At the county level, Tate’s tension is that measured home-price appreciation remains positive while the current MLS listing backdrop looks less tight; buyers who can verify deal-level rents and flood costs should investigate, while those relying on quick resale liquidity should be cautious. Zillow’s county median home value was $249,045 in 2026-06, up 4.17% year over year. The FHFA repeat-transaction HPI, labeled 2025, rose 4.64% annually. It corroborates positive direction, but it is an index rather than a home value, and the labels, methods, and intervals must not be merged.
Measured market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be calculated. The $1,089 two-bedroom HUD FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent and cannot substitute in a rent calculation. Against the Zillow value measure, the effective property-tax rate is 0.65%; it is a carrying-cost input, not a complete tax bill or an assessment proxy. Missing market-rent comps, operating costs, and flood-insurance quotes prevent all-in income and expense underwriting.
Realtor.com’s MLS listing evidence points to more negotiable visible supply: active listings rose 19.1% and 27.43% of listings had price reductions. Those are active-listing and seller-concession measures, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Non-occupant investors represented 7.32% of 314 purchases, which establishes some buyer competition but not its effect on prices. Net migration was negative three tax-return households, even as average AGI of inbound movers exceeded that of outbound movers by $6,807; the combination offers no clear volume-based demand signal.
The supplied QCEW record shows annual covered workplace employment growing 3.82%. Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector at 24.29% of private covered jobs; this is neither resident employment nor the full county economy. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual building-value loss is 0.14%, a portfolio-screening ratio rather than a property loss estimate. Next checks are parcel flood zone and insurance, rent and vacancy comps, tenant income, and closed-sale or contract data; county-level evidence cannot resolve asset-specific resilience, cash flow, or exit liquidity.