ZIP 76706 enters June 2026 with a Zillow ZIP-level ZORI of $1,439, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, after a 1.16% year-over-year decline. For wider context only, Zillow’s city scope for Waco is $1,369, its county scope for McLennan County is $1,433, and its metro scope for Waco, TX is $1,430. The ZIP index therefore sits modestly above each broader asking-rent context, while the matched ACS median gross rent is $1,149. ZIP 76706 is both Zillow’s market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA label; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The affordability tension is sharper when the asking index is set against the ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year household-income and renter-burden evidence. Median household income is $41,656, while paying the current $1,439 monthly asking-rent index at a 30% rent-to-income threshold requires $57,560 annually. That produces a 41.5% asking-rent-to-median-income screen, rather than a finding about any household’s actual lease payment. ACS also reports 5,622 of 9,093 renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent, or 61.8%. Those ACS measures are survey estimates for occupied renter homes, with reported margins of error, and median gross rent includes selected utilities. The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
Recent rent direction breaks from the longer historical path rather than confirming it. Same-month Zillow ZORI history shows a 1.16% annual decline over one year and a 0.13% annual decline over three years, but a 4.03% annual gain over five years. The supplied history classifies the ZIP as high variability. Monthly rent changes have shown 3.80% annualized variability, so one current ZORI reading deserves less confidence as a stable representation of near-term conditions than a smoother series would warrant. Its maximum drawdown was 4.58%, documenting a meaningful historical pullback from a prior high. Coverage is complete across 114 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks are 2,625 for momentum, 2,487 for stability, and 2,804 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom ladder is useful for sizing the ZIP-wide index, but it does not create observed bedroom-rent comps. Modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $992 for a studio, $1,097 for one bedroom, $1,439 for two bedrooms, $2,001 for three bedrooms, and $2,414 for four bedrooms. They scale the overall ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder; each is a modelled estimate, never a measured bedroom rent. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $973, making the ZIP ZORI 147.9% of that administrative standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is bedroom-specific and administratively defined, not asking rent, so neither it nor the modelled ladder establishes what an available unit in a given bedroom category is actually being offered for.
The matched ACS ZCTA housing inventory provides structural context rather than a listing-level availability signal. It contains 17,106 housing units, of which 2,199 are vacant, yielding a 12.9% overall vacancy rate. Renter occupancy exceeds owner occupancy in this ZCTA, and the stock includes 8,005 single-family units alongside 3,147 units in large multifamily structures. That mix helps describe the universe underlying the area’s housing counts, but it does not identify rental quality, lease terms, asking prices, or the location of available units. Likewise, total vacancy cannot prove that a particular unit is vacant for rent, and the area’s rent-burden result cannot prove the financial circumstances of a particular renter.
The direct ZIP resale observation supplies a separate, potentially cautionary market signal. In Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale window, the median sold price was $252,443, down 7.19% year over year; 100 homes sold and median marketing time was 50 days. Inventory was 191 homes and months of supply reached 5.8. Sale-to-list evidence remained below asking: the average sale-to-list ratio was 96.9%, and 8.26% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale and resale observations, not rental transactions or rental comps. Their cooling signals broadly confirm the recent rent decline and historical drawdown, while the rent-to-income screen remains comparatively strained. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 6.84%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Source differences set firm limits on any combined reading. Zillow ZORI follows observed asking-rent conditions across a blended rental mix; ACS describes occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities in gross rent; HUD provides an administrative standard; and Redfin observes ZIP resale activity. The city, county, and metro figures are wider-context benchmarks, not substitutes for a ZIP measure. The historical ZORI series is useful for documenting prior movement and variability, but it cannot establish future rents. Similarly, the resale price and supply figures can describe sales-market liquidity and pricing signals, yet they cannot be translated into a property’s operating expenses, tenant demand, or realized rental income.
A property-level review would need evidence the aggregate datasets cannot supply: the advertised rent for the actual bedroom count, lease duration, which utilities are included or billed separately, fees, concessions, availability status, condition, and the timing of the listing. For a prospective sale comparison, the specific property’s transaction status, list changes, sale terms, and physical characteristics would also need separate verification. The ZORI-to-price screen should remain a broad comparison only because its numerator and denominator come from different source universes and may reflect different property mixes. The unresolved question is therefore not whether the ZIP statistics describe every unit, but whether the particular unit’s current terms and characteristics align with the relevant evidence universe.