Curated market comparison

RichmondRaleigh

Mid-Atlantic and Southeast alternatives that differ across every major decision lens in the comparison gate.

Richmond, VA cityscape
Raleigh, NC cityscape
Quick answer

Choose by objective, not by one blended winner

These are the published fit calls from the verified decision memo. Use the full evidence below to decide whether the trade-off matches your property plan.

RichmondCash flow · Supply discipline · Climate risk
RaleighAffordability · Employment
Deal-dependentNo objective led
Take the five-question market-fit quiz
Decision memo

The trade-off, before the charts

Figure-checked analysis generated from only these two published records. No appreciation forecast and no property-level expense assumptions.

Richmond better fits a cash-flow screen. Its gross yield is 5.32% versus Raleigh’s 4.63%, while the median home value is $399,562 and asking rent is $1,772. That combination gives a buyer more gross income relative to acquisition value before property-level costs. Raleigh’s stronger affordability for residents does not translate into the stronger headline yield.

Raleigh better fits buyers prioritizing affordability and employment momentum. Its price-to-income measure is 4.38, and CES employment grew 2.15% year over year. Richmond better fits supply discipline: months of supply is 1.4, compared with 3.0 in Raleigh. Raleigh’s larger net migration of 6,995 tax-return households supports a broader demand case, but buyers must test that demand against its heavier permitting and slower resale market.

Richmond also better fits lower measured climate-loss tolerance because its annual climate loss ratio is 0.0868%, versus 0.1197% in Raleigh; inland flood is the dominant hazard in both. The choice is therefore mandate-specific: underwrite Richmond first for yield, tighter supply and lower measured climate loss, or Raleigh first for employment and household affordability. Neither market earns a blanket recommendation because metro-level figures cannot establish a property’s rent durability, insurance burden, flood exposure or operating return.

Evidence matrix

One question, two records

“n/a” means the current source did not publish a comparable value. It is never replaced with an estimate.

Decision evidenceRichmond, VARaleigh, NC
Composite scoresame published scoring framework59/10057/100
Median home valueZillow ZHVI$399,562$438,138
Median asking rentZillow ZORI$1,772$1,689
Gross rental yieldrent × 12 ÷ price5.3%4.6%
Price to household incomevalue ÷ ACS income4.61x4.38x
Annual job changeCES▲ 0.19%▲ 2.15%
Months of supplylatest Redfin period when published1.4 mo.3.0 mo.
Net migrationIRS tax-return households+3,668+6,995
Expected annual building lossFEMA NRI market aggregate0.087%0.120%
Latest market momentum

Price and rent are not moving in lockstep

A shared zero-centred scale makes direction and magnitude comparable. This is a current annual change, not a forecast.

Latest annual home-value and asking-rent momentumRichmond, VALATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE+2.4%ASKING RENT+3.3%-3.3%+3.3%Raleigh, NCLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE-2.1%ASKING RENT+0.3%-3.3%+3.3%
Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Score fingerprint

The same total can hide a different market

Direct labels replace hover tooltips, so the full comparison remains visible in static HTML and print.

Component score differencesRichmondCOMPOSITE SCORE59/100same national frameworkRaleighCOMPOSITE SCORE57/100same national frameworkCOMPONENT PROFILE0255075100Employment5297gap 45Rent trend518gap 43Affordability5080gap 30Supply discipline6024gap 36Climate safety9369gap 24RichmondRaleigh
Component percentiles use the same national scoring population and published weights on both market pages. See the source ledger below for the releases behind each component.
Price and rent history

Two growth paths, rebased to the same start

Each panel starts at 100. End labels expose whether rents or prices moved farther without asking the reader to chase a legend.

Indexed price and rent historyRichmond, VAHOME VALUE INDEX156RENT INDEX14710013016020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared yearRaleigh, NCHOME VALUE INDEX151RENT INDEX13310013016020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared year
Richmond: price 156 · rent 147Raleigh: price 151 · rent 133Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26; Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Fit by objective

There is no universal winner

Five underwriting questions are kept in one decision ledger instead of five disconnected cards.

01
Cash flowRichmond

Richmond is the better initial fit for cash flow because its 5.32% gross yield exceeds Raleigh’s 4.63%, while Richmond’s asking rent is $1,772 versus $1,689 in Raleigh. The result changes the screening order: Richmond offers more gross rent relative to market value before financing and operating costs. Raleigh should remain in consideration where a specific asset’s rent or purchase basis materially improves on its metro benchmark, but these records alone give Richmond the stronger income-to-value starting point.

02
AffordabilityRaleigh

Raleigh better fits resident affordability despite its higher home value. Its median household income is $100,103 and rent-to-income is 20.25%, compared with Richmond’s $86,679 and 24.53%. Raleigh’s price-to-income measure is also lower at 4.38 versus 4.61. For a buyer, this suggests more room in the typical household budget and potentially less dependence on aggressive rent positioning. Richmond’s lower acquisition value still matters for capital required, so buyer affordability and tenant affordability point in different directions.

03
EmploymentRaleigh

Raleigh has the stronger employment signal: CES jobs increased 2.15% year over year, compared with 0.19% in Richmond. Raleigh also recorded net migration of 6,995 tax-return households versus 3,668 for Richmond. These figures move Raleigh ahead for buyers seeking a demand backdrop supported by job and household growth. They do not prove that a particular submarket or tenant segment is stable, however. Richmond’s slower growth may still suit buyers who place greater weight on its yield and tighter supply conditions.

04
Supply disciplineRichmond

Richmond better fits supply discipline. It has 1.4 months of supply and 7.38 permits per 1,000 residents, while Raleigh has 3.0 months and 14.23 permits per 1,000. Richmond’s median days on market is also shorter at 16 versus 34. For a buyer, the Richmond figures indicate less visible inventory and a lighter construction pipeline relative to population. Raleigh’s deeper availability may improve acquisition choice or negotiating room, but it also requires closer review of nearby deliveries, concessions and competing rental product.

05
Climate riskRichmond

Richmond better fits lower climate-risk tolerance on the supplied loss measure. Its annual climate loss ratio is 0.0868% of building value, below Raleigh’s 0.1197%; the explicit Richmond-minus-Raleigh difference is -0.0329 percentage points. Inland flood is the dominant hazard in both markets, so neither record supports treating flood exposure as remote. For buyers, Richmond receives priority at the metro screen, but parcel elevation, flood zone, drainage, building design, prior claims and insurance terms remain necessary before any property-level conclusion.

Your priorities, verified evidence

Which market fits your plan?

Answer five questions to reweight the published fit calls above. Your answers change the emphasis—not the evidence, figures or market scores.

Question 1 of 5Cash flow
How important is current income in your market decision?

Choose how much the published cash-flow fit should influence your result.

Income and pressure

Where the trade-off becomes visible

Yield and jobs answer a different question than supply and migration. The page keeps both views separate instead of blending them into one score.

Income × employment

Gross yield against job growth

Gross yield and job growth positionRichmondGROSS YIELD5.3%JOB CHANGE0.2%RaleighGROSS YIELD4.6%JOB CHANGE2.1%MORE JOB MOMENTUMHIGHER YIELD + JOBSLOWER ON BOTH AXESMORE CURRENT YIELDRichmondRaleigh4.1%5.9%GROSS YIELD - HIGHER TO THE RIGHT3.2%-0.9%
A position chart, not a forecast.Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employment · CES SM current · pulled 2026-07-26
Supply × demand

Capacity and household flow

Supply and migration balanceSUPPLY DISCIPLINEcomponent score and current listing supply0100Richmond1.4 months listed60/100Raleigh3.0 months listed24/100NET HOUSEHOLD MIGRATIONIRS tax-return householdsOUTFLOW0INFLOWRichmondnet tax-return households+3,668Raleighnet tax-return households+6,995
Supply and IRS migration remain separate measures.Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · BPS through 2026 · pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts · metro tracker through 2026-05-01 · pulled 2026-07-26IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26
Migration quality, not just volume

Adjust the flow for market size and mover income

Raw migration rewards a larger metro by construction. The rate below divides net mover tax returns by ACS population; the income bars then compare the adjusted gross income reported by arrivals and departures.

Migration volume adjusted for population and mover income qualityRichmond, VANET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS+2.7PER 1,000 RESIDENTS+3,668 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$76,515LEAVING$76,257ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI+$258Raleigh, NCNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS+4.7PER 1,000 RESIDENTS+6,995 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$83,338LEAVING$81,966ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI+$1,372
IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26Census ACS 5-year — population · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-26“Per 1,000 residents” is a transparent normalization, not a published IRS rate.
Underwriting boundary

What this comparison cannot decide

Market evidence narrows the search. It does not price a roof, an insurance policy, a loan or a specific lease.

  1. Gross yield uses market value and asking rent, not realized property cash flow. The records do not publish taxes, insurance premiums, flood coverage, vacancy, concessions, maintenance, management, financing or capital needs. A buyer should therefore use the yield comparison only to prioritize inspections and full operating statements, not as a return estimate.
  2. Supply indicators operate at market scale and can conceal sharply different submarkets. Raleigh’s permitting and inventory may be concentrated away from a target property, while Richmond’s tighter aggregate conditions may not protect an asset facing nearby deliveries. Verify the competitive set, unit mix, completion timing, lease-up terms and current concessions before assigning either market’s supply signal to a building.
  3. CES employment and tax-return migration describe broad demand conditions, not renter quality or neighborhood stability. The records do not publish industry concentration, local wage distribution, renter household formation, delinquency, eviction, occupancy or renewal data. Raleigh’s stronger growth and Richmond’s positive migration therefore justify further underwriting but cannot establish achievable rent, tenant retention or downside resilience.
From metro to local evidence

Open the counties inside each market

Metro averages can hide large local differences. These links are ordered by published ACS population and lead to county price, rent, listings, migration, investor and hazard evidence.