Centralia, WA
Centralia merits investigation by buyers who prioritize rent momentum and job growth, but investors needing strong current yield or low physical-risk exposure should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Centralia merits investigation by buyers who prioritize rent momentum and job growth, but investors needing strong current yield or low physical-risk exposure should avoid it. Asking rent rose 5.73% year over year and LAUS jobs rose 1.21%, while the gross yield is 3.86%.
The opportunity is demand-side strength without similarly fast price appreciation: home values rose 1.86%, and tax filings show net migration of 351 households. Yet the $438,412 median value equals 5.86 times median income, so entry pricing is not especially light relative to local earnings.
The main risks sit in supply and property-level underwriting. Inventory is 4.1 months, 30.06% of listings had price drops, and climate loss is 0.3451% of building value per year, with inland flood the dominant hazard. Buyers should investigate insurance, flood exposure, and achievable rent before treating recent rent growth as durable.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
What income does the typical asking rent imply at the stated value?
Are tax-filing households moving into or out of Centralia?
How much new and resale supply is visible?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Centralia as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 86 | 30% | 25.80 |
| Rent trend | 81 | 25% | 20.25 |
| Affordability | 64 | 15% | 9.60 |
| Supply pressure | 32 | 15% | 4.80 |
| Climate risk | 8 | 15% | 1.20 |
| Published score | 62 | ||
LAUS jobs rose 1.21% year over year -> employment is a supportive rental-demand signal, but industry concentration is not published.
Asking-rent growth of 5.73% exceeded home-value growth of 1.86% by 3.87 percentage points, a calculation from the figures -> rent-price alignment improved, although gross yield is 3.86%.
Rent equals 22.64% of median household income, while price is 5.86 times income -> tenant affordability looks more favorable than buyer affordability.
Permits totaled 288 and inventory was 4.1 months, while 30.06% of listings had price drops -> buyers have negotiating signals, but the record does not show whether new units compete with rentals.
Reported annual climate loss is 0.3451% of building value, with inland flood the dominant hazard -> property-level flood and insurance review is essential.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- A 3.86% gross yield provides a limited starting income return before operating costs.
- Resale conditions may be softer than rent growth suggests, with 30.06% of listings showing price drops and a median market time of 38 days.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the reported annual climate loss ratio is 0.3451% of building value.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Centralia
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centralia, WA (Target) | 62 | $438k | $1,411 | 3.9% | ▲ 1.2% |
| Carson City, NV | 56 | $496k | $1,811 | 4.4% | ▲ 1.0% |
| Ellensburg, WA | 42 | $499k | $1,777 | 4.3% | ▲ 0.8% |
| Astoria, OR | 49 | $523k | $1,560 | 3.6% | ▲ 0.8% |
| Logan, UT | 58 | $474k | $1,460 | 3.7% | ▲ 0.7% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |