Research / Rental Seasonality
Raw asking rent + local trend removal
When is asking-rent pressure historically weakest?
Rent levels rise and fall for reasons much larger than the calendar. This study isolates a modest historical month-of-year pattern from Zillow's non-seasonally-adjusted metro ZORI without turning it into a forecast, promised discount or apartment quote.
- Qualified metros
- 292
- Full month profile
- 12
- Minimum samples/month
- 5
- Historical window
- 2016–2025
The useful answer
Winter is common. It is not universal.
Among 292 metros with enough complete history, January is the most common historically weakest month, leading in 120 markets. July is the most common strongest month, leading in 97. Those national counts describe a tendency, not a rule for every location.
The distinction matters because rent has a long-term trend. Simply averaging January dollar rents and comparing them with July would mix seasonality with years of appreciation. RentMarker instead measures each raw monthly observation against a centered local trend and then takes the median result for that calendar month across available years.
The widest measured swing belongs to Heber, UT at 5.8%. Even there, the result is a metro index pattern. It is not a promise that a particular apartment will be cheaper, available or easier to win in the historically weaker month.
Historical relative-rent pattern · 292 qualified metros
Which months most often sit below or above local trend?
Each metro contributes one historically weakest month and one strongest month after its own centered trend is removed.
Read the index correctly
Relative pressure is different from a rent quote.
The calculation deliberately answers one narrow historical question and leaves adjacent claims outside the dataset.
Position around local trend
A −1.0% monthly value means that month's median raw ZORI position sat 1.0% below the centered trend across observed years. It does not mean rent fell 1.0% from the previous month.
Current adjusted rent
RentMarker keeps the seasonally adjusted current ZORI beside the profile as context. It never enters the month-of-year calculation and cannot manufacture a missing raw observation.
Inventory and competition
ZORI does not tell us how many units were listed, whether concessions were offered or how many renters applied. A lower index month may still offer fewer choices.
Across the distribution
Twelve sample markets from high, middle and low swings.
Every row links back to the market evidence. The complete reproducible table includes all twelve month estimates.
| Metro | Weakest month | Relative position | Strongest month | Relative position | Seasonal swing | Current adjusted rent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heber, UT | August | −2.3% | February | +3.4% | 5.8% | $3,4492026-06-30 | 2020–2025at least 5 per month |
| Naples, FL | June | −2.1% | December | +2.9% | 5.0% | $2,6752026-06-30 | 2016–2025at least 9 per month |
| Portland, ME | January | −2.7% | July | +2.1% | 4.8% | $2,3522026-06-30 | 2016–2025at least 9 per month |
| Midland, TX | January | −1.8% | July | +2.4% | 4.3% | $1,6202026-06-30 | 2016–2025at least 9 per month |
| Dallas, TX | January | −0.9% | July | +0.8% | 1.7% | $1,6732026-06-30 | 2016–2025at least 9 per month |
| Vallejo, CA | December | −0.8% | August | +0.9% | 1.7% | $2,4382026-06-30 | 2016–2025at least 9 per month |
| Lafayette, LA | January | −0.8% | August | +1.0% | 1.7% | $1,3702026-06-30 | 2016–2025at least 9 per month |
| Tuscaloosa, AL | February | −0.9% | August | +0.8% | 1.7% | $1,4802026-06-30 | 2016–2025at least 9 per month |
| Yuba City, CA | October | −0.3% | August | +0.3% | 0.7% | $2,0112026-06-30 | 2017–2025at least 8 per month |
| Hinesville, GA | December | −0.2% | September | +0.3% | 0.5% | $1,7492026-06-30 | 2016–2025at least 9 per month |
| Miami, FL | June | −0.2% | October | +0.2% | 0.4% | $2,6952026-06-30 | 2016–2025at least 9 per month |
| Lawton, OK | May | −0.2% | November | +0.2% | 0.3% | $1,1102026-06-30 | 2016–2025at least 9 per month |
“Best month” is too strong when the evidence only measures a historical metro-wide position around trend. RentMarker publishes the narrower answer.
Method
- For each eligible raw monthly observation, divide ZORI by the arithmetic mean of that month and the six direct observations on either side, then subtract one.
- For each calendar month, take the median of those detrended observations across available years; this limits the influence of one unusual year without erasing it from the sample.
- The historically weakest and strongest relative-rent months are the minimum and maximum of the twelve medians; seasonal swing is their difference.
- Current asking rent remains the separate seasonally adjusted ZORI used elsewhere on RentMarker and never enters the seasonal-index calculation.
Counter-signals
- A lower relative-rent month can also have fewer available units, different concessions or different competition; this dataset does not measure those outcomes.
- A metro-wide pattern can conceal neighborhoods, bedrooms, property types and individual listings that move differently.
- Recent structural changes can make older years less representative even when the historical calculation is correct.
Limitations
- The result is historical and descriptive, not a forecast, guaranteed saving, lease recommendation or claim that one listed unit will be cheaper in a named month.
- Zillow smooths the raw ZORI series with a three-month moving average, which reduces noise and can also mute short seasonal peaks.
- The centered trend requires six observations on either side; boundary months and any window containing a missing value are excluded rather than filled.
See the complete twelve-month shape