Union County’s decision tension is an appreciation-positive but rent-softening setup: Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value gained 1.38% while its median asking rent fell 0.07%, although the supplied gross yield is 4.93% before costs. It merits investigation by buyers who can verify property-level rents and expenses; underwriting that depends on rising rents or appreciation warrants caution. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased. That supports positive price direction, but it is an index—not a dollar value—and its method and vintage cannot be merged with Zillow’s.
Market rent, rather than HUD FMR, underlies the stated yield. HUD FMR is $1,433 per month and the county’s measured asking rent sits 20.2% above it, but FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate. The effective property-tax rate is 1.14%, with median annual tax of $3,947, a carrying-cost check against the gross yield. Insurance, repairs, vacancy, financing terms, and property-specific assessments are not published, preventing a net-yield or cash-flow conclusion.
Demand evidence is mixed. QCEW’s 2025 covered workplace employment grew; it is not resident employment or unemployment, and Professional and business services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Tax-return migration recorded net inflow of 589 households, with average AGI of $102,901 for movers in and $87,310 for movers out—a reported $15,591 gap. Investor purchase mortgages were 33 of 1,148, or 2.87%, indicating limited observed non-owner participation. Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS evidence shows active listings rose 19.13%; listing prices, marketing time and reductions are asking-market signals, not sale prices or proof of buyer demand.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual building-value loss equals 0.12%, so flood exposure belongs in site-level insurance, elevation, drainage and loss-history diligence rather than a countywide discount. The record lacks property type, rent distribution, occupancy, closed-sale comps, insurance quotes, flood-zone status, and lease or expense details. Those omissions prevent testing whether gross yield survives operating costs or whether visible MLS supply translates into achievable acquisition pricing.