Durham County presents a clear underwriting tension: Zillow's 2026-06 county median home value is $401,000, down 3.27% year over year, while FHFA's distinct annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 1.33%. These are different measures and vintages, so they should not be averaged. The result is a screening case for investors who need near-term price support or leverage discipline; they should investigate rather than assume a single appreciation story. County evidence does not establish a metro-wide pattern.
The measured market rent is $1,690 per month, and the record reports a 5.06% gross yield before operating costs. HUD's two-bedroom FMR is $1,711, a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate; market rent is $21 below it. The effective property-tax rate is 0.79%, adding a recurring carrying cost that must be included before assessing net yield. Insurance, repairs, vacancy, financing, and management costs are not published, so the gross figure is not a cash-flow conclusion.
Demand evidence is mixed rather than absent. QCEW annual covered employment declined 1.28%, while the average covered weekly wage rose 5.33%; this is workplace employment, not resident employment or unemployment. Net migration was positive at 505 households, but average income for movers in was below that for movers out, weakening the headline inflow signal. Realtor.com MLS evidence shows more visible supply, longer marketing time, softer asking prices, and seller concessions; pending listings are not closed sales. Investor participation was 15.96% against 4,110 total purchases, a competition check rather than proof of demand.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled climate loss is 0.12% of building value per year; that ratio is neither a property-specific insurance quote nor a dollar loss. The record does not publish parcel-level flood zone or elevation, premiums and deductibles, claims history, vacancy, repairs, financing, or closed-sale comparables. Those gaps prevent a net-cash-flow conclusion, flood-insurance affordability test, and confident interpretation of the Zillow decline. Next checks should cover parcel hazard and insurance underwriting, verified lease and expense data, and closed-sale and rent comparables. Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy.