Modesto, CA
Modesto merits selective investigation by cash-flow buyers who can buy below the $469,758 median and verify flood exposure; buyers relying on rapid rent growth or price appreciation should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Modesto merits selective investigation by cash-flow buyers who can buy below the $469,758 median and verify flood exposure; buyers relying on rapid rent growth or price appreciation should avoid it. Median asking rent is $2,045, implying a 5.22% gross yield, while rent rose only 0.56%.
The opportunity is a still-tight resale market: 2.2 months of supply and a 21-day median marketing period. Yet 32.28% of listings had price drops, home values fell 0.77%, and net migration was -967 households. That mix favors disciplined negotiation, not broad confidence in appreciation.
Employment grew 0.67%, a positive signal, but housing costs remain demanding relative to local incomes. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, so property-level insurance, elevation, and loss-history checks are central to underwriting rather than optional diligence.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
How strong are the current rental economics?
How much negotiating leverage does the resale market show?
What climate hazard must a buyer underwrite?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Modesto as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Rents versus prices, indexed to 2019
Both series start at 100. The gap between the lines is the investment case, and which line is closing it tells you what kind of market this is.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 73 | 30% | 21.90 |
| Rent trend | 11 | 25% | 2.75 |
| Affordability | 19 | 15% | 2.85 |
| Supply pressure | 73 | 15% | 10.95 |
| Climate risk | 37 | 15% | 5.55 |
| Published score | 44 | ||
Jobs grew 0.67% year over year -> employment is a positive signal, though growth is modest.
Rent rose 0.56% and gross yield is 5.22% -> current income growth is limited, so a purchase must work near today’s rent.
Rent equals 30.12% of median income and price-to-income is 5.77 -> tenant budgets and buyer affordability both warrant caution.
Supply is 2.2 months and median days on market is 21, but 32.28% of listings cut price -> inventory is tight while pricing resistance creates selective negotiating room.
The annual climate loss ratio is 0.1627%, with inland flood dominant -> property-level flood exposure and insurance require review.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- Rent growth was only 0.56%, and the 5.22% gross yield does not include operating costs.
- Net migration was -967 households, while inbound movers’ average income was $1,557 below outbound movers’.
- The dominant hazard is inland flood, and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.1627%, leaving water risk in the underwriting.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
Metros that behave like Modesto
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modesto, CA (Target) | 44 | $470k | $2,045 | 5.2% | ▲ 0.7% |
| Charleston, SC | 38 | $436k | $2,066 | 5.7% | ▲ 0.5% |
| Crestview, FL | 35 | $442k | $1,987 | 5.4% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Lancaster, PA | 72 | $393k | $1,533 | 4.7% | ▲ 0.8% |
| Boise City, ID | 67 | $497k | $1,874 | 4.5% | ▲ 1.0% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |