Poquoson city presents a yield-versus-resilience tension: the Zillow county observation labeled 2026-06 puts median home value at $471,047, while published median asking market rent is $2,304 per month and reported gross yield is 5.87% before costs. This merits lease-focused investigation, whereas appreciation-first buyers should be cautious. Zillow's value measure rose 1.22% year over year at that observation; FHFA's repeat-transaction HPI rose 4.65% in annual 2025 data. Both point upward, but they are different vintages and methods; neither is a forecast, and the HPI is not a home value.
HUD should not be substituted for rent: market asking rent exceeds the HUD FMR, but FMR is a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate. The reported gross yield uses market rent and price, yet it excludes operating costs. An effective property-tax rate of 0.92% and median annual tax of $3,690 are visible carrying costs. Insurance, maintenance, utilities, vacancy, financing, and property-specific flood costs are not published, preventing net-yield and payment-coverage underwriting.
Realtor.com's MLS evidence shows 69 active listings, 74.68% more than a year earlier, with 26.68% price-reduced. These are visible supply and seller-concession signals—not closed sales or proof of buyer demand alone. Net migration was positive, and entrants' average income was $1,307 above leavers', an income-composition signal lacking household and timing detail. Investors made 21 of 291 purchases, establishing a measurable non-owner buyer presence that needs submarket and property-type testing.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard; modeled annual building-value loss is 0.18%. It is a modeled expectation, not observed loss, and cannot be converted to a dollar cost here. QCEW annual covered workplace employment edged down; leisure and hospitality was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. QCEW is neither resident employment nor unemployment. Verify parcel flood zone and elevation, insurance and claims history, lease and vacancy comps, and current sale concessions. Those missing checks prevent a property-level conclusion on net income, liquidity, and hazard-adjusted carrying costs.