Archer County presents a price-validation problem rather than a clear acquisition signal: buyers who can verify unit economics and flood coverage should investigate, while those relying on county averages should be cautious. Zillow’s county reading (2026-06) places median home value at $248,307, up 3.95% year over year. FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 2.37%. Both move upward, but they are different vintages and methods: FHFA is an appreciation index, not a home value, and neither is a closed-sale comp.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,136 per month is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for rent in that calculation. The effective property-tax rate is 1.21%, making tax treatment a carrying-cost check rather than an assumed offset. Realtor.com’s MLS evidence (2026-06) combines expanded active listings with a 47.36% year-over-year median listing-price increase and 28.57% of listings reduced. These are visible supply, seller-concession and asking-price measures—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand by themselves.
Demand evidence is mixed but does not establish renter demand. Net migration was 47 tax-return households, and average AGI of incoming movers exceeded that of outgoing movers by $23,121; this indicates favorable mover composition but not tenure, occupancy or lease demand. QCEW measures annual covered employment at county workplaces, not resident employment, unemployment or a forecast; Natural resources and mining is its largest disclosed private supersector, not a description of the whole economy. The reported investor share was 7.41%, or eight of 108 purchases, limiting observed non-occupant mortgage participation but not describing cash buyers or all buyer competition.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.12% of building value expected lost annually. That county-level model should prompt parcel-level flood-zone, insurance, deductible and replacement-cost checks, not a dollar-loss estimate. Market rents, unit mix, closed-sale comparables, property-specific tax assessments, and flood-insurance terms are not published in the record. Their absence prevents gross-yield, net-carrying-cost and acquisition-price underwriting.