McLennan County, TX

McLennan County is an investigate-not-underwrite-on-headline-yield case: June 2026 Zillow county data show a $266,223 median home value, down 0.51% year over year, alongside $1,433 monthly median asking rent and a reported 6.46% gross yield before costs. This price/rent divergence warrants diligence from operators able to test local expenses and lease quality; buyers dependent on rapid appreciation or thin carrying-cost margins should be cautious. The Zillow rent is measured market asking rent, not a subsidy benchmark.

Housing economics are tempered by carrying costs. Published asking rent is 15.6% above HUD’s $1,240 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent, but FMR is a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate and cannot validate either the rent or yield. The effective property-tax rate is 1.43%, a direct drag that must be layered on the stated pre-cost yield. Vacancy, repairs, insurance, financing, and utility data are not published, so net operating income, debt coverage, and cash flow cannot be concluded.

Realtor.com MLS listing-market evidence in June 2026 points to visible choice, not a confirmed demand collapse: 1,435 active listings, a 5.56% decline in median listing price, and price reductions on 22% of listings. These are asking-price, supply, marketing, and seller-concession measures—not closed-sale pricing or standalone proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was modestly positive, and inbound movers had higher average income than outbound movers. Non-occupant mortgage purchases accounted for 12.98% of purchase mortgages. The combination suggests competition should be checked at the neighborhood level, not assumed across the county.

FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose; it indicates positive indexed appreciation in its own period but is neither a home value nor directly comparable with Zillow’s June 2026 observation. QCEW’s 2025 annual covered employment and weekly wages increased, while Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector; these are county workplace measures, not resident employment, unemployment, a forecast, or the whole economy. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with modeled annual climate loss of 0.07% of building value. Flood-zone, insurance-quote, property-condition, closed-sale, and submarket-rent evidence are not published, preventing parcel-level hazard, exit-price, and net-return conclusions.