Union County, NC

Union County presents a valuation-versus-cash-flow timing tension suited to investors who can underwrite property-level costs and are cautious about near-term resale assumptions. Zillow’s county median home value was $456,365 in 2026-06, down 0.41% year over year, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 3.49% in its 2025 annual observation. These are not the same vintage or measure: FHFA is an index, not a dollar home value, so neither series can be averaged. The conflict warrants local comparable-sale checks rather than a directional price call.

Measured market asking rent is $2,094 per month and the supplied gross yield is 5.51% before costs. The effective property-tax rate is 0.57%, a recurring charge that narrows the distance between gross and net income. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,686 per month, but it is a payment standard rather than asking rent and cannot replace measured rent in yield work. This makes purchase basis, tax assessment, insurance, repairs and vacancy decisive; no net yield is published.

Demand evidence is constructive but not unequivocal. Net tax-return migration was positive, and moving-in households’ average income exceeded moving-out households’ by $9,732. QCEW also reports increases in annual covered jobs and covered-worker wages at county workplaces; it is not resident employment or a forecast, and trade, transportation, and utilities is only the largest disclosed private supersector. Meanwhile Realtor.com’s MLS visible supply rose 14.18% and 22.96% of listings had price cuts, conditions consistent with more seller concessions, not evidence of closed-sale demand. Investors accounted for 8.15% of 3,607 purchases, so the reported measure does not establish the cash-buyer mix.

Inland flood is dominant, and modeled climate loss equals 0.17% of building value per year; it is modeled exposure, not an insurance quote or realized loss. The thesis could fail if parcel flood zone and insurance costs exceed underwriting, if visible MLS softening becomes closed-sale weakness, or if higher-income in-migration does not translate into renters for the target submarket. Missing vacancy, lease concessions, operating expenses, insurance quotes, sales comps, debt terms and parcel-level hazard data prevent a net-cash-flow or exit-value conclusion.