At $1,393 in June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 85202 is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than the recorded price of every home on the market. The latest exact same-month movement is a 1.84% increase. For wider, noninterchangeable current-rent context, Mesa city-wide is about $1,549, Maricopa County-wide is $1,729, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro-wide is $1,733; each is above the ZIP index. The label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so its boundary and aggregation can differ from mail-delivery geography. That makes it an area-level benchmark, not a statement about any particular property.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,594 median gross rent with a $50 90% margin of error. This is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and it includes selected utilities; it is not an asking-rent series. The Zillow index is below that ACS median, but the difference does not value or describe an individual lease because the populations and cost definitions differ. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom fair-market-rent standard is $1,850, and the current ZIP index is 75.3% of that benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so neither the ACS measure nor HUD standard should be read as a competing live listing price.
Backward-looking history shows the stronger change in pattern. Direct Zillow ZIP ZORI observations through the stated endpoint rose 1.84% on the exact same-month one-year comparison, fell at a 0.59% annualized rate across three years, and gained 1.64% annualized over five years. The recent positive direction therefore breaks from the intermediate three-year path while remaining directionally consistent with a positive five-year net path; it does not establish a forecast. The series has 100% coverage, 138 observations, and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Its annualized monthly-return variability is 3.01%, and its maximum drawdown was 6.10%. The variability and prior decline reduce the confidence that belongs in one current-rent snapshot.
Bedroom figures provide a transparent sizing device, not a new set of observations. The studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and four-bedroom figures of $1,107, $1,197, $1,393, $1,860, and $2,063 are modelled monthly ZIP estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder, with the two-bedroom rung aligned to the ZIP index. This preserves HUD’s relative bedroom pattern rather than claiming a local lease sample by bedroom count. The underlying HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, so listing mix, utility treatment, condition, and lease terms can make an actual advertised unit materially different from its modelled estimate.
Affordability and burden point to a separate tension. Applying the conventional 30% screen to the current monthly asking index produces $55,720 in annual required income, beside a matched-ZCTA ACS median household income of $71,619. That screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; area median income cannot be assigned to a household or listing. In the ACS survey, 4,646 renter households, or 56.1% of those measured for rent burden, paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. Because gross rent includes selected utilities and the survey is aggregate, the burden statistic cannot prove a specific unit’s payment, burden, eligibility, or affordability.
Housing stock describes the ZCTA’s composition and reported vacancies, not immediate supply. It contains 18,154 housing units and has 49.3% renter occupancy. The stock includes 8,723 single-family units and 3,083 units in larger multifamily structures. There are 1,356 vacant units, of which 707 are classified as for rent, producing a 7.47% overall vacancy rate. These are area-wide ACS classifications rather than a live count of apartments, turnover, or a signal that any particular residence is available. They should not be used as proof about the price, condition, or vacancy of an individual unit.
The history discovery results add a final limit rather than an outlook. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent national ranks are 1,992 for momentum, 1,648 for stability, and 2,139 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. These past-measurement summaries are not forecasts or investment recommendations. The packet does not identify unit condition, availability date, advertised rent, concessions, lease length, deposit, fees, utility inclusions, or an exact bedroom count. At the property level, the listing and lease can be checked for those terms and for alignment between the advertised address and the applicable geography. Which listing-specific term, if any, explains a gap between a unit’s offer and this area-level index?