Leelanau’s underwriting tension is conflicting price signals: Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $662,102, up 0.60%, while FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 9.47%. They are neither the same labeled period nor equivalent measures: the HPI tracks repeat transactions, not a dollar home value. Rent-dependent buyers should investigate income coverage, and buyers treating the index as current value growth should be cautious; neither establishes a closed-sale price.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,497 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not market asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. The recorded price must also be tested against the 0.68% effective property-tax rate and $3,118 median annual tax. Without market rent, lease terms, operating expenses, or property-specific tax bills, the record cannot establish rent coverage, net yield, or a carrying-cost margin.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing-market evidence shows 125 active listings, down 4.94%, with a 34-day median marketing time and 14.83% of listings price-reduced. Less visible supply sits alongside seller concessions; it does not prove buyer demand or closed-sale pricing. Tax-return data show a positive net household inflow and higher average AGI for in-movers than out-movers, but neither proves tenant demand. Investor purchases were 20 of 287 total purchases, a limited but present non-owner-occupant buyer cohort.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled building-value loss is 0.08% annually; that county-level estimate is not a parcel loss, insurance quote, or dollar projection. QCEW shows annual covered employment at county workplaces and a rising covered-worker wage, with leisure and hospitality the largest disclosed private supersector; it is neither resident employment nor unemployment. Next checks are parcel flood exposure and insurance, signed market rents, operating costs, tax bills, and closed-sale comparables; their absence prevents a property-level return, resilience, and exit-price conclusion.