Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation presents the clearest tension in 80202. The median sold price was $562,373, down 6.27% year over year; 64 homes sold, with a median 39 days on market. Inventory stood at 243 homes and months of supply reached 11.6, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 98% and just 3.23% of sales closed above list. Those are for-sale signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 4.38% cross-source screening ratio only; it does not measure operating costs, property income, or expected return. The resale price decline and elevated supply align with cooling rent evidence, although neither series establishes why the other moved.
At the stated Zillow history endpoint, the ZIP’s typical observed asking-rent index was $2,051. The exact same-month one-year change was -1.85%, the three-year annualized change was -2.33%, and the five-year annualized change was +0.64%. Thus, the latest annual decline confirms the intermediate cooling path but breaks from the modest positive longer-run path. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.60%, which supports some confidence that the current index is not based on a sparse series but still cautions against treating one rent snapshot as a fixed unit quote. Separately, the maximum drawdown was -8.47%, showing that the historical path experienced a materially deeper retreat than the latest one-year change. Coverage was 100% across 122 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,806 for momentum, 887 for stability, and 2,396 for the balanced measure; lower ranks place higher, but these backward-looking scores are not forecasts or recommendations.
For June 2026, Zillow ZORI describes a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a median lease signed by a particular household. For wider context only, Denver city’s asking-rent index was $1,877, Denver County’s context index was $1,889, and the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro context index was $1,930. The ZIP reading therefore exceeded each wider-geography context value, but those city, county, and metro figures do not replace the direct ZIP observation. The comparison is useful for scale, not proof that every building, bedroom count, concession package, or lease term in the ZIP is priced above its broader setting.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $2,309 with a $82 margin of error. That survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, making it a different universe from Zillow’s current asking-rent index; Zillow’s index was 88.83% of the ACS median gross rent and should not be read as a same-unit comparison. A 30% arithmetic screen converts the current ZIP index to required annual income of $82,040. Against reported median household income of $114,151, annualized asking rent equaled 21.56% of that income measure. This is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence about any household’s ability to pay. In the ACS renter sample, 3,836 of 9,489 renter households, or 40.43%, had gross-rent burdens of at least 30%; that aggregate burden result does not establish burden for a specific available unit.
Bedroom figures should be treated as modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. Scaling the $2,051 ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,613 for a studio, $1,722 for one bedroom, $2,051 for two bedrooms, $2,684 for three bedrooms, and $2,994 for four bedrooms. The equality between the modelled two-bedroom figure and the overall ZIP index is a scaling result, not evidence that observed two-bedroom asking rent equals the index. HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and the local ladder is used here only to distribute the ZIP-wide ZORI across bedroom sizes. Actual unit condition, included utilities, concessions, and lease terms can diverge from every modelled estimate.
The ACS housing-stock picture indicates a renter-oriented, multifamily-heavy matched ZCTA. Of 14,719 housing units, the reported vacancy rate was 16.58%, while renters represented 77.28% of occupied homes. Large multifamily structures contained 13,676 units, compared with 412 single-family units. These are survey-based stock and occupancy measures, not an inventory feed for currently marketable rentals. The vacancy figure includes multiple vacant-use categories and cannot show whether a particular apartment is available, what rent it commands, or whether it is offered with concessions. Still, the combination of a large multifamily stock, a comparatively high renter share, and the observed rent cooling gives important context for why a single current asking-rent index deserves careful unit-level validation.
The five-digit 80202 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA reference. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so geographic matching is useful but imperfect. The principal source limits also run beyond geography: Zillow is an asking-rent index, ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied homes, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin reports direct ZIP resale activity. Their collection windows, populations, and definitions differ. Before applying the record to a property, concrete checks should include the actual advertised rent and effective rent after concessions, bedroom count, lease duration, utility treatment, recurring fees, current availability, building-specific listing history, and whether the quoted unit matches the type represented by the modelled bedroom estimate.
The record is most coherent as a cooling screen with cross-source friction rather than a single affordability or pricing verdict. Current and intermediate Zillow rent history are declining, and the direct ZIP resale observation also shows softer pricing and ample for-sale supply. Yet the ACS gross-rent and burden measures describe occupied households under a different survey framework, while the income screen is only arithmetic. The resale ratio is similarly a screening comparison, not property economics. Backward-looking rent variability and drawdown mean that the current index is informative but not determinative for any unit. The key unresolved question is whether a specific property’s current effective quote, operating terms, and true availability actually resemble the ZIP-level signals summarized here.