Provo, UT
Provo merits investigation by buyers who prioritize employment momentum and manageable renter costs; cash-flow-first investors or buyers unwilling to assess construction exposure should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Provo merits investigation by buyers who prioritize employment momentum and manageable renter costs; cash-flow-first investors or buyers unwilling to assess construction exposure should avoid it. Jobs rose 1.39% year over year, while the median home value is $548,061 and gross yield is 4.05%.
The opportunity is a demand base with median household income of $100,704, rent equal to 22.01% of income, and positive net migration of 2,762 households. Median asking rent rose 2.18%, slightly faster than the 1.83% increase in home value; that spread is a calculation, not proof of improving returns.
The risk is weak entry yield alongside active construction and buyer negotiating signals. Permitting reached 8.47 per thousand residents, inventory was 3.6 months, and 34.8% of listings had price drops. Earthquake is the dominant hazard, so property-level insurance terms and resilience require review; those costs are not published.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
Is household migration positive?
Did incoming movers report higher average income than outgoing movers?
How much negotiating room is visible in listings?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Provo as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Rents versus prices, indexed to 2019
Both series start at 100. The gap between the lines is the investment case, and which line is closing it tells you what kind of market this is.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 90 | 30% | 27.00 |
| Rent trend | 31 | 25% | 7.75 |
| Affordability | 69 | 15% | 10.35 |
| Supply pressure | 20 | 15% | 3.00 |
| Climate risk | 24 | 15% | 3.60 |
| Published score | 52 | ||
CES jobs rose 1.39% year over year -> employment is the clearest demand-supportive signal.
Median asking rent rose 2.18% while gross yield was 4.05% -> rent growth is positive, but entry cash flow may be limited relative to price.
Rent was 22.01% of median household income, while price was 5.44 times income -> renting looks manageable for households, but ownership entry is demanding.
Permits totaled 6,082, or 8.47 per thousand residents, and inventory was 3.6 months -> buyers must assess both resale availability and permitted additions.
The annual building-value loss ratio was 0.1981%, and earthquake is the dominant hazard -> aggregate loss data do not replace property-level earthquake and insurance review.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- A 4.05% gross yield could leave little room after operating costs, which are not published.
- The 6,082 permits create exposure to added competition if the permitted units are built.
- Earthquake is the dominant hazard, while property-specific insurance and retrofit costs are not published.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Provo
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provo, UT (Target) | 52 | $548k | $1,847 | 4.0% | ▲ 1.4% |
| Greeley, CO | 53 | $498k | $1,758 | 4.2% | ▲ 1.6% |
| Salt Lake City, UT | 52 | $567k | $1,638 | 3.5% | ▲ 1.3% |
| Reno, NV | 63 | $574k | $2,004 | 4.2% | ▲ 1.9% |
| Vallejo, CA | 39 | $580k | $2,438 | 5.0% | ▲ 0.5% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |