Wagoner County’s decision tension is that a supplied 6.8% gross yield sits on a $286,092 median home value, while flood exposure, listing concessions, and unmeasured operating costs can materially change net economics. The county merits further work by buyers who can test parcel flood conditions and lease evidence; those unable to price insurance, taxes, and vacancy should treat the headline yield cautiously. Zillow and Realtor observations are labeled 2026-06, whereas FHFA and QCEW are labeled 2025.
Measured median asking rent is $1,621 per month, and the supplied yield is based on market rent before costs. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,217 per month, a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate; it must not substitute for market rent or create a yield. The effective property-tax rate is 0.79%, a direct carrying-cost input, although assessment, insurance, and maintenance evidence are absent. FHFA’s separately labeled repeat-transaction HPI increased 2.75%; it is not a home value and cannot be averaged with Zillow’s differently timed and methodologically distinct county reading.
Realtor’s MLS snapshot showed 334 active listings, a median 52 days on market, and a 25.46% price-reduced share. These are visible asking-market supply, marketing time, and seller concessions—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. QCEW covered workplace employment rose in its annual reading; it is neither resident employment nor an unemployment series. Net migration was 575, with incoming movers’ average AGI $10,452 above outgoing movers’. Investor mortgages to non-occupants represented 6.25% of 1,649 purchases, limiting but not eliminating that competitive channel.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected climate loss equals 0.19% of building value per year; this county-level model is not a parcel flood determination or an insurance quote. The record lacks property-level flood-zone and insurance terms, submarket rent comps, vacancy, operating expenses, financing terms, and closed-sale comps. Those omissions prevent a net-yield, debt-coverage, purchase-basis, or neighborhood-demand conclusion; they are the next underwriting checks.