Curated market comparison

TampaOrlando

Central Florida alternatives with comparable entry prices and meaningfully different job, migration and supply signals.

Tampa, FL cityscape
Orlando, FL cityscape
Quick answer

Choose by objective, not by one blended winner

These are the published fit calls from the verified decision memo. Use the full evidence below to decide whether the trade-off matches your property plan.

TampaCash flow · Supply discipline
OrlandoAffordability · Employment · Climate risk
Deal-dependentNo objective led
Take the five-question market-fit quiz
Decision memo

The trade-off, before the charts

Figure-checked analysis generated from only these two published records. No appreciation forecast and no property-level expense assumptions.

Tampa better fits a cash-flow screen because its 6.71% gross yield exceeds Orlando’s 6.11%, while its median value is $26,145 lower and asking rent is $48 higher. That combination leaves Tampa with the stronger top-line income proposition before property-level costs. Orlando instead better fits tenant affordability: rent absorbs 30.13% of median household income, compared with 32.59% in Tampa. A buyer prioritizing rent coverage should advance Tampa, while one prioritizing room in household budgets should advance Orlando.

Employment stability favors Orlando, where CES employment grew 0.71% year over year versus 0.10% in Tampa. Tampa counters with net migration of 12,471 tax-return households, compared with 4,635 in Orlando, but migration does not substitute for payroll growth. Supply discipline leans Tampa because it has 3.6 months of supply against Orlando’s 3.9. However, Tampa also recorded price drops on 38.57% of listings, versus 31.40% in Orlando, so the tighter inventory reading does not remove seller-side softness.

Climate-risk tolerance separates the choices rather than resolving them cleanly. Orlando has the lower reported climate loss ratio, 0.1489% versus Tampa’s 0.1693%, which supports Orlando for buyers seeking lower modeled annual building-value loss. The dominant hazards differ: hurricane in Tampa and inland flood in Orlando. Tampa therefore better fits gross-income potential, lower entry price and slightly tighter aggregate supply; Orlando better fits tenant affordability, employment momentum and the reported climate metric. Either market deserves property-level underwriting only after checking address-specific rent, condition, insurance availability, hazard exposure and competing inventory.

Evidence matrix

One question, two records

“n/a” means the current source did not publish a comparable value. It is never replaced with an estimate.

Decision evidenceTampa, FLOrlando, FL
Composite scoresame published scoring framework26/10038/100
Median home valueZillow ZHVI$361,156$387,301
Median asking rentZillow ZORI$2,020$1,972
Gross rental yieldrent × 12 ÷ price6.7%6.1%
Price to household incomevalue ÷ ACS income4.85x4.93x
Annual job changeCES▲ 0.10%▲ 0.71%
Months of supplylatest Redfin period when published3.6 mo.3.9 mo.
Net migrationIRS tax-return households+12,471+4,635
Expected annual building lossFEMA NRI market aggregate0.169%0.149%
Latest market momentum

Price and rent are not moving in lockstep

A shared zero-centred scale makes direction and magnitude comparable. This is a current annual change, not a forecast.

Latest annual home-value and asking-rent momentumTampa, FLLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE-2.9%ASKING RENT-0.9%-2.9%+2.9%Orlando, FLLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE-2.8%ASKING RENT+0.6%-2.9%+2.9%
Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Score fingerprint

The same total can hide a different market

Direct labels replace hover tooltips, so the full comparison remains visible in static HTML and print.

Component score differencesTampaCOMPOSITE SCORE26/100same national frameworkOrlandoCOMPOSITE SCORE38/100same national frameworkCOMPONENT PROFILE0255075100Employment4875gap 27Rent trend412gap 8Affordability1018gap 8Supply discipline2418gap 6Climate safety3445gap 11TampaOrlando
Component percentiles use the same national scoring population and published weights on both market pages. See the source ledger below for the releases behind each component.
Price and rent history

Two growth paths, rebased to the same start

Each panel starts at 100. End labels expose whether rents or prices moved farther without asking the reader to chase a legend.

Indexed price and rent historyTampa, FLHOME VALUE INDEX156RENT INDEX15210013517020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared yearOrlando, FLHOME VALUE INDEX152RENT INDEX14010013517020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared year
Tampa: price 156 · rent 152Orlando: price 152 · rent 140Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26; Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Fit by objective

There is no universal winner

Five underwriting questions are kept in one decision ledger instead of five disconnected cards.

01
Cash flowTampa

Tampa is the better initial cash-flow fit. Its gross yield is 6.71%, compared with 6.11% in Orlando, and its asking rent is $48 higher despite a median home value that is $26,145 lower. For a buyer, that supports more gross rental income per acquisition dollar in Tampa. This measure is only top-line rent divided by value, however; it does not establish net operating income. Property taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, concessions, management and financing are not published here, so each candidate property still requires a complete expense and lease audit.

02
AffordabilityOrlando

Orlando better fits tenant affordability because median asking rent consumes 30.13% of median household income, versus 32.59% in Tampa. Orlando’s median income is $78,533, while Tampa’s is $74,392. That gives the Orlando tenant base more measured room between typical income and asking rent, which may widen the pool able to qualify at the market median. Buyers should not treat this as proof of lower delinquency or turnover: the figures are market medians and do not show neighborhood incomes, applicant credit, household size, utility burdens or the income distribution around a specific property.

03
EmploymentOrlando

Orlando better fits employment stability on the supplied CES trend: jobs grew 0.71% year over year, compared with 0.10% in Tampa. For a buyer, stronger current payroll expansion provides a firmer backdrop for tenant formation and rent payment capacity, although it does not guarantee demand in any submarket. Tampa’s net migration was 12,471 tax-return households, against 4,635 in Orlando, so Tampa shows the stronger population-flow signal. The indicators therefore diverge, but employment gets greater weight for this objective because migration records do not identify job status, rental tenure, destination neighborhood or housing budget.

04
Supply disciplineTampa

Tampa has the narrower supply advantage, with 3.6 months of inventory compared with Orlando’s 3.9, while permits run at 6.39 per 1,000 residents in Tampa and 7.16 in Orlando. Those readings suggest somewhat less current availability and a lower population-adjusted permitting pace in Tampa, which can reduce the breadth of competition a buyer must underwrite. The signal is not uniformly tight: 38.57% of Tampa listings had price drops, versus 31.40% in Orlando. A buyer should therefore test nearby active listings, concessions and deliveries rather than infer durable scarcity from metro totals alone.

05
Climate riskOrlando

Orlando better fits a lower climate-loss tolerance because its reported climate loss ratio is 0.1489%, below Tampa’s 0.1693%; the supplied Tampa-minus-Orlando gap is 0.0204 percentage points. For a buyer, that makes Orlando the preferable first screen when modeled annual building-value loss is a gating criterion. It does not make Orlando low-risk. Tampa’s dominant hazard is hurricane, while Orlando’s is inland flood, so the relevant protection, exclusions and site characteristics differ. Parcel flood status, elevation, roof condition, mitigation features, insurer eligibility, deductibles and quoted premiums are not published and must be verified property by property.

Your priorities, verified evidence

Which market fits your plan?

Answer five questions to reweight the published fit calls above. Your answers change the emphasis—not the evidence, figures or market scores.

Question 1 of 5Cash flow
How important is current income in your market decision?

Choose how much the published cash-flow fit should influence your result.

Income and pressure

Where the trade-off becomes visible

Yield and jobs answer a different question than supply and migration. The page keeps both views separate instead of blending them into one score.

Income × employment

Gross yield against job growth

Gross yield and job growth positionTampaGROSS YIELD6.7%JOB CHANGE0.1%OrlandoGROSS YIELD6.1%JOB CHANGE0.7%MORE JOB MOMENTUMHIGHER YIELD + JOBSLOWER ON BOTH AXESMORE CURRENT YIELDTampaOrlando5.6%7.3%GROSS YIELD - HIGHER TO THE RIGHT1.3%-0.5%
A position chart, not a forecast.Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employment · CES SM current · pulled 2026-07-26
Supply × demand

Capacity and household flow

Supply and migration balanceSUPPLY DISCIPLINEcomponent score and current listing supply0100Tampa3.6 months listed24/100Orlando3.9 months listed18/100NET HOUSEHOLD MIGRATIONIRS tax-return householdsOUTFLOW0INFLOWTampanet tax-return households+12,471Orlandonet tax-return households+4,635
Supply and IRS migration remain separate measures.Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · BPS through 2026 · pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts · metro tracker through 2026-05-01 · pulled 2026-07-26IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26
Migration quality, not just volume

Adjust the flow for market size and mover income

Raw migration rewards a larger metro by construction. The rate below divides net mover tax returns by ACS population; the income bars then compare the adjusted gross income reported by arrivals and departures.

Migration volume adjusted for population and mover income qualityTampa, FLNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS+3.8PER 1,000 RESIDENTS+12,471 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$84,362LEAVING$68,096ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI+$16,266Orlando, FLNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS+1.7PER 1,000 RESIDENTS+4,635 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$71,627LEAVING$61,983ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI+$9,644
IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26Census ACS 5-year — population · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-26“Per 1,000 residents” is a transparent normalization, not a published IRS rate.
Underwriting boundary

What this comparison cannot decide

Market evidence narrows the search. It does not price a roof, an insurance policy, a loan or a specific lease.

  1. Gross yield uses market-level asking rent and median value, not a matched property’s collected rent and purchase basis. No operating expenses, vacancy history, concessions, financing terms or insurance quotes are published. Treat Tampa’s yield lead as a screening advantage only, then rebuild income and costs from leases, inspection findings, tax records and current vendor evidence.
  2. Employment and migration describe different populations and periods of activity. CES payroll growth does not reveal sector concentration, wage quality or submarket commuting patterns, while tax-return migration does not establish renter demand or household budgets. Orlando’s employment edge and Tampa’s migration edge should therefore guide local diligence, not replace employer mapping and neighborhood-level leasing evidence.
  3. Metro supply measures can conceal sharp differences by property type and location. Months of supply, permit intensity and listing price drops do not identify unit mix, completion timing, lease-up concessions or direct rental competitors. Before advancing either market, map active sales listings, permitted projects, recent deliveries and comparable rentals within the property’s realistic tenant and buyer catchment.
From metro to local evidence

Open the counties inside each market

Metro averages can hide large local differences. These links are ordered by published ACS population and lead to county price, rent, listings, migration, investor and hazard evidence.