County Rent Pressure Atlas: where rent change outruns wages
Where is Zillow county rent change running faster than BLS workplace wage change, and what do renter burden and housing vacancy add?
A four-measure county atlas that keeps market asking-rent change, workplace wage change, renter cost burden and total housing vacancy separate. The gap is a research signal, not an affordability score.
- Counties compared
- 1,013 complete direct rent, wage and ACS context
- Rent > wage change
- 441 all counties above the parity line
- Rent up / wages down
- 18 strict opposite-sign pressure cases
- Median renter burden
- 49.0% unweighted median across included counties
A rent-wage gap is a pressure flag, not an affordability verdict
The complete direct intersection contains 1,013 counties. Zillow rent change is greater than QCEW average-weekly-wage change in 441 of them. Within that group, 18 counties have the stricter combination of positive rent change and negative workplace wage change. In the remaining 572, wage change is equal to or ahead of rent change.
The median county gap is -0.5%. That middle reading is slightly on the wage-ahead side even though the upper tail is wide. Taylor County, TX has the largest current gap at 37.5%: Zillow rent changes 41.7% while QCEW average weekly wages change 4.3%. Its ACS renter-burden share is 51.6%. The row is preserved as reported evidence, not smoothed into a national trend or treated as a forecast.
The change gap answers whether two series are moving at the same rate. ACS renter burden answers how many renter households already cross a cost threshold. Neither measure can stand in for the other.
Across the included set, the median renter-burden share is 49.0%, while median total-housing vacancy is 8.7%. Vacancy includes seasonal, for-sale and other empty units, so it must not be read as rental availability. At the opposite end of the ranked gap, Campbell County, VA records a -27.4% rent-minus-wage gap. Together, the two tails show why the atlas keeps change, burden, vacancy and employment separate before a reader opens the county evidence and moves to property-level underwriting.
Rent change versus workplace wage change
Above the diagonal, Zillow rent change is running ahead of QCEW average-weekly-wage change. The gap is not an affordability score.
The first 24 rows, with a path to the underlying market
| Rank | County | Rent YoY | Wage YoY | Gap | Renter burden | Total vacancy | Jobs YoY | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor County, TXZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 41.7% | 4.3% | 37.5% | 51.6% | 11.7% | 0.9% | County evidence |
| 2 | Stephenson County, ILZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 36.9% | 2.0% | 34.9% | 43.3% | 9.3% | 0.3% | County evidence |
| 3 | Crook County, ORZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 1.3% | -25.1% | 26.4% | 56.6% | 8.6% | -1.7% | County evidence |
| 4 | Indiana County, PAZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 25.1% | 3.6% | 21.5% | 49.1% | 13.7% | 0.9% | County evidence |
| 5 | Ouachita Parish, LAZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 20.1% | 3.8% | 16.3% | 58.4% | 13.6% | 0.5% | County evidence |
| 6 | Winona County, MNZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 18.6% | 2.9% | 15.7% | 50.9% | 7.3% | -0.4% | County evidence |
| 7 | Calcasieu Parish, LAZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 17.6% | 2.2% | 15.4% | 52.3% | 18.4% | 0.7% | County evidence |
| 8 | Ashland County, OHZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 17.1% | 3.2% | 13.9% | 42.5% | 8.2% | -1.6% | County evidence |
| 9 | St. Lawrence County, NYZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 16.8% | 3.2% | 13.5% | 50.5% | 19.8% | -0.2% | County evidence |
| 10 | Muskogee County, OKZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 16.1% | 2.7% | 13.4% | 48.7% | 12.3% | -1.2% | County evidence |
| 11 | Summit County, UTZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 16.9% | 3.6% | 13.3% | 36.3% | 40.8% | 2.1% | County evidence |
| 12 | Harvey County, KSZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 14.1% | 1.3% | 12.8% | 37.7% | 6.5% | -0.2% | County evidence |
| 13 | Oswego County, NYZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 15.5% | 3.5% | 12.0% | 50.8% | 13.9% | 1.0% | County evidence |
| 14 | Kauai County, HIZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 17.2% | 5.5% | 11.7% | 52.0% | 22.4% | 1.4% | County evidence |
| 15 | Chautauqua County, NYZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 15.0% | 3.4% | 11.6% | 49.5% | 19.7% | -0.7% | County evidence |
| 16 | West Baton Rouge Parish, LAZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 9.4% | -1.9% | 11.4% | 39.1% | 9.0% | 0.5% | County evidence |
| 17 | Orangeburg County, SCZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 0.9% | -10.0% | 10.9% | 54.4% | 20.3% | -2.6% | County evidence |
| 18 | Rensselaer County, NYZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 5.2% | -5.7% | 10.9% | 47.5% | 10.5% | -0.4% | County evidence |
| 19 | Brown County, SDZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 14.5% | 3.9% | 10.6% | 45.8% | 10.0% | -1.1% | County evidence |
| 20 | Belknap County, NHZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 11.3% | 0.7% | 10.5% | 49.8% | 32.5% | 0.2% | County evidence |
| 21 | Hancock County, OHZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 9.2% | -1.0% | 10.1% | 36.7% | 6.8% | -0.7% | County evidence |
| 22 | Hawaii County, HIZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 16.6% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 51.6% | 18.4% | 0.1% | County evidence |
| 23 | Worcester County, MDZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 12.3% | 2.8% | 9.4% | 55.3% | 57.6% | -0.1% | County evidence |
| 24 | Athens County, OHZillow 2026-06 · QCEW 2025 | 11.0% | 1.8% | 9.3% | 57.7% | 13.1% | 1.0% | County evidence |
The visible table is intentionally limited for reading. The CSV contains every row that passes the printed inclusion rule.
Inclusion first, interpretation second.
Include every current Census county with direct Zillow year-over-year rent change, BLS QCEW average-weekly-wage and covered-employment change, and Census ACS renter-burden and total-housing-vacancy shares. Rank by Zillow rent change minus QCEW wage change, highest first.
Methodology version: v4Method
- Rent-wage gap subtracts annual QCEW average-weekly-wage change from current Zillow county asking-rent change; the two source periods remain visible.
- Renter burden is the ACS share of renter households with computed gross rent at or above 30 percent of household income; vacancy is the ACS share of all housing units vacant.
- Rows are classified from the two change signs and their gap. Employment, burden and vacancy remain counter-signals and are never averaged into a score.
Counter-signals
- QCEW wages are averages for covered jobs located in the county, not the incomes of renter households who live there.
- Renter burden is a level while the Zillow and QCEW measures are changes; a high gap does not prove that affordability deteriorated by the same amount.
- Total housing vacancy includes seasonal, for-sale and other vacant units, so it is not a rental vacancy rate.
Limitations
- Zillow, QCEW and ACS releases cover different periods; this is a current joined screen rather than a synchronized causal study.
- Average weekly wage can move because the mix of covered jobs changed, even when individual workers did not receive the published change.
- County-wide measures can hide large differences among cities, neighborhoods, property types and rent bands.
Every input release used by this study
Release and retrieval dates stay visible so a reader can tell whether two measures describe the same moment.