Curated market comparison

Kansas CitySt. Louis

Missouri's two largest market alternatives differ across yield, entry price, jobs, supply, migration and climate.

Kansas City, MO market pageSt. Louis, MO market page
Kansas City, MO cityscape
St. Louis, MO cityscape
Quick answer

Choose by objective, not by one blended winner

These are the published fit calls from the verified decision memo. Use the full evidence below to decide whether the trade-off matches your property plan.

Kansas CityEmployment · Climate risk
St. LouisCash flow · Affordability
Deal-dependentSupply discipline
Take the five-question market-fit quiz
Decision memo

The trade-off, before the charts

Figure-checked analysis generated from only these two published records. No appreciation forecast and no property-level expense assumptions.

St. Louis better fits a cash-flow-first screen because its gross yield is 6.25%, versus 5.59% in Kansas City, while its median home value is $280,016. That combination offers more initial rent relative to acquisition price and a lower capital hurdle before property-level costs. Kansas City instead asks buyers to accept a $51,698 higher median entry price and an $86 higher monthly asking rent; the rent difference does not reverse St. Louis’s yield advantage.

Kansas City better fits buyers prioritizing employment stability, migration and climate-risk tolerance. CES employment grew 0.48% year over year in Kansas City but declined 0.48% in St. Louis, making Kansas City’s tenant-demand backdrop firmer on the published measure. Kansas City also recorded net migration of 2,315 tax-return households, while St. Louis recorded -2,056. Its climate loss ratio is 0.1122%, below St. Louis’s 0.1807%, although inland flood is the dominant hazard in both markets.

The supply choice depends on what the buyer wants protected. St. Louis issued 2.5 permits per 1,000 residents versus 5.25 in Kansas City, signaling less incoming construction pressure. Kansas City, however, has 1.8 months of for-sale supply versus 2.1 in St. Louis, indicating a tighter current resale market. Underwrite St. Louis first when lower basis, gross yield and permitting discipline dominate. Underwrite Kansas City first when positive jobs, positive migration and lower reported climate loss matter more. Neither market settles the investment decision without address-level rent, condition, flood and insurance review.

Evidence matrix

One question, two records

“n/a” means the current source did not publish a comparable value. It is never replaced with an estimate.

Decision evidenceKansas City, MOSt. Louis, MO
Composite scoresame published scoring framework64/10050/100
Median home valueZillow ZHVI$331,714$280,016
Median asking rentZillow ZORI$1,545$1,459
Gross rental yieldrent × 12 ÷ price5.6%6.3%
Price to household incomevalue ÷ ACS income3.97x3.49x
Annual job changeCES▲ 0.48%▼ 0.48%
Months of supplylatest Redfin period when published1.8 mo.2.1 mo.
Net migrationIRS tax-return households+2,315−2,056
Expected annual building lossFEMA NRI market aggregate0.112%0.181%
Latest market momentum

Price and rent are not moving in lockstep

A shared zero-centred scale makes direction and magnitude comparable. This is a current annual change, not a forecast.

Latest annual home-value and asking-rent momentumKansas City, MOLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE+3.7%ASKING RENT+3.5%-4.2%+4.2%St. Louis, MOLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE+3.1%ASKING RENT+4.2%-4.2%+4.2%
Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Score fingerprint

The same total can hide a different market

Direct labels replace hover tooltips, so the full comparison remains visible in static HTML and print.

Component score differencesKansas CityCOMPOSITE SCORE64/100same national frameworkSt. LouisCOMPOSITE SCORE50/100same national frameworkCOMPONENT PROFILE0255075100Employment6626gap 40Rent trend5363gap 10Affordability6870gap 2Supply discipline6480gap 16Climate safety7528gap 47Kansas CitySt. Louis
Component percentiles use the same national scoring population and published weights on both market pages. See the source ledger below for the releases behind each component.
Price and rent history

Two growth paths, rebased to the same start

Each panel starts at 100. End labels expose whether rents or prices moved farther without asking the reader to chase a legend.

Indexed price and rent historyKansas City, MOHOME VALUE INDEX157RENT INDEX14710013016020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared yearSt. Louis, MOHOME VALUE INDEX150RENT INDEX14610013016020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared year
Kansas City: price 157 · rent 147St. Louis: price 150 · rent 146Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26; Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Fit by objective

There is no universal winner

Five underwriting questions are kept in one decision ledger instead of five disconnected cards.

01
Cash flowSt. Louis

St. Louis is the better fit for a gross cash-flow screen: its published yield is 6.25%, compared with 5.59% in Kansas City. St. Louis also has $1,459 median asking rent against a $280,016 median home value, while Kansas City pairs $1,545 rent with a $331,714 value. For a buyer, St. Louis offers more scheduled rent relative to purchase value before expenses. This is not a net-return conclusion because taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing and property condition are not published.

02
AffordabilitySt. Louis

St. Louis better fits acquisition and tenant-affordability priorities. Its median home value is $280,016, which is $51,698 below Kansas City’s, and its price-to-income measure is 3.49 versus 3.97. Tenant rent burden is also slightly lower in St. Louis at 21.83%, compared with 22.22% in Kansas City. For a buyer, the lower entry benchmark can widen the set of properties that meet a capital budget, while the slightly lighter rent burden may leave somewhat more room for tenants to absorb the prevailing asking rent.

03
EmploymentKansas City

Kansas City better fits an employment-stability screen. CES employment increased 0.48% year over year there, whereas St. Louis declined 0.48%, producing a published Kansas City advantage of 0.96 percentage points. Migration reinforces, but does not prove, the same direction: Kansas City posted net inflow of 2,315 tax-return households, while St. Louis posted -2,056. For a buyer, Kansas City offers the stronger current backdrop for occupancy and leasing assumptions. These metro indicators do not identify neighborhood job access, tenant industries or future hiring.

04
Supply disciplineDepends on the deal

St. Louis fits buyers most concerned about construction discipline, with 2.5 permits per 1,000 residents versus 5.25 in Kansas City. Kansas City fits buyers who prefer a tighter current resale market: it has 1.8 months of supply, compared with 2.1 in St. Louis, and homes have a median 18 days on market versus 21. The buyer implication differs by horizon. Lower St. Louis permitting can reduce one source of future competitive inventory, while Kansas City’s tighter listings can make acquisition selection and negotiation less forgiving today.

05
Climate riskKansas City

Kansas City better fits lower reported climate-loss tolerance. Its climate loss ratio is 0.1122% of building value per year, compared with 0.1807% in St. Louis; the published difference is -0.0685 percentage points for Kansas City minus St. Louis. Inland flood is the dominant hazard in both markets, so neither avoids the core exposure. For a buyer, Kansas City provides the better metro-level loss signal, but an address may diverge materially based on flood zone, drainage, elevation, construction and prior claims, none of which are published here.

Your priorities, verified evidence

Which market fits your plan?

Answer five questions to reweight the published fit calls above. Your answers change the emphasis—not the evidence, figures or market scores.

Question 1 of 5Cash flow
How important is current income in your market decision?

Choose how much the published cash-flow fit should influence your result.

Income and pressure

Where the trade-off becomes visible

Yield and jobs answer a different question than supply and migration. The page keeps both views separate instead of blending them into one score.

Income × employment

Gross yield against job growth

Gross yield and job growth positionKansas CityGROSS YIELD5.6%JOB CHANGE0.5%St. LouisGROSS YIELD6.3%JOB CHANGE-0.5%MORE JOB MOMENTUMHIGHER YIELD + JOBSLOWER ON BOTH AXESMORE CURRENT YIELDKansas CitySt. Louis5.0%6.8%GROSS YIELD - HIGHER TO THE RIGHT1.0%-1.0%
A position chart, not a forecast.Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employment · CES SM current · pulled 2026-07-26
Supply × demand

Capacity and household flow

Supply and migration balanceSUPPLY DISCIPLINEcomponent score and current listing supply0100Kansas City1.8 months listed64/100St. Louis2.1 months listed80/100NET HOUSEHOLD MIGRATIONIRS tax-return householdsOUTFLOW0INFLOWKansas Citynet tax-return households+2,315St. Louisnet tax-return households-2,056
Supply and IRS migration remain separate measures.Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · BPS through 2026 · pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts · metro tracker through 2026-05-01 · pulled 2026-07-26IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26
Migration quality, not just volume

Adjust the flow for market size and mover income

Raw migration rewards a larger metro by construction. The rate below divides net mover tax returns by ACS population; the income bars then compare the adjusted gross income reported by arrivals and departures.

Migration volume adjusted for population and mover income qualityKansas City, MONET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS+1.0PER 1,000 RESIDENTS+2,315 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$68,173LEAVING$75,494ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI-$7,321St. Louis, MONET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS-0.7PER 1,000 RESIDENTS-2,056 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$69,399LEAVING$79,656ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI-$10,257
IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26Census ACS 5-year — population · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-26“Per 1,000 residents” is a transparent normalization, not a published IRS rate.
Underwriting boundary

What this comparison cannot decide

Market evidence narrows the search. It does not price a roof, an insurance policy, a loan or a specific lease.

  1. Gross yield uses market-level asking rent and home value, not a specific property’s lease, vacancy or operating costs. Because taxes, insurance, repairs, utilities, management, financing and capital needs are not published, the 6.25% and 5.59% figures cannot be treated as net yields.
  2. CES employment and tax-return migration describe metro direction, not the tenant base around a particular asset. Kansas City’s positive readings and St. Louis’s negative readings should guide diligence, but buyers still need neighborhood employer exposure, commute access, household turnover and achievable-rent evidence before underwriting occupancy.
  3. The climate loss ratios are metro summaries, and inland flood is the dominant hazard in both markets. Obtain address-level flood mapping, elevation and drainage review, claims history and current insurance quotes; otherwise the apparent Kansas City advantage may not apply to the selected building.
Figure-level provenance

Which release supports which claim

Release period and retrieval date are shown separately. Follow any row to inspect the publisher; the complete build ledger is available on the sources page.

Census ACS 5-year — household incomeHousehold income and affordability ratiosACS 2024 5-year
Pulled 2026-07-26Census ACS 5-year — populationPopulation denominator for migration rateACS 2024 5-year
Pulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employmentPayroll employment change where availableCES SM current
Pulled 2026-07-26Census Building Permits Survey — permitted unitsPermitted housing units and supply scoreBPS through 2026
Pulled 2026-07-26FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratiosExpected annual hazard loss ratioNRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS)
Pulled 2026-07-26IRS SOI — county migration and mover incomeMover tax returns, net flow and adjusted gross incomeSOI migration 2022-2023
Pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cutsListing supply, days on market and price reductionsmetro tracker through 2026-05-01
Pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZHVI — metro home valuesHome values, annual change and price historyMetro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv
Pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rentsAsking rents, annual change and rent historyMetro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv
Pulled 2026-07-26
Open the complete source ledgerSee formulas and publish gates
From metro to local evidence

Open the counties inside each market

Metro averages can hide large local differences. These links are ordered by published ACS population and lead to county price, rent, listings, migration, investor and hazard evidence.

Next underwriting step

Move from market screen to property test

Kansas CityRun the cash-flow testPrefilled from this market's measured price and rentSt. LouisRun the cash-flow testUse the same assumptions for a fair comparisonAddress-level researchCheck rent by ZIPReplace the metro screen with a more local benchmark
45/45 published numeric claims matched current factsUpdated 2026-07-30Read the methodology