Saluda County’s decision tension is a positive current-value signal against a negative repeat-sales signal, making it an investigate-before-bidding market rather than a clean appreciation case. Zillow’s county median home value was $210,737 in 2026-06, 2.32% above its prior-year observation. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI declined 3.49% year over year. FHFA is an index, not a home value; its method and vintage differ from Zillow’s, so the rates cannot be merged. Buyers relying on resale appreciation should obtain recent closed-sale comps.
Rental underwriting remains incomplete. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,276 monthly, but it is a payment standard rather than asking market rent; with no published market rent, gross yield cannot be computed. Realtor.com MLS listing evidence shows median asking prices up 34.73% while 26.04% of listings had reductions. Those are seller-side asking-price and concession signals, not closed sales or standalone proof of buyer demand. The 0.51% effective property-tax rate and $747 median annual tax inform carrying-cost screening, but parcel assessment and tax treatment remain unreported.
Demand support is mixed. Annual QCEW covered employment at county workplaces declined 4.16%; this is neither resident employment nor unemployment. Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the entire economy. Tax-return migration was negative by 9 households, although inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $8,097. Non-occupant investors represented 4.62% of 130 purchases, indicating limited recorded investor-mortgage participation; the record does not describe cash buyers. Together, softer employment and slight out-migration temper the higher-income mover signal and do not establish tenant depth.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, consistent with modeled climate loss of 0.15% of building value per year. This modeled county-level ratio is not a parcel flood determination or an insurance quote. The key next checks are market-rent and lease comps, vacancy and operating costs, recent closed sales, and parcel flood zone, elevation, insurance, and tax assessment. Their absence prevents calculation of gross yield, validation of resale pricing, and a property-level hazard-adjusted carrying-cost conclusion; county evidence cannot settle neighborhood or asset-level performance.