Orange County, NC

Orange County presents a basis-versus-income tension: Zillow’s county median home value fell 1.77% year over year in 2026-06, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 3.32% in 2025. These are different measures and vintages: the HPI is not a dollar home value, and neither series establishes a single current appreciation rate. Yield-focused buyers should investigate property-level acquisition basis and closed comparables; buyers relying on broad appreciation should be cautious about the conflicting direction.

Measured median asking rent is $1,685 per month, producing the published 3.93% gross yield before expenses. The effective property-tax rate is 0.91%, and median annual tax is $4,162, so taxes merit explicit treatment against rent and price rather than assuming the gross yield is net income. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is reported separately as a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot replace the measured rent. Vacancy, operating-expense, insurance, financing, and property-condition data are not published, preventing net-cash-flow underwriting.

At county workplaces, QCEW reports 79,518 annual average covered jobs in 2025; Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not a description of the whole economy or resident labor market. Tax-return migration was negative, although movers in had average income $4,240 above movers out, a mixed demand signal rather than a forecast. In Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing market, active listings were up 19.16%, and 17.9% had price reductions: visible supply and seller concessions, not closed-sale evidence or proof of buyer demand. Investors comprised 9.3% of purchase mortgages, indicating some buyer competition but not all-cash or total investor buying.

The dominant hazard is inland flood, and modeled annual building-value loss is 0.15%; that county-level model is not a parcel flood determination. Flood zone, elevation, prior claims, insurance quotes, replacement cost, and lease-level rent evidence are not published, so resilience and full carrying costs cannot be tested. Closed-sale comps and local vacancy are also absent, preventing confirmation of exit pricing and income durability. Underwriters should resolve those property-specific gaps before treating the county signals as an asset conclusion.