ZIP 78245’s current rent snapshot carries a clear tension: the immediate direction is lower, yet the broader record is not uniformly negative. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI was $1,431, below its year-earlier level. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific quote or a bedroom tabulation. The five-digit label functions here both as a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The central reading question is therefore how much weight to give a current, all-type asking-rent snapshot while its trajectory is cooling.
Direct Zillow ZIP history to that endpoint has full coverage. Exact same-month annualized change was -3.84% over the 1-year window, -1.67% over the 3-year window, and +1.27% over the 5-year window. The most recent decline therefore confirms, rather than breaks from, the intermediate cooling path; both contrast with the longest positive path. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.28%, and the maximum drawdown reached -7.37%. Those backward-looking movements mean the series supports continuity, but the current index merits qualified confidence as an evolving snapshot, not a forecast or investment recommendation. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,870 for momentum, 382 for stability, and 2,181 for balanced signal; a lower rank is higher, and the ranks are descriptive rather than predictive.
ZORI should not be collapsed into either the survey or program standard. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey, median gross rent was $1,618; it covers occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and carries survey sampling uncertainty. That is a distinct universe from a current blended asking-rent index, so the lower ZORI does not by itself signal an error or a lease discount. HUD’s local FY2026 two-bedroom FMR was $1,660. FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard—not asking rent—and it likewise cannot be used as a direct lease comparable. Timing, occupied-versus-asking status, utility treatment, and unit mix all limit cross-source equivalence.
For a size-sensitive view, the analysis scales ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder. It produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,078, $1,181, $1,431, $1,836, and $2,138, respectively from studio through four bedrooms. The estimates carry forward HUD’s local relative bedroom pattern and are useful only as a modelled translation of the blended index. They do not establish achieved rents, advertised rent by bedroom, concessions, quality, utility obligations, or availability. The index-anchor figure does not transform all-type ZORI into a directly measured rent for a particular bedroom count.
The income screen looks materially easier than the burden data, and that disagreement is consequential. Annualizing the current ZORI produces required income of $57,240 at 30% of income, compared with ZCTA median household income of $90,029; the resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 19.1%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, because the household-income statistic is broad while ZORI blends asking listings. In ACS renter-household evidence, 48.9% spent at least the stated threshold on rent. The gap between the simple screen and observed burden means neither figure can prove affordability for a particular renter or unit. Burden reflects occupied households and their reported circumstances, while current asking rent describes a different universe.
Area housing composition supplies context but not evidence about a vacant listing. The matched ZCTA estimates 33,173 housing units, including 26,259 single-family units and 3,355 large multifamily units. Its overall vacancy rate was 4.6%, and renter households made up 31.3% of occupied housing units. The packet also identifies a for-rent vacancy category, but neither area-wide vacancy nor structure type establishes a unit’s condition, lease price, concessions, or immediate availability. These estimates describe stock and tenure across the statistical area; they do not show that a particular property will lease at the ZORI level or that its vacancy carries any specific implication.
Wider benchmarks are close to, but cannot substitute for, the ZIP reading. San Antonio, TX city context reports rent of $1,382, Bexar County context reports $1,389, and San Antonio–New Braunfels, TX metro context reports $1,416; each is a wider geographic context rather than a ZIP lease comparable. The ZIP index is slightly above each context value, whereas the ZCTA gross-rent statistic is a separate occupied-home survey measure. This comparison helps locate the index without merging geographies or sources. It does not show that city, county, or metro conditions determine individual ZIP asking rents, household budgets, or property availability.
Redfin’s direct ZIP resale evidence adds a separate, not rental, cooling check. In the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $289,933, down 2.62% year over year. It recorded 516 homes sold, 80 median days on market, 861 homes of inventory, and 5.1 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.51%; 10.97% sold above list, while 12.69% went off market within two weeks. These are for-sale market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The year-over-year resale-price decline confirms the rent history’s cooling direction, but it sits beside the income screen; that cross-universe tension means the arithmetic screen is not a complete condition reading. The sales count shows resale turnover, but neither source establishes rental terms. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 5.92%, only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Concrete property-level checks include matching active listings by bedroom, size, condition, lease term, utilities, concessions, fees, and availability, and matching sales by property type, condition, date, and list history before drawing a unit-level conclusion.