Williamsburg city presents a cash-flow-versus-price-direction tension. The Zillow observation labeled 2026-06 reports a $418,586 median home value, but separately dated FHFA evidence challenges a simple appreciation reading. This merits investigation by landlords who can verify current leasing, property-level flood exposure and operating costs; buyers relying on uncomplicated appreciation evidence should be cautious. Listing-market evidence is absent.
Measured median asking rent is $2,000 per month and gross yield is 5.73% before costs. This is market rent, not HUD's $1,713 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent payment standard; FMR cannot substitute as an asking-rent estimate. The effective property-tax rate is 0.59%, with $2,518 median annual tax, so the headline yield must absorb taxes as well as insurance, repairs, vacancy, management and financing, none of which is published here. Those unknown asset-level costs prevent a net-cash-flow conclusion.
Workplace evidence is constructive but concentrated. QCEW's 2025 annual average records 12,699 covered jobs, up 7.42%, and names Leisure and hospitality as the largest disclosed private supersector; it is not resident employment, unemployment or a forecast. Tax-return migration was net positive by 58 households, while inbound movers' average AGI exceeded outbound movers' by $18,250. Investor mortgages accounted for 13.56% of 118 purchases, showing some non-owner competition but not bid intensity, buyer demand, or investor ownership stock.
FHFA's repeat-transaction HPI for 2025 declined 8.43%. It is an index rather than a dollar home price and cannot be averaged with Zillow's median-value change because their methods and supplied dates differ. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with modeled annual building-value loss of 0.07%. Missing Realtor.com listing price, active inventory, days on market and price-reduction data prevents a finding on visible supply, seller concessions or marketing time; flood-zone status, insurance quotes and property condition are also needed to underwrite risk-adjusted carrying cost.