Curated market comparison

New YorkChicago

Two of the largest US rental markets with sharply different entry price, gross-yield, affordability, supply, migration and climate evidence.

New York, NY cityscape
Chicago, IL cityscape
Quick answer

Choose by objective, not by one blended winner

These are the published fit calls from the verified decision memo. Use the full evidence below to decide whether the trade-off matches your property plan.

New YorkClimate risk
ChicagoCash flow · Affordability · Supply discipline
Deal-dependentEmployment
Take the five-question market-fit quiz
Decision memo

The trade-off, before the charts

Figure-checked analysis generated from only these two published records. No appreciation forecast and no property-level expense assumptions.

Chicago better fits buyers prioritizing cash flow and affordable entry. Its 7.59% gross yield exceeds New York’s 5.83%, while its $359,888 median home value is below New York’s $735,003. Chicago also has a 3.96 price-to-income measure versus 7.41 in New York. These differences let a buyer screen more properties within a fixed acquisition budget and begin with more gross rent relative to price, before property-level costs.

Employment is not a decisive separator: CES job growth was 0.15% in Chicago and 0.06% in New York. Chicago better fits supply discipline because permitting was 1.58 units per 1,000 residents, compared with 2.94 in New York. Both markets had negative migration, so neither should be underwritten on broad household inflows. Local submarket demand and lease evidence remain essential.

New York better fits lower measured climate-loss tolerance: its annual climate loss ratio was 0.1085%, compared with Chicago’s 0.1277%. Both records identify inland flood as the dominant hazard, so the market-level edge does not replace parcel review. The practical choice is Chicago for yield, entry price and tighter permitting; New York for the lower reported climate-loss measure. Employment stability depends on whether the buyer accepts similarly limited recent growth.

Evidence matrix

One question, two records

“n/a” means the current source did not publish a comparable value. It is never replaced with an estimate.

Decision evidenceNew York, NYChicago, IL
Composite scoresame published scoring framework48/10058/100
Median home valueZillow ZHVI$735,003$359,888
Median asking rentZillow ZORI$3,573$2,275
Gross rental yieldrent × 12 ÷ price5.8%7.6%
Price to household incomevalue ÷ ACS income7.41x3.96x
Annual job changeCES▲ 0.06%▲ 0.15%
Months of supplylatest Redfin period when publishedn/an/a
Net migrationIRS tax-return households−78,287−22,024
Expected annual building lossFEMA NRI market aggregate0.108%0.128%
Latest market momentum

Price and rent are not moving in lockstep

A shared zero-centred scale makes direction and magnitude comparable. This is a current annual change, not a forecast.

Latest annual home-value and asking-rent momentumNew York, NYLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE+4.1%ASKING RENT+4.5%-5.3%+5.3%Chicago, ILLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE+4.5%ASKING RENT+5.3%-5.3%+5.3%
Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Score fingerprint

The same total can hide a different market

Direct labels replace hover tooltips, so the full comparison remains visible in static HTML and print.

Component score differencesNew YorkCOMPOSITE SCORE48/100same national frameworkChicagoCOMPOSITE SCORE58/100same national frameworkCOMPONENT PROFILE0255075100Employment4650gap 4Rent trend6777gap 10Affordability119gap 18Supply discipline3677gap 41Climate safety7860gap 18New YorkChicago
Component percentiles use the same national scoring population and published weights on both market pages. See the source ledger below for the releases behind each component.
Price and rent history

Two growth paths, rebased to the same start

Each panel starts at 100. End labels expose whether rents or prices moved farther without asking the reader to chase a legend.

Indexed price and rent historyNew York, NYHOME VALUE INDEX144RENT INDEX1379512315020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared yearChicago, ILHOME VALUE INDEX145RENT INDEX1409512315020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared year
New York: price 144 · rent 137Chicago: price 145 · rent 140Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26; Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Fit by objective

There is no universal winner

Five underwriting questions are kept in one decision ledger instead of five disconnected cards.

01
Cash flowChicago

Chicago offers the stronger starting cash-flow screen, with a 7.59% gross yield versus 5.83% in New York. Chicago’s median asking rent is lower, but its $2,275 level is supported by a much lower acquisition price than New York’s $3,573 rent. For a buyer, that means more scheduled rent relative to purchase price in Chicago. Gross yield excludes operating costs, financing and vacancy, so property-level underwriting could narrow or reverse the market-level advantage.

02
AffordabilityChicago

Chicago is the clearer affordability fit. Its median home value is $359,888 versus $735,003 in New York, a supplied difference of $375,115. Chicago’s price-to-income measure is also 3.96, compared with 7.41 for New York. For a buyer, Chicago’s lower entry point expands the set of assets that may fit a fixed equity budget and reduces the amount of capital concentrated in one purchase. These market medians do not establish the price of an investable property.

03
EmploymentDepends on the deal

Chicago has slightly stronger CES job growth at 0.15%, while New York is at 0.06%. The supplied difference is 0.09 percentage points, so the evidence does not support treating either market as a high-growth employment story. A buyer prioritizing the better current reading may prefer Chicago; a buyer requiring a large labor-market cushion should treat both cautiously. CES is a market-level payroll measure and does not show employment conditions around a specific property or renter segment.

04
Supply disciplineChicago

Chicago better fits supply discipline, with 1.58 permits per 1,000 residents versus 2.94 in New York. New York also issued 58,152 total permits, compared with 14,826 in Chicago, though total counts reflect different market sizes. For a buyer, Chicago’s lower normalized permitting indicates less market-wide development pressure to absorb. It does not identify where units are being delivered, their tenure, bedroom mix or timing, so submarket pipelines must still be checked before underwriting rents.

05
Climate riskNew York

New York better fits a buyer seeking the lower measured climate-loss ratio: 0.1085% of building value annually versus 0.1277% in Chicago. Inland flood is the dominant hazard in both records, so neither market avoids flood exposure. For a buyer, New York’s lower market-level loss measure is a favorable screening signal, while Chicago requires somewhat greater caution. The figures do not provide parcel elevation, flood-zone status, building resilience, insurance terms or prior property claims.

Your priorities, verified evidence

Which market fits your plan?

Answer five questions to reweight the published fit calls above. Your answers change the emphasis—not the evidence, figures or market scores.

Question 1 of 5Cash flow
How important is current income in your market decision?

Choose how much the published cash-flow fit should influence your result.

Income and pressure

Where the trade-off becomes visible

Yield and jobs answer a different question than supply and migration. The page keeps both views separate instead of blending them into one score.

Income × employment

Gross yield against job growth

Gross yield and job growth positionNew YorkGROSS YIELD5.8%JOB CHANGE0.1%ChicagoGROSS YIELD7.6%JOB CHANGE0.1%MORE JOB MOMENTUMHIGHER YIELD + JOBSLOWER ON BOTH AXESMORE CURRENT YIELDNew YorkChicago4.9%8.6%GROSS YIELD - HIGHER TO THE RIGHT0.7%-0.5%
A position chart, not a forecast.Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employment · CES SM current · pulled 2026-07-26
Supply × demand

Capacity and household flow

Supply and migration balanceSUPPLY DISCIPLINEcomponent score and current listing supply0100New Yorklisting supply n/a36/100Chicagolisting supply n/a77/100NET HOUSEHOLD MIGRATIONIRS tax-return householdsOUTFLOW0INFLOWNew Yorknet tax-return households-78,287Chicagonet tax-return households-22,024
Supply and IRS migration remain separate measures.Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · BPS through 2026 · pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts · metro tracker through 2026-05-01 · pulled 2026-07-26IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26
Migration quality, not just volume

Adjust the flow for market size and mover income

Raw migration rewards a larger metro by construction. The rate below divides net mover tax returns by ACS population; the income bars then compare the adjusted gross income reported by arrivals and departures.

Migration volume adjusted for population and mover income qualityNew York, NYNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS-4.0PER 1,000 RESIDENTS-78,287 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$99,278LEAVING$112,556ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI-$13,278Chicago, ILNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS-2.4PER 1,000 RESIDENTS-22,024 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$84,568LEAVING$111,893ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI-$27,325
IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26Census ACS 5-year — population · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-26“Per 1,000 residents” is a transparent normalization, not a published IRS rate.
Underwriting boundary

What this comparison cannot decide

Market evidence narrows the search. It does not price a roof, an insurance policy, a loan or a specific lease.

  1. Gross yield is a market-level rent-to-price screen, not a property return. Verify achievable rent, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, utilities, financing and regulatory constraints for each candidate; none of those property-level inputs is published in these records.
  2. Both markets show negative net migration: New York at -78,287 tax-return households and Chicago at -22,024. This limits any demand case based on broad inflows and makes neighborhood-level household formation, tenant profile and leasing velocity important underwriting checks.
  3. Permits and climate-loss ratios are broad market measures. Confirm the competitive construction pipeline around each asset and obtain parcel-specific inland-flood, insurance and resilience evidence before relying on Chicago’s supply advantage or New York’s climate advantage.
From metro to local evidence

Open the counties inside each market

Metro averages can hide large local differences. These links are ordered by published ACS population and lead to county price, rent, listings, migration, investor and hazard evidence.