Union County’s underwriting tension is positive price direction against incomplete income evidence and a weakening covered-workplace signal. Cautious buyers should verify deal-level rent, insurance and liquidity rather than treating appreciation as a cash-flow case. Zillow’s county median home value was $298,606 in 2026-06, up 3.4% year over year. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI, a measure of paired-sale price change rather than a home value, rose 6.96% in annual 2025 and 91.42% over five years. Both point upward, but their methods and vintages differ and cannot form one growth rate.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,471 per month is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot be used as rent in a yield calculation. Carrying costs merit separate file review: the reported effective property-tax rate is 0.37%, but this county measure does not establish the bill for a particular parcel. Price direction therefore does not resolve whether income covers ownership costs.
QCEW annual covered employment at county workplaces fell 8.56%; this is neither resident employment nor an unemployment reading. Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Realtor.com MLS evidence shows 75 active listings, a 60-day median marketing time, and price reductions on 24.88% of listings. These describe visible supply and seller concessions, not closed prices or buyer demand alone. In-movers outnumbered out-movers and reported higher average AGI than leavers. The record attributes 11 of 305 purchase mortgages to non-occupants, a 3.61% investor share. Together, this warrants checking tenant and owner-occupier demand at submarket level.
The central physical limit is inland flood: the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.13% of building value, a county-level expectation rather than a parcel loss estimate. Missing market rent, vacancy, rent growth, operating expenses, closed-sale comparables, flood-zone status, insurance quotes and property condition prevent a cash-flow, exit-price or asset-specific resilience conclusion. Next checks are leases and asking-rent comparables, assessed-value and tax records, MLS closed transactions, flood maps and insurance terms, and buyer financing by property type.