Merced, CA
Merced merits investigation for buyers prioritizing job momentum and constrained supply, but buyers needing low renter burdens or low water-hazard exposure should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Merced merits investigation for buyers prioritizing job momentum and constrained supply, but buyers needing low renter burdens or low water-hazard exposure should avoid it.
Jobs rose 3.47% year over year, while the permit rate was 1.51 per thousand residents and active inventory stood at 2.8 months. Median asking rent also increased 2.17%. Together, these signals support tenant-demand investigation and indicate constrained sale and construction supply, but they do not establish future occupancy or rent growth.
The entry math is demanding: a $418,997 median value against $2,010 monthly asking rent produces the published 5.76% gross yield, before expenses. Rent equals 36.81% of median household income, while median home value fell 1.29% and 25.91% of listings had price drops. Inland-flood exposure adds a separate underwriting risk.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
What is the basic rent-to-price math?
How much negotiating room does the listing market show?
Does household migration support the demand case?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Merced as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Rents versus prices, indexed to 2019
Both series start at 100. The gap between the lines is the investment case, and which line is closing it tells you what kind of market this is.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 100 | 30% | 30.00 |
| Rent trend | 31 | 25% | 7.75 |
| Affordability | 3 | 15% | 0.45 |
| Supply pressure | 82 | 15% | 12.30 |
| Climate risk | 22 | 15% | 3.30 |
| Published score | 54 | ||
CES employment rose 3.47% year over year -> the tenant-demand backdrop is favorable, though occupancy is not published.
Median asking rent rose 2.17% year over year -> rent momentum is positive, but occupancy and renewal data are not published.
Rent equals 36.81% of median income and price equals 6.4 times income -> renter and buyer affordability are both weak points.
Inventory is 2.8 months and the permit rate is 1.51 per thousand residents -> supply is constrained, although 25.91% of listings had price drops.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard and the annual loss ratio is 0.2048% of building value -> property-level flood and insurance review is necessary.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- Rent equals 36.81% of median household income, leaving affordability as a constraint on the rental thesis.
- Tax filings show net migration of -662 households and a mover AGI gap of -$2,983, weakening the demand evidence.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with an annual loss ratio equal to 0.2048% of building value.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Merced
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merced, CA (Target) | 54 | $419k | $2,010 | 5.8% | ▲ 3.5% |
| Athens, GA | 56 | $374k | $1,670 | 5.3% | ▲ 2.3% |
| The Villages, FL | 47 | $389k | $1,751 | 5.4% | ▲ 2.8% |
| Oxford, MS | 61 | $413k | $2,108 | 6.1% | ▲ 2.9% |
| Wilmington, NC | 48 | $449k | $1,727 | 4.6% | ▲ 2.6% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |