Curated market comparison

JacksonvilleOrlando

Florida alternatives that separate affordability, employment and household-migration signals.

Jacksonville, FL cityscape
Orlando, FL cityscape
Quick answer

Choose by objective, not by one blended winner

These are the published fit calls from the verified decision memo. Use the full evidence below to decide whether the trade-off matches your property plan.

JacksonvilleAffordability · Supply discipline · Climate risk
OrlandoCash flow · Employment
Deal-dependentNo objective led
Take the five-question market-fit quiz
Decision memo

The trade-off, before the charts

Figure-checked analysis generated from only these two published records. No appreciation forecast and no property-level expense assumptions.

Jacksonville better fits an affordability-first screen. Its median home value is $353742, versus $387301 in Orlando, while price-to-income is 4.44 versus 4.93. Jacksonville also has the lower rent-to-income measure, 25.73% versus 30.13%. For a buyer, that means a lower acquisition threshold and less tenant-income pressure, although neither metro-level measure proves that a specific property is affordable or rentable.

Orlando better fits a yield-and-employment screen. Its gross yield is 6.11%, compared with Jacksonville’s 5.79%, and CES job growth is 0.71% rather than Jacksonville’s -0.41%. The trade-off is weaker household-migration momentum: Jacksonville reports net migration of 8970 tax-return households, versus 4635 in Orlando. A buyer prioritizing current rent relative to price and positive employment momentum should investigate Orlando first; one prioritizing a broader household-demand signal should keep Jacksonville active.

Supply and climate produce narrower distinctions. Jacksonville has 3.8 months of supply versus Orlando’s 3.9, so it marginally better fits supply discipline, but permitting measures require caution before treating that difference as durable. Both markets list inland flood as the dominant hazard. Jacksonville’s climate loss ratio is 0.1451%, slightly below Orlando’s 0.1489%, making Jacksonville the better fit for lower measured climate loss, not a low-risk conclusion. Property-level underwriting should therefore focus on Jacksonville for affordability and migration, or Orlando for yield and employment, while testing flood exposure and competing inventory in either market.

Evidence matrix

One question, two records

“n/a” means the current source did not publish a comparable value. It is never replaced with an estimate.

Decision evidenceJacksonville, FLOrlando, FL
Composite scoresame published scoring framework30/10038/100
Median home valueZillow ZHVI$353,742$387,301
Median asking rentZillow ZORI$1,708$1,972
Gross rental yieldrent × 12 ÷ price5.8%6.1%
Price to household incomevalue ÷ ACS income4.44x4.93x
Annual job changeCES▼ 0.41%▲ 0.71%
Months of supplylatest Redfin period when published3.8 mo.3.9 mo.
Net migrationIRS tax-return households+8,970+4,635
Expected annual building lossFEMA NRI market aggregate0.145%0.149%
Latest market momentum

Price and rent are not moving in lockstep

A shared zero-centred scale makes direction and magnitude comparable. This is a current annual change, not a forecast.

Latest annual home-value and asking-rent momentumJacksonville, FLLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE-1.4%ASKING RENT+1.1%-2.8%+2.8%Orlando, FLLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE-2.8%ASKING RENT+0.6%-2.8%+2.8%
Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Score fingerprint

The same total can hide a different market

Direct labels replace hover tooltips, so the full comparison remains visible in static HTML and print.

Component score differencesJacksonvilleCOMPOSITE SCORE30/100same national frameworkOrlandoCOMPOSITE SCORE38/100same national frameworkCOMPONENT PROFILE0255075100Employment2975gap 46Rent trend1812gap 6Affordability4218gap 24Supply discipline1918gap 1Climate safety4945gap 4JacksonvilleOrlando
Component percentiles use the same national scoring population and published weights on both market pages. See the source ledger below for the releases behind each component.
Price and rent history

Two growth paths, rebased to the same start

Each panel starts at 100. End labels expose whether rents or prices moved farther without asking the reader to chase a legend.

Indexed price and rent historyJacksonville, FLHOME VALUE INDEX151RENT INDEX14010013016020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared yearOrlando, FLHOME VALUE INDEX152RENT INDEX14010013016020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared year
Jacksonville: price 151 · rent 140Orlando: price 152 · rent 140Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26; Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Fit by objective

There is no universal winner

Five underwriting questions are kept in one decision ledger instead of five disconnected cards.

01
Cash flowOrlando

Orlando offers the stronger metro-level cash-flow starting point: a 6.11% gross yield and $1972 median asking rent, compared with Jacksonville’s 5.79% and $1708. Orlando’s higher rent comes with a higher purchase price, but the supplied yield already reflects rent relative to price without requiring a new calculation. For a buyer, Orlando deserves first review when current income production is the priority. Gross yield excludes property-specific vacancy, taxes, insurance, maintenance, financing and management, so it cannot establish net cash flow.

02
AffordabilityJacksonville

Jacksonville is the clearer affordability fit. Its median home value is $353742, which is $33559 below Orlando, and its price-to-income measure is 4.44 versus 4.93. Tenant affordability also favors Jacksonville: rent-to-income is 25.73%, compared with Orlando’s 30.13%. For a buyer, Jacksonville lowers the metro-level entry-price benchmark and may provide more room to target households with less rent burden. The trade-off is lower asking rent and lower gross yield, so cheaper acquisition does not automatically mean stronger income performance.

03
EmploymentOrlando

Orlando better fits employment stability on the supplied CES trend because jobs increased 0.71% year over year, while Jacksonville declined 0.41%. That directional split matters more than a small difference between two positive readings: Orlando currently shows an expanding employment base, whereas Jacksonville requires investigation into whether weakness is concentrated or broad. For a rental buyer, Orlando’s reading provides the firmer demand backdrop. Jacksonville partly offsets that concern with net migration of 8970 tax-return households versus Orlando’s 4635, but migration does not replace payroll evidence.

04
Supply disciplineJacksonville

Jacksonville narrowly fits supply discipline, but the conclusion is weak. It has 3.8 months of supply versus Orlando’s 3.9, and its permit rate is 7.29 per 1000 compared with Orlando’s 7.16. Orlando, however, reports 20014 total permits against Jacksonville’s 12268, while market size makes totals difficult to compare directly. For a buyer, Jacksonville’s slightly tighter resale inventory is favorable, but its slightly higher population-scaled permitting signal prevents a broad claim of materially lower future competition. Submarket pipelines should decide the underwriting order.

05
Climate riskJacksonville

Jacksonville is the relative fit for climate-risk tolerance, though both markets require serious property-level review. Each identifies inland flood as the dominant hazard. Jacksonville’s climate loss ratio is 0.1451% of building value per year, compared with Orlando’s 0.1489%. The supplied difference is only 0.0038 percentage points, so this is a ranking rather than evidence of a large risk separation. For a buyer, Jacksonville has the lower modeled loss measure, but parcel elevation, flood zone, building characteristics and insurance terms could reverse the market-level preference.

Your priorities, verified evidence

Which market fits your plan?

Answer five questions to reweight the published fit calls above. Your answers change the emphasis—not the evidence, figures or market scores.

Question 1 of 5Cash flow
How important is current income in your market decision?

Choose how much the published cash-flow fit should influence your result.

Income and pressure

Where the trade-off becomes visible

Yield and jobs answer a different question than supply and migration. The page keeps both views separate instead of blending them into one score.

Income × employment

Gross yield against job growth

Gross yield and job growth positionJacksonvilleGROSS YIELD5.8%JOB CHANGE-0.4%OrlandoGROSS YIELD6.1%JOB CHANGE0.7%MORE JOB MOMENTUMHIGHER YIELD + JOBSLOWER ON BOTH AXESMORE CURRENT YIELDJacksonvilleOrlando5.2%6.7%GROSS YIELD - HIGHER TO THE RIGHT1.3%-1.0%
A position chart, not a forecast.Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employment · CES SM current · pulled 2026-07-26
Supply × demand

Capacity and household flow

Supply and migration balanceSUPPLY DISCIPLINEcomponent score and current listing supply0100Jacksonville3.8 months listed19/100Orlando3.9 months listed18/100NET HOUSEHOLD MIGRATIONIRS tax-return householdsOUTFLOW0INFLOWJacksonvillenet tax-return households+8,970Orlandonet tax-return households+4,635
Supply and IRS migration remain separate measures.Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · BPS through 2026 · pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts · metro tracker through 2026-05-01 · pulled 2026-07-26IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26
Migration quality, not just volume

Adjust the flow for market size and mover income

Raw migration rewards a larger metro by construction. The rate below divides net mover tax returns by ACS population; the income bars then compare the adjusted gross income reported by arrivals and departures.

Migration volume adjusted for population and mover income qualityJacksonville, FLNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS+5.3PER 1,000 RESIDENTS+8,970 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$89,034LEAVING$69,519ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI+$19,515Orlando, FLNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS+1.7PER 1,000 RESIDENTS+4,635 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$71,627LEAVING$61,983ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI+$9,644
IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26Census ACS 5-year — population · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-26“Per 1,000 residents” is a transparent normalization, not a published IRS rate.
Underwriting boundary

What this comparison cannot decide

Market evidence narrows the search. It does not price a roof, an insurance policy, a loan or a specific lease.

  1. The cash-flow comparison uses gross yield, not net operating income. No property-level vacancy, insurance, tax, maintenance, management, financing or capital-expenditure figures are published. Orlando’s higher gross yield therefore identifies a screening advantage only; buyers must obtain actual operating statements and current insurance indications before relying on income coverage.
  2. CES employment and tax-return migration describe different demand channels and periods, so they should not be blended into one demand score. Orlando leads on current job direction, while Jacksonville leads on net household migration. Underwriting should test employer concentration, renter household formation and submarket leasing performance rather than assuming either metro signal applies uniformly.
  3. Months of supply and metro permit counts do not reveal where competing units are located, when they will deliver or whether they target the same renter and property type. Both markets also identify inland flood as the dominant hazard. Review parcel-level flood information, building resilience, insurance availability and nearby development pipelines before setting price or rent assumptions.
From metro to local evidence

Open the counties inside each market

Metro averages can hide large local differences. These links are ordered by published ACS population and lead to county price, rent, listings, migration, investor and hazard evidence.