Fayette County presents a yield-versus-exit-price tension: supplied gross yield faces soft county value evidence and earthquake carrying-cost uncertainty. Investors able to test property-level rent and insurance should investigate; those dependent on quick resale or narrow expense cushions should be cautious. In Zillow’s 2026-06 county reading, median home value was $377,429, down 0.37% year over year, while median asking market rent was $2,109 per month, up 5.07%. The stated 6.71% gross yield uses market rent before costs; it is not cash flow.
FHFA does not make those price measures equivalent. Its 2025 repeat-transaction HPI—not a home value—rose 3.62% over the year, opposite Zillow’s decline in a distinct source period. The methods and periods cannot be averaged into an appreciation rate. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,274 is a payment standard, not an estimate of market asking rent or a yield input. The 0.34% effective property-tax rate is a measurable carrying cost against that gross yield, but a county measure does not establish a parcel’s bill.
Tax-return migration was net positive, and inbound households had higher average AGI than outbound households, a demand-quality indication, not evidence of occupancy or tenant demand. QCEW annual county data show rising covered jobs and average weekly wage at county workplaces; trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy or resident labor market. Non-occupant investors made 33 of 744 purchase mortgages, or 4.44%, limiting evidence they alone set prices. Realtor.com MLS evidence showed 304 active listings, shorter marketing time, and 22.04% with price reductions. These measure visible asking supply, marketing time, and seller concessions, not closed sales or standalone proof of buyer demand.
Earthquake is the named dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.19% of building value; this county-level model is neither a site-specific loss estimate nor an insurance quote. Missing parcel insurance coverage and deductibles, condition, repair costs, vacancy, management, financing, and comparable lease terms prevent calculation of NOI, debt coverage, or insured return. Missing closed-sale prices and transaction volume also prevent testing whether MLS listing adjustments translate to executed prices. Verify those items alongside location-specific rents; county evidence cannot resolve asset selection.