Curated market comparison

CincinnatiLouisville

Ohio River regional alternatives with different acquisition-cost, employment and climate evidence despite their geographic proximity.

Cincinnati, OH market pageLouisville, KY market page
Cincinnati, OH cityscape
Louisville, KY cityscape
Quick answer

Choose by objective, not by one blended winner

These are the published fit calls from the verified decision memo. Use the full evidence below to decide whether the trade-off matches your property plan.

CincinnatiCash flow · Employment · Climate risk
LouisvilleAffordability
Deal-dependentSupply discipline
Take the five-question market-fit quiz
Decision memo

The trade-off, before the charts

Figure-checked analysis generated from only these two published records. No appreciation forecast and no property-level expense assumptions.

Cincinnati better fits an investor prioritizing headline cash flow and employment stability. Its gross yield is 6.06% versus Louisville’s 5.85%, while asking rent is $198 higher. CES employment grew 0.22% in Cincinnati and fell 0.84% in Louisville. Those advantages support deeper rent and tenant-demand testing in Cincinnati, although gross yield excludes operating costs and financing.

Louisville better fits a lower-entry-price mandate. Its median home value is $284,065, making Cincinnati $29,238 more expensive. Affordability is otherwise close: price-to-income is 3.85 in Louisville and 3.86 in Cincinnati. Supply is also a near call. Louisville has 2.5 months of supply versus Cincinnati’s 2.4, but its permitting rate is lower, so the preferred market depends on whether the buyer emphasizes current listings or the construction pipeline.

Cincinnati better fits lower climate-risk tolerance. Its climate loss ratio is 0.105%, compared with 0.1638% in Louisville, and inland flood is the dominant hazard in both markets. Cincinnati therefore offers the stronger combined employment and climate evidence, while Louisville offers cheaper acquisition. Property-level underwriting should test Cincinnati for income durability and Louisville for whether its entry-price advantage adequately compensates for weaker employment and higher modeled climate loss.

Evidence matrix

One question, two records

“n/a” means the current source did not publish a comparable value. It is never replaced with an estimate.

Decision evidenceCincinnati, OHLouisville, KY
Composite scoresame published scoring framework56/10037/100
Median home valueZillow ZHVI$313,303$284,065
Median asking rentZillow ZORI$1,583$1,385
Gross rental yieldrent × 12 ÷ price6.1%5.9%
Price to household incomevalue ÷ ACS income3.86x3.85x
Annual job changeCES▲ 0.22%▼ 0.84%
Months of supplylatest Redfin period when published2.4 mo.2.5 mo.
Net migrationIRS tax-return households−959−142
Expected annual building lossFEMA NRI market aggregate0.105%0.164%
Latest market momentum

Price and rent are not moving in lockstep

A shared zero-centred scale makes direction and magnitude comparable. This is a current annual change, not a forecast.

Latest annual home-value and asking-rent momentumCincinnati, OHLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE+2.5%ASKING RENT+2.9%-2.9%+2.9%Louisville, KYLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE+1.6%ASKING RENT+2.3%-2.9%+2.9%
Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Score fingerprint

The same total can hide a different market

Direct labels replace hover tooltips, so the full comparison remains visible in static HTML and print.

Component score differencesCincinnatiCOMPOSITE SCORE56/100same national frameworkLouisvilleCOMPOSITE SCORE37/100same national frameworkCOMPONENT PROFILE0255075100Employment5416gap 38Rent trend4232gap 10Affordability5865gap 7Supply discipline5860gap 2Climate safety8136gap 45CincinnatiLouisville
Component percentiles use the same national scoring population and published weights on both market pages. See the source ledger below for the releases behind each component.
Price and rent history

Two growth paths, rebased to the same start

Each panel starts at 100. End labels expose whether rents or prices moved farther without asking the reader to chase a legend.

Indexed price and rent historyCincinnati, OHHOME VALUE INDEX159RENT INDEX14810013016020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared yearLouisville, KYHOME VALUE INDEX148RENT INDEX14210013016020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared year
Cincinnati: price 159 · rent 148Louisville: price 148 · rent 142Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26; Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Fit by objective

There is no universal winner

Five underwriting questions are kept in one decision ledger instead of five disconnected cards.

01
Cash flowCincinnati

Cincinnati has the better headline cash-flow fit: gross yield is 6.06%, compared with 5.85% in Louisville. Cincinnati’s asking rent is $1,583 versus $1,385 in Louisville, while its home value is also higher. For a buyer, this makes Cincinnati the stronger first screen for rent relative to acquisition value, but the narrow yield difference requires property-level verification rather than a market-wide conclusion.

02
AffordabilityLouisville

Louisville better fits an acquisition-affordability mandate because its median home value is $284,065, while Cincinnati is $29,238 more expensive. The broader household affordability comparison is nearly even: price-to-income is 3.85 in Louisville and 3.86 in Cincinnati. A buyer gets a lower entry ticket in Louisville, but should not interpret that price advantage as evidence of materially stronger local purchasing power.

03
EmploymentCincinnati

Cincinnati better fits employment stability based on the same CES source. Employment grew 0.22% year over year in Cincinnati but declined 0.84% in Louisville, an A-minus-B gap of 1.06%. For a buyer, Cincinnati provides the firmer market-level backdrop for tenant demand. Louisville’s contraction warrants closer review of property submarket, employer concentration and tenant base before underwriting occupancy or rent durability.

04
Supply disciplineDepends on the deal

Supply evidence is mixed. Louisville has 2.5 months of supply versus Cincinnati’s 2.4, giving buyers slightly more current-market slack. Cincinnati, however, issued 4.63 permits per 1,000 residents compared with Louisville’s 3.98, indicating the heavier construction pipeline. A buyer seeking present negotiating room may prefer Louisville; one prioritizing lower permitting pressure may also favor Louisville, but the very small inventory difference limits conviction.

05
Climate riskCincinnati

Cincinnati better fits lower climate-risk tolerance. Its climate loss ratio is 0.105%, compared with 0.1638% for Louisville, while inland flood is the dominant hazard in both markets. For a buyer, Cincinnati’s lower market-level loss evidence supports prioritizing it for further review. The shared hazard still requires parcel-specific flood-zone, elevation, drainage and insurance checks; the market ratio cannot establish an individual building’s exposure.

Your priorities, verified evidence

Which market fits your plan?

Answer five questions to reweight the published fit calls above. Your answers change the emphasis—not the evidence, figures or market scores.

Question 1 of 5Cash flow
How important is current income in your market decision?

Choose how much the published cash-flow fit should influence your result.

Income and pressure

Where the trade-off becomes visible

Yield and jobs answer a different question than supply and migration. The page keeps both views separate instead of blending them into one score.

Income × employment

Gross yield against job growth

Gross yield and job growth positionCincinnatiGROSS YIELD6.1%JOB CHANGE0.2%LouisvilleGROSS YIELD5.9%JOB CHANGE-0.8%MORE JOB MOMENTUMHIGHER YIELD + JOBSLOWER ON BOTH AXESMORE CURRENT YIELDCincinnatiLouisville5.3%6.6%GROSS YIELD - HIGHER TO THE RIGHT0.8%-1.4%
A position chart, not a forecast.Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employment · CES SM current · pulled 2026-07-26
Supply × demand

Capacity and household flow

Supply and migration balanceSUPPLY DISCIPLINEcomponent score and current listing supply0100Cincinnati2.4 months listed58/100Louisville2.5 months listed60/100NET HOUSEHOLD MIGRATIONIRS tax-return householdsOUTFLOW0INFLOWCincinnatinet tax-return households-959Louisvillenet tax-return households-142
Supply and IRS migration remain separate measures.Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · BPS through 2026 · pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts · metro tracker through 2026-05-01 · pulled 2026-07-26IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26
Migration quality, not just volume

Adjust the flow for market size and mover income

Raw migration rewards a larger metro by construction. The rate below divides net mover tax returns by ACS population; the income bars then compare the adjusted gross income reported by arrivals and departures.

Migration volume adjusted for population and mover income qualityCincinnati, OHNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS-0.4PER 1,000 RESIDENTS-959 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$70,475LEAVING$79,283ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI-$8,808Louisville, KYNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS-0.1PER 1,000 RESIDENTS-142 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$61,257LEAVING$70,501ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI-$9,244
IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26Census ACS 5-year — population · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-26“Per 1,000 residents” is a transparent normalization, not a published IRS rate.
Underwriting boundary

What this comparison cannot decide

Market evidence narrows the search. It does not price a roof, an insurance policy, a loan or a specific lease.

  1. Gross yield is a market-level relationship between asking rent and home value. It does not establish achievable rent, vacancy, operating costs, financing terms or property condition, so neither Cincinnati’s 6.06% nor Louisville’s 5.85% should be treated as a property return.
  2. Supply signals do not point uniformly in one direction. Months of supply is close, while permitting rates differ; neither figure identifies where new units are located, their tenure, price point or delivery timing. Submarket competition must be checked before relying on either signal.
  3. Both markets show negative net migration: Cincinnati is -959 tax-return households and Louisville is -142. This measure does not capture every resident or explain neighborhood demand, but it cautions against treating Cincinnati’s employment advantage or Louisville’s lower price as proof of broad demand strength.
Figure-level provenance

Which release supports which claim

Release period and retrieval date are shown separately. Follow any row to inspect the publisher; the complete build ledger is available on the sources page.

Census ACS 5-year — household incomeHousehold income and affordability ratiosACS 2024 5-year
Pulled 2026-08-02Census ACS 5-year — populationPopulation denominator for migration rateACS 2024 5-year
Pulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employmentPayroll employment change where availableCES SM current
Pulled 2026-07-26Census Building Permits Survey — permitted unitsPermitted housing units and supply scoreBPS through 2026
Pulled 2026-07-26FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratiosExpected annual hazard loss ratioNRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS)
Pulled 2026-07-26IRS SOI — county migration and mover incomeMover tax returns, net flow and adjusted gross incomeSOI migration 2022-2023
Pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cutsListing supply, days on market and price reductionsmetro tracker through 2026-05-01
Pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZHVI — metro home valuesHome values, annual change and price historyMetro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv
Pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rentsAsking rents, annual change and rent historyMetro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv
Pulled 2026-07-26
Open the complete source ledgerSee formulas and publish gates
From metro to local evidence

Open the counties inside each market

Metro averages can hide large local differences. These links are ordered by published ACS population and lead to county price, rent, listings, migration, investor and hazard evidence.

Next underwriting step

Move from market screen to property test

CincinnatiRun the cash-flow testPrefilled from this market's measured price and rentLouisvilleRun the cash-flow testUse the same assumptions for a fair comparisonAddress-level researchCheck rent by ZIPReplace the metro screen with a more local benchmark
35/35 published numeric claims matched current factsUpdated 2026-08-04Read the methodology