Evansville, IN
Evansville merits investigation by value-focused rental buyers who can tolerate weak employment and flood exposure; buyers dependent on strong job growth or low property risk should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Evansville merits investigation by value-focused rental buyers who can tolerate weak employment and flood exposure; buyers dependent on strong job growth or low property risk should avoid it. A $229,634 median value and $1,077 asking rent produce a 5.63% gross yield before expenses.
The opportunity lies in affordability and tight resale supply. Rent consumes 18.94% of median household income, while months of supply is 1.9. Rent rose 5.2%, faster than the 3.77% increase in home values, but these annual changes do not establish a durable trend.
The principal tension is that favorable entry economics are not supported by current labor momentum. CES employment fell 1.33%, and tax filings show a small net household outflow. Inland-flood exposure adds a separate underwriting concern. Proceed only if property-level insurance, flood exposure, operating costs, and achievable rent preserve the apparent yield.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
Does the headline yield show likely cash flow after costs?
Is new construction likely to materially loosen rental competition?
How liquid is the purchase market, and are investors already dominant?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Evansville as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Rents versus prices, indexed to 2019
Both series start at 100. The gap between the lines is the investment case, and which line is closing it tells you what kind of market this is.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 8 | 30% | 2.40 |
| Rent trend | 75 | 25% | 18.75 |
| Affordability | 88 | 15% | 13.20 |
| Supply pressure | 79 | 15% | 11.85 |
| Climate risk | 29 | 15% | 4.35 |
| Published score | 51 | ||
Job: CES employment fell 1.33% year over year -> buyers should not assume labor-market expansion will support occupancy or rent growth and should test demand at the property and neighborhood level.
Rent: Median asking rent is $1,077 and rose 5.2% year over year -> recent rent movement supports revenue potential, but the record does not show renewal rents, vacancy, concessions, or whether this pace persisted.
Affordability: Rent equals 18.94% of median household income and home value equals 3.37 times income -> the market appears accessible to tenants and buyers, though those metro-level measures do not establish affordability for a specific unit.
Supply: Months of supply is 1.9, homes take a median 12 days to sell, and 33.87% record price drops -> inventory is tight and moves quickly, yet frequent reductions make disciplined offers more appropriate than assuming uniform seller leverage.
Climate: The annual climate loss ratio is 0.1802%, with inland flood identified as the dominant hazard -> water risk warrants address-level flood review, insurance quotations, and repair-reserve scrutiny before acquisition.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- Employment weakness could undermine rental demand: CES jobs declined 1.33% year over year, while the record provides no industry breakdown showing whether the decline is concentrated or broad.
- Household and income migration are unfavorable: 4,416 households moved in versus 4,454 out, and inbound movers' average income was $55,236 compared with $61,889 for outbound movers.
- Inland flooding is the dominant hazard, and the 0.1802% annual climate loss ratio could translate into insurance, maintenance, interruption, or resale pressure that a metro-level gross yield does not capture.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
Metros that behave like Evansville
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evansville, IN (Target) | 51 | $230k | $1,077 | 5.6% | ▼ 1.3% |
| Lansing, MI | 55 | $253k | $1,296 | 6.2% | ▼ 1.1% |
| Pueblo, CO | 38 | $289k | $1,391 | 5.8% | ▼ 0.9% |
| Duluth, MN | 51 | $269k | $1,342 | 6.0% | ▼ 0.5% |
| Manhattan, KS | 51 | $273k | $1,267 | 5.6% | ▼ 0.9% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |