The main signal in 78229 is a split between rent direction and resale evidence. In June 2026, Zillow's ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, is $1,157 per month. It is 2.2% below its same-month one-year reading; the exact same-month three-year change is -2.5%, while the five-year change is +0.9%. Recent cooling therefore continues the three-year decline but breaks from the longer positive path. This is a backward-looking measurement, not a forecast, and the index is neither a lease series nor a bedroom-specific quote. Its current level is useful as a ZIP asking-rent signal, yet it cannot identify the rent, utilities, or lease terms for a particular home.
The historical file provides a substantial basis for reading that cooling, with 104 monthly observations and 100% coverage. Monthly return movement produces 2.8% annualized variability, which gives the current index some historical anchoring rather than making it a precise unit-level rent. Separately, the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown is 8.9%, showing that a current snapshot can sit within a meaningful prior decline. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,836 for momentum, 1,263 for stability, and 2,570 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These are descriptive discovery tools, not investment ratings, and all of the history measures remain backward-looking.
The matched Census ZCTA evidence answers a different question from Zillow. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS five-year survey, the ZCTA has 35,664 residents, median household income of $46,574, median gross rent of $1,292, 14,130 renter-occupied homes, and 2,271 owner-occupied homes; renters represent 86.2% of occupied homes. ACS median gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It should not be treated as a competing asking-rent quote against ZORI, because its population, timing, utility treatment, and survey design differ. The ACS estimates also carry source margins of error.
Using the current ZORI in a 30% income screen produces a required annual household income of $46,280, and the asking-rent-to-median-income calculation is 29.8%. That screen is arithmetic only: it is not advice, an affordability guarantee, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden measure adds an important but separate household outcome: 7,635 renter households reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent, equal to 54.0% of renter households. That burden rate cannot prove what any particular unit costs or whether a given household can pay it. Together, the figures show why a ZIP-wide asking-rent index below ACS gross rent does not erase measured renter-cost pressure in the occupied-home survey universe.
Bedroom figures require especially careful labeling. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $873 for a studio, $958 for one bedroom, the overall ZIP index for two bedrooms, $1,486 for three bedrooms, and $1,732 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD's current two-bedroom standard is $1,510, making the ZIP index 76.6% of that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR or SAFMR is bedroom-specific and useful for creating the local scaling ladder, but it is an administrative standard rather than asking rent. Neither the HUD value nor the modelled series establishes a payment, availability, or rent for a specific property.
Housing-stock evidence helps frame the rent and burden measures without converting vacancy into a leasing conclusion. The ACS counts 19,228 housing units, including 2,827 vacant units, for a 14.7% vacancy rate; 1,849 units fall in the survey's vacant-for-rent category. The structure counts include 5,597 units in large multifamily buildings, a relevant recorded stock category in this renter-heavy ZCTA. These are survey classifications, not a real-time inventory feed. In particular, a vacant-for-rent count does not demonstrate that a specific apartment is currently available, at the ZORI level, in acceptable condition, or offered with the same utilities and lease terms used in another source.
Wider comparisons place the ZIP below surrounding rent contexts but cannot replace ZIP evidence: the San Antonio city scope is $1,382, the Bexar County scope is $1,389, and the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX metro scope is $1,416. Each is a broader context value, not a substitute for the 78229 Zillow index or an indication that any ZIP property is discounted by a fixed amount. The ZIP's renter-heavy ACS tenure mix and its cooling asking-rent history should likewise remain local observations rather than being attributed to city, county, or metro conditions. The city, county, and metro figures are useful benchmarks only because their geographic scopes are explicitly wider.
Resale evidence creates the clearest counterpoint to the cooling rent path. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a median sold price of $208,453, up 7.8% year over year, with 48 homes sold and a median 75 days on market. Inventory is 132 homes and months of supply is 8.3; the average sale-to-list ratio is 95.7%, while 6.4% of sales closed above list. Those are for-sale market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The 6.7% annualized-ZORI-to-median-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Rising resale prices challenge a simple reading of rent cooling, while extended marketing time and below-list sale signals add a separate resale-market tension. Property-level review remains unresolved without unit bedroom count, included utilities, current asking-rent comparables, condition, lease terms, and directly comparable sale evidence; can those checks reconcile the rent and resale signals for a particular address?