Heber, UT
Heber merits investigation by buyers who can tolerate low initial income return and negotiate patiently; yield-focused or highly leveraged investors should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Heber merits investigation by buyers who can tolerate low initial income return and negotiate patiently; yield-focused or highly leveraged investors should avoid it. Median asking rent rose 11%, but the 3.58% gross yield leaves limited room before operating and financing costs.
The opportunity is strong rent performance alongside 0.74% job growth. However, the median home value is $1,154,909, equal to 9.08 times median household income, while rent consumes 32.55% of income. That combination supports tenant demand but constrains local purchasing power.
Buyers have leverage: 8.4 months of supply, 52 median days on market, and 17.11% of listings with price drops indicate a market where selectivity matters. The main underwriting risks are ample permitted construction and inland-flood exposure, so investigate property-level competition and hazard costs before bidding.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
Does current rent support the median acquisition price?
How much negotiating leverage does a buyer have?
Are migration and renter demand pointing in the same direction?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Heber as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Rents versus prices, indexed to 2019
Both series start at 100. The gap between the lines is the investment case, and which line is closing it tells you what kind of market this is.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 74 | 30% | 22.20 |
| Rent trend | 96 | 25% | 24.00 |
| Affordability | 11 | 15% | 1.65 |
| Supply pressure | 1 | 15% | 0.15 |
| Climate risk | 25 | 15% | 3.75 |
| Published score | 52 | ||
Job: LAUS employment growth of 0.74% -> a positive demand signal, but too modest to offset weak yield or justify aggressive rent assumptions.
Rent: Median asking rent of $3,449 grew 11% -> current rental momentum is the clearest opportunity, although the record does not establish whether that pace is durable.
Affordability: A $1,154,909 median value equals 9.08 times median household income -> the high acquisition burden narrows the buyer pool and makes entry price central to returns.
Supply: 1,018 permits, or 12.79 per thousand residents, accompany 8.4 months of listings -> buyers can negotiate, but added inventory may increase competition for both resale and tenants.
Climate: The inland-flood hazard accompanies a 0.1932% annual building-value loss ratio -> property-specific flood exposure, insurance terms, and mitigation needs belong in due diligence.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- Income return may disappoint because the published gross yield is 3.58% before operating costs and financing; the record does not publish net operating income, expense ratios, or debt terms.
- Supply conditions may weaken pricing power: listings stand at 8.4 months, 17.11% show price drops, and permitting totals 1,018 units, so a buyer could face both resale competition and additional rental alternatives.
- Demand and ownership capacity are not uniformly strong: net migration is negative 75 households, job growth is 0.74%, and the price-to-income ratio is 9.08, which may limit the depth of local demand at prevailing prices.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Heber
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heber, UT (Target) | 52 | $1155k | $3,449 | 3.6% | ▲ 0.7% |
| Santa Cruz, CA | 44 | $1162k | $3,609 | 3.7% | ▲ 0.7% |
| Jackson, WY | 43 | $1407k | $3,475 | 3.0% | ▼ 0.3% |
| Napa, CA | 32 | $886k | $2,815 | 3.8% | ▲ 0.7% |
| Edwards, CO | 38 | $1315k | $3,285 | 3.0% | ▼ 0.5% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |