household measures or HUD’s administrative standards.
Redfin provides a different, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Its median sold price is $737,833, down 3.2% year over year, with 112 homes sold and a median 22 days on market. The inventory reading is 55 homes and months of supply is 1.5. Sale-to-list evidence is firmer than the price change alone: average sale-to-list is 100.96%, 50.5% of sales closed above list, and 64.9% went off market within two weeks. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 4.0% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The sold-price decline confirms the recent rent-cooling direction, while the short supply and sale-to-list signals challenge any simple reading of broadly weak market conditions.
The evidence has clear limits. Zillow describes a blended asking-rent index, ACS summarizes occupied renter households over five years, HUD provides an administrative standard, and Redfin records for-sale resale activity. None supplies a verified lease quote, operating expenses, property tax, financing terms, renovation needs, concessions, or a unit-level sale valuation. Useful property-level checks therefore include the actual bedroom count, lease term, included utilities, availability date, condition, advertised concessions, comparable active asking rents, and whether a sale record matches the property type and closing date being evaluated. The strongest conclusion is not a prediction: current rent cooling is real in the latest history measure, but the separate evidence universes should remain distinct when interpreting it.