Curated market comparison

SeattlePortland

Pacific Northwest alternatives that expose a clear trade-off among price, employment, supply discipline and climate risk.

Seattle, WA cityscape
Portland, OR cityscape
Quick answer

Choose by objective, not by one blended winner

These are the published fit calls from the verified decision memo. Use the full evidence below to decide whether the trade-off matches your property plan.

SeattleEmployment
PortlandCash flow · Affordability · Climate risk
Deal-dependentSupply discipline
Take the five-question market-fit quiz
Decision memo

The trade-off, before the charts

Figure-checked analysis generated from only these two published records. No appreciation forecast and no property-level expense assumptions.

Seattle and Portland warrant different underwriting priorities rather than one universal ranking. Portland better fits buyers emphasizing entry affordability and headline gross yield: its median home value is $553092 and gross yield is 3.92%, versus Seattle at $745263 and 3.65%. That price gap lowers the capital committed before property-specific review, while Portland’s lower price-to-income measure indicates a less demanding purchase market. Seattle’s higher rent does not overcome its higher acquisition value at the market level.

Seattle better fits employment stability within this snapshot. CES employment changed -0.05% year over year there, compared with -1.85% in Portland. Seattle also recorded net migration of 2438 tax-return households, while Portland recorded -397. These indicators support deeper demand-side testing in Seattle, but neither proves durable tenant demand for a particular neighborhood. Portland’s permitting rate of 4.09 per 1000 residents is lower than Seattle’s 5.35, making Portland the better limited screen for lower current permitting intensity—not proof of constrained supply or stronger supply discipline.

Climate-risk tolerance creates another separation. Both records identify earthquake as the dominant hazard, while Portland’s climate loss ratio is 0.1614% versus Seattle’s 0.2309%. A buyer prioritizing the lower modeled loss measure should screen Portland first, subject to property-level hazard and insurance review. Overall, Portland better fits affordability, headline cash flow and lower measured climate loss; Seattle better fits recent employment stability. Supply remains conditional because comparable pipeline and inventory fields are not published for Seattle.

Evidence matrix

One question, two records

“n/a” means the current source did not publish a comparable value. It is never replaced with an estimate.

Decision evidenceSeattle, WAPortland, OR
Composite scoresame published scoring framework31/10027/100
Median home valueZillow ZHVI$745,263$553,092
Median asking rentZillow ZORI$2,269$1,805
Gross rental yieldrent × 12 ÷ price3.6%3.9%
Price to household incomevalue ÷ ACS income6.47x5.68x
Annual job changeCES▼ 0.05%▼ 1.85%
Months of supplylatest Redfin period when publishedn/a2.9 mo.
Net migrationIRS tax-return households+2,438−397
Expected annual building lossFEMA NRI market aggregate0.231%0.161%
Latest market momentum

Price and rent are not moving in lockstep

A shared zero-centred scale makes direction and magnitude comparable. This is a current annual change, not a forecast.

Latest annual home-value and asking-rent momentumSeattle, WALATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE-1.8%ASKING RENT+1.4%-1.8%+1.8%Portland, ORLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE-1.0%ASKING RENT+0.4%-1.8%+1.8%
Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Score fingerprint

The same total can hide a different market

Direct labels replace hover tooltips, so the full comparison remains visible in static HTML and print.

Component score differencesSeattleCOMPOSITE SCORE31/100same national frameworkPortlandCOMPOSITE SCORE27/100same national frameworkCOMPONENT PROFILE0255075100Employment424gap 38Rent trend229gap 13Affordability5668gap 12Supply discipline1052gap 42Climate safety1838gap 20SeattlePortland
Component percentiles use the same national scoring population and published weights on both market pages. See the source ledger below for the releases behind each component.
Price and rent history

Two growth paths, rebased to the same start

Each panel starts at 100. End labels expose whether rents or prices moved farther without asking the reader to chase a legend.

Indexed price and rent historySeattle, WAHOME VALUE INDEX146RENT INDEX12810012515020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared yearPortland, ORHOME VALUE INDEX133RENT INDEX12710012515020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared year
Seattle: price 146 · rent 128Portland: price 133 · rent 127Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26; Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Fit by objective

There is no universal winner

Five underwriting questions are kept in one decision ledger instead of five disconnected cards.

01
Cash flowPortland

Portland is the stronger market-level cash-flow screen because its gross yield is 3.92%, compared with Seattle’s 3.65%. Portland’s median asking rent is lower at $1805 versus $2269 in Seattle, but its much lower acquisition value produces the better headline yield. For a buyer, that means Portland deserves earlier property-level testing when rent relative to purchase price is the priority. Gross yield excludes operating costs, financing, vacancy and capital work, so it cannot establish actual distributable cash flow.

02
AffordabilityPortland

Portland better fits acquisition and resident affordability. Its median home value is $553092, while Seattle’s is $745263, with a supplied difference of $192171. Portland also has a price-to-income measure of 5.68 versus Seattle’s 6.47. For a buyer, the lower entry benchmark can widen the set of properties that fit a fixed capital budget and may reduce reliance on unusually high rents. Seattle’s higher median income does not reverse the published price-to-income comparison, though neighborhood-level pricing may differ materially.

03
EmploymentSeattle

Seattle better fits recent employment stability under the shared CES source. Its year-over-year job change is -0.05%, compared with -1.85% in Portland, a supplied difference of 1.8 percentage points. Seattle also shows net migration of 2438 tax-return households, while Portland shows -397. For a buyer, those readings justify prioritizing Seattle for deeper tenant-demand and employer-concentration review. Both employment readings are negative, however, and migration is a separate tax-return measure; neither confirms rent resilience in a specific submarket or building.

04
Supply disciplineDepends on the deal

Portland has the lower current permitting screen at 4.09 permits per 1000 residents, versus Seattle at 5.35. Its permits total is also 10322, compared with Seattle’s 21722, but totals reflect differently sized markets and should not drive the comparison alone. For a buyer, Portland’s lower per-capita rate supports checking whether future competing deliveries are lighter in the target submarket. It does not establish constrained permitting or superior supply discipline. Seattle’s months of supply and median days on market are not published, preventing a comparable pipeline-and-inventory conclusion.

05
Climate riskPortland

Portland better fits a buyer seeking the lower published climate-loss measure. Its climate loss ratio is 0.1614% of building value per year, compared with Seattle’s 0.2309%, with a supplied Seattle-minus-Portland difference of 0.0695 percentage points. Both records identify earthquake as the dominant hazard, so Portland is not a low-hazard substitute; it simply has the lower modeled loss ratio in these records. A buyer should use that distinction to prioritize insurance, seismic condition and site-specific hazard diligence rather than treating the market figure as a property quote.

Your priorities, verified evidence

Which market fits your plan?

Answer five questions to reweight the published fit calls above. Your answers change the emphasis—not the evidence, figures or market scores.

Question 1 of 5Cash flow
How important is current income in your market decision?

Choose how much the published cash-flow fit should influence your result.

Income and pressure

Where the trade-off becomes visible

Yield and jobs answer a different question than supply and migration. The page keeps both views separate instead of blending them into one score.

Income × employment

Gross yield against job growth

Gross yield and job growth positionSeattleGROSS YIELD3.6%JOB CHANGE-0.1%PortlandGROSS YIELD3.9%JOB CHANGE-1.8%MORE JOB MOMENTUMHIGHER YIELD + JOBSLOWER ON BOTH AXESMORE CURRENT YIELDSeattlePortland3.1%4.5%GROSS YIELD - HIGHER TO THE RIGHT0.9%-2.8%
A position chart, not a forecast.Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employment · CES SM current · pulled 2026-07-26
Supply × demand

Capacity and household flow

Supply and migration balanceSUPPLY DISCIPLINEcomponent score and current listing supply0100Seattlelisting supply n/a10/100Portland2.9 months listed52/100NET HOUSEHOLD MIGRATIONIRS tax-return householdsOUTFLOW0INFLOWSeattlenet tax-return households+2,438Portlandnet tax-return households-397
Supply and IRS migration remain separate measures.Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · BPS through 2026 · pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts · metro tracker through 2026-05-01 · pulled 2026-07-26IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26
Migration quality, not just volume

Adjust the flow for market size and mover income

Raw migration rewards a larger metro by construction. The rate below divides net mover tax returns by ACS population; the income bars then compare the adjusted gross income reported by arrivals and departures.

Migration volume adjusted for population and mover income qualitySeattle, WANET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS+0.6PER 1,000 RESIDENTS+2,438 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$94,231LEAVING$116,176ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI-$21,945Portland, ORNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS-0.2PER 1,000 RESIDENTS-397 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$76,820LEAVING$89,686ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI-$12,866
IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26Census ACS 5-year — population · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-26“Per 1,000 residents” is a transparent normalization, not a published IRS rate.
Underwriting boundary

What this comparison cannot decide

Market evidence narrows the search. It does not price a roof, an insurance policy, a loan or a specific lease.

  1. Gross yield is a market-level rent-to-value measure, not a property cash-flow result. Seattle and Portland may differ in taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, utilities, financing and required capital work, but those fields are not published here. Underwrite each candidate’s actual lease income, recurring costs, near-term repairs and debt terms before relying on Portland’s headline yield advantage.
  2. The supply evidence is incomplete and asymmetric. Portland reports 2.9 months of supply and 19 median days on market, while comparable Seattle fields are not published. Permit rates show current authorization intensity, not timing, cancellations, unit type, geography or eventual completion. Use the comparison only to select submarkets for pipeline research, not to declare either market structurally constrained.
  3. The climate loss ratios are market-level modeled measures and both markets list earthquake as the dominant hazard. They do not disclose a building’s construction type, retrofit status, soil conditions, flood or wildfire exposure, deductible, exclusions, premium or insurability. Obtain property-specific hazard reports, seismic review and insurance indications before converting Portland’s lower ratio into an underwriting benefit.
From metro to local evidence

Open the counties inside each market

Metro averages can hide large local differences. These links are ordered by published ACS population and lead to county price, rent, listings, migration, investor and hazard evidence.