As of June 2026, Zillow's typical observed asking-rent index, ZORI, for ZIP 38654 is $1,896 per month. ZORI blends rental types at the ZIP level and is an asking-rent index, rather than a record of rents paid by occupied households. For wider context only, Olive Branch city scope is effectively the same, DeSoto County scope is $1,676, and Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro scope is $1,435; those broader figures are comparison context, not ZIP substitutes. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the geographic labels support comparison without making the two data systems interchangeable.
The backward-looking path contains a meaningful slowdown within continued positive change. Its exact same-month change was 1.14% over the latest one-year interval, compared with annualized 2.16% across three years and 4.10% across five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, but its pace breaks from the faster rates recorded across those longer spans. Annualized variability of monthly returns was 2.89%, and the maximum drawdown was -4.05%. History coverage is 100%, which supports continuity of the measurement record. Its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,701 for momentum, 1,422 for stability, and 1,740 for balanced; lower ranks are higher. These backward-looking measurements frame confidence in a current snapshot: coverage is complete, yet realized variability and a prior decline mean the index alone cannot settle a property's current terms.
Bedroom framing sharpens the source distinction. The FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,690; the ZIP asking-rent index sits 12.2% above it. The local HUD ladder is used only as a scaling framework for ZORI, producing modelled monthly estimates of $1,582 for a studio, $1,716 for one bedroom, $1,896 for two bedrooms, $2,502 for three bedrooms, and $2,917 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard used here for a relative ladder, not asking rent, and the Zillow index itself blends rental types. An actual listing can differ in bedroom classification and its advertised terms.
ACS answers a different rental question from ZORI. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey gives median gross rent of $1,829 with a $153 margin of error. It surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI reports typical observed asking rents across blended rental types. The current Zillow index stands 3.7% above the ACS result; that arithmetic is not proof that new listings cost the same as an occupied lease, or that any particular household's rent changed by that amount. The sources illuminate different universes rather than competing measurements of one contract.
At ACS ZCTA median household income of $103,092, the $1,896 index implies annual household income of $75,840 under the 30% screen and consumes about 22.1% of that median income. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS estimates that 1,116 of 3,107 renter households are at or above the burden threshold, a 35.9% share; the burden numerator's margin of error is 350. These survey estimates describe households in the ZCTA survey universe, so neither the median-income comparison nor the burden share can establish affordability, eligibility, or payment stress for a named household or unit.
The ACS housing inventory further separates aggregate structure from listing-level evidence. It contains 21,652 housing units and a 3.4% vacancy rate, while renter households account for 14.9% of occupied units. Structure counts list 19,931 single-family units and 322 units in large multifamily structures. The same survey identifies 175 units as vacant for rent, but that is an area-level category rather than evidence that a particular address is available, advertised, habitable, or offered on comparable terms. The figures provide scale and composition for the matched ZCTA; they neither count ZORI observations nor describe a specific property.
Timing and method set the practical limits of every comparison: ZORI has a June endpoint, ACS summarizes a five-year survey, and HUD is a fiscal-year administrative standard. Before comparing a property with any benchmark, verify the advertised monthly rent, bedroom designation, active availability, utilities included, lease term, recurring charges, and whether its address belongs in the relevant geography. Historical measures are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The remaining decision question is whether verified property terms align with the benchmark universe being used?