All homes and bedroom counts
Markets / California / Modesto
RENTAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Modesto, CA
Modesto merits selective investigation by cash-flow buyers who can buy below the $469,758 median and verify flood exposure; buyers relying on rapid rent growth or price appreciation should avoid it.
Median price$470k
Median rent$2,045
Gross yield5.2%
Job growth▲ 0.7%
Composite Market ScoreRank #364 of 571 scored US market areas
Direct rental answer
How much is rent in Modesto, CA?
Zillow's metro-wide Observed Rent Index is $2,045 per month for 2026-06-30. That is up 0.56% from a year earlier.
Occupied rental units paying rent
Two-bedroom standard
These figures are not averaged together. Zillow and Realtor describe asking-rent markets, ACS measures rent paid by surveyed households, and HUD publishes administrative bedroom standards.
Exact county schedules
HUD rent benchmarks inside Modesto
Every row keeps its own county FIPS schedule. No county is selected as a metro proxy and no synthetic metro FMR is calculated.
| County | Studio | 1 BR | 2 BR | 3 BR | 4 BR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanislaus County, CAFIPS 06099 | $1,255 | $1,356 | $1,758 | $2,442 | $2,823 |
The read
Why this market scores where it does
Modesto merits selective investigation by cash-flow buyers who can buy below the $469,758 median and verify flood exposure; buyers relying on rapid rent growth or price appreciation should avoid it. Median asking rent is $2,045, implying a 5.22% gross yield, while rent rose only 0.56%.
The opportunity is a still-tight resale market: 2.2 months of supply and a 21-day median marketing period. Yet 32.28% of listings had price drops, home values fell 0.77%, and net migration was -967 households. That mix favors disciplined negotiation, not broad confidence in appreciation.
Employment grew 0.67%, a positive signal, but housing costs remain demanding relative to local incomes. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, so property-level insurance, elevation, and loss-history checks are central to underwriting rather than optional diligence.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
How strong are the current rental economics?
Median asking rent is $2,045, rent grew 0.56% year over year, gross yield is 5.22%, and rent equals 30.12% of median income.
How much negotiating leverage does the resale market show?
Supply is 2.2 months and median time on market is 21 days, but 32.28% of listings had price drops and home values fell 0.77%.
What climate hazard must a buyer underwrite?
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.1627% of building value.
Investor Quick Takeaways
Gross Yield: 5.2%
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Rent Momentum: ▲ 0.56%
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Investor Activity: 7.9%
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Climate Exposure: FEMA NRI
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Put the evidence to work
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Modesto as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
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Market pulse
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
Months of supply2.2 mo.▼ from 2.6 mo. a year ago
Median days on market21 days▼ from 22 days a year ago
Listings with price drops32.3%▼ from 33.3% a year ago
Sale-to-list ratio99.4%2026-05-01
Home value growth▼ 0.8%Zillow ZHVI · trailing 12 months
Rent growth▲ 0.56%Zillow ZORI · trailing 12 months
Gross rental yield5.2%Rent × 12 ÷ price
Payroll job growth▲ 0.7%CES · 12m to 2026-06
Release-to-release evidence
What actually changed
This comparison exists because at least one underlying source period advanced. Rebuilding the same data never creates a new observation.
Published score held steady44→44
0 ptsThe published component scores did not move in this release.
Weights were unchanged at metro-2026-07-v2-omb2023, so the movement comes from refreshed evidence and percentile ranks.
The named source periods advanced, but the measured values on this page held steady.
The one chart
Rents versus prices, indexed to 2019
Both series start at 100. The gap between the lines is the investment case, and which line is closing it tells you what kind of market this is.
Reindexed Price vs. Rent Growth
2019 = 100 · annual · 2019–2026
Since 2019, prices are up 44% and rents 47%. Rents running ahead of prices is what lifts yield. ✓ recomputed from series
Composite breakdown
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
Published arithmeticComponent × weight = points
44| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 73 | 30% | 21.90 |
| Rent trend | 11 | 25% | 2.75 |
| Affordability | 19 | 15% | 2.85 |
| Supply pressure | 73 | 15% | 10.95 |
| Climate risk | 37 | 15% | 5.55 |
| Published score | 44 | ||
Modesto, CA scoreRank #364
44Job growth73/100
Jobs grew 0.67% year over year -> employment is a positive signal, though growth is modest.
Rent trend11/100
Rent rose 0.56% and gross yield is 5.22% -> current income growth is limited, so a purchase must work near today’s rent.
Affordability19/100
Rent equals 30.12% of median income and price-to-income is 5.77 -> tenant budgets and buyer affordability both warrant caution.
Supply pressure73/100
Supply is 2.2 months and median days on market is 21, but 32.28% of listings cut price -> inventory is tight while pricing resistance creates selective negotiating room.
Climate risk37/100
The annual climate loss ratio is 0.1627%, with inland flood dominant -> property-level flood exposure and insurance require review.
The numbers
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
ZHVI Median Price
$470k
YoY ▼ 0.8%
ZORI Median Rent
$2,045
YoY ▲ 0.56%
Gross Rental Yield
5.2%
Rent × 12 ÷ price
$2,045 × 12 ÷ $469,758
Job Growth (YoY)
▲ 0.7%
CES payrolls
Job signal 73/100
Median Household Income
$81k
Census ACS 5-year
Rent Burden
30.1%
Annual rent ÷ household income
Price-to-Income
5.8x
Median value ÷ household income
HUD 2BR Fair Market Rent
$1,758
Market rent 116.3% of FMR
Historical affordability context
Compare aligned 2019 and 2024 asking-rent and nominal household-income endpoints across the direct-overlap metro set.
Independent rent evidence
One market, several legitimate rent benchmarks
These releases observe different homes and different moments. RentMarker keeps them separate: ZORI remains the scoring baseline, while the other sources test how sensitive the market story is to bedroom mix and measurement method.
Monthly benchmark4 of 4 reported values
Zero-based scale$2,045Primary RentMarker baseline
2026-06-30
All homes and bedroom counts
A smoothed metro rent index for observed rentals; it is the primary rent used by RentMarker scores and career ratios.
View source release ↗$1,356−$689 vs ZORI
FY2026 FMR
One-bedroom standard
An administrative gross-rent benchmark used by HUD programs; it is neither a listing median nor a prediction of one lease.
View source release ↗$1,758−$287 vs ZORI
FY2026 FMR
Two-bedroom standard
An administrative gross-rent benchmark used by HUD programs; it is neither a listing median nor a prediction of one lease.
View source release ↗$1,623−$422 vs ZORI
ACS 2024 5-year
Occupied rental units paying rent
A five-year survey estimate of contract rent plus applicable tenant-paid utilities; it is not a current asking-rent index.
View source release ↗Take the next step
Keep Modesto as context, then replace market-wide evidence with the candidate property's facts.
Direct local rental evidence
Recent leases and rental-market liquidity in Modesto, CA
These Apartment List observations match the exact metro CBSA code 33700. They are kept separate from Zillow asking rent, Census occupied-home rent and property-level comparables.
Direct recent-lease rent history
Monthly overall-rent index; missing observations are not filled from another geography.
Recent-lease rent$1,5142026-07 · -0.9% year over year
Rental vacancyn/an/a
Time on marketn/an/a
Regional price level
What feels expensive inside Modesto
BEA compares each category with the United States, which equals 100. This is a 2024 price-level comparison—not annual inflation.
BEA Regional Price Parities · 2024US = 100
Occupation wage lens
How asking rent sits against major local occupations
Annualized Zillow asking rent is divided by each BLS annual median wage. This is a screening ratio for one wage, not a household budget or affordability verdict.
Six largest published major groupsannual rent ÷ median wage
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations$46,920 median wage
52.3%
Office and Administrative Support Occupations$51,040 median wage
48.1%
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations$40,580 median wage
60.5%
Sales and Related Occupations$39,920 median wage
61.5%
Educational Instruction and Library Occupations$69,320 median wage
35.4%
Healthcare Support Occupations$35,970 median wage
68.2%
Supply pipeline
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
National supply context
Compare this authorization pipeline with asking-rent growth, jobs and for-sale liquidity across the evidence-complete metro set.
Building permits by structure type
units per year · latest year annualised
1,586 units authorised in 2026, 11% of them in 5+ unit buildings. This is a single-family building cycle, so the competition is other houses, not new apartments. ✓ recomputed from series
Who is arriving, and who is buying
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
Net Household Move
−967
8,834 in vs 9,801 out (IRS SOI)
▼ 10.9% of arriving households
Mover Income Gap
−$1,557
Arriving $60,663 vs leaving $62,220
Average AGI per tax return (IRS SOI)
Investor Purchase Share
7.9%
324 of 4,116 originated purchase loans
CFPB HMDA 2024
Dominant Hazard
inland flooding
0.163% building value annual loss ratio
FEMA NRI · risk type: water
Compare yield and FEMA exposure →Households arrive mainly from: San Joaquin County · Merced County · Santa Clara County · Alameda County · Sacramento County
✓ 8,834 in − 9,801 out = -967 netDirect market links
Where tax-return households moved from and to
These are the largest flows where both counties map to a RentMarker market area. They are a documented subset of the all-US IRS totals above.
Leading inbound markets
- Stockton, CA1,879 arriving
- San Francisco, CA1,299 arriving
- Merced, CA1,110 arriving
Leading outbound markets
- Stockton, CA1,560 leaving
- Merced, CA972 leaving
- San Francisco, CA919 leaving
The other side
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- Rent growth was only 0.56%, and the 5.22% gross yield does not include operating costs.
- Net migration was -967 households, while inbound movers’ average income was $1,557 below outbound movers’.
- The dominant hazard is inland flood, and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.1627%, leaving water risk in the underwriting.
Inside this metro area
Move from the market-area average to local evidence
Use the available county and city pages to add local price, rent, housing, migration and hazard context to the market-area view.
County records
Cities in this market
Statistical peers
Market areas that behave like Modesto
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Market area | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modesto, CA (Target) | 44 | $470k | $2,045 | 5.2% | ▲ 0.7% |
| Charleston, SC | 38 | $436k | $2,066 | 5.7% | ▲ 0.5% |
| Crestview, FL | 35 | $442k | $1,987 | 5.4% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Lancaster, PA | 72 | $393k | $1,533 | 4.7% | ▲ 0.8% |
| Boise City, ID | 67 | $497k | $1,874 | 4.5% | ▲ 1.0% |
Provenance
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income and gross rent | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-08-05 |
| Census ACS 5-year — historical household income | direct | ACS 2019 and 2024 5-year | 2026-08-05 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Apartment List Rent Estimates — recent-lease rent index | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy | direct | Apartment List 2026-07 | 2026-08-08 |
| BEA County Personal Income — income and population | direct | 2024 County Personal Income (released 2026-02-05); history 1969-2024 | 2026-08-03 |
| BEA Regional Price Parities — metropolitan price levels | direct | 2024 Regional Price Parities (released 2026-02-19); history 2008-2024 | 2026-08-03 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS OEWS — occupation employment and wages | direct | May 2025 OEWS estimates (released 2026-05-15) | 2026-08-03 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2021-2025; latest 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-08-02 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA | 2026-08-08 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI history 1975-2025; latest 2025 | 2026-08-02 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD CHAS — renter burden by HAMFI income band | direct | HUD CHAS 2018-2022 ACS 5-year (released 2025-12-23) | 2026-08-03 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD-USPS ZIP-to-county residential-address crosswalk | direct | HUD-USPS 2026Q1 | 2026-08-09 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-30 | 2026-08-06 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-08-06 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Realtor.com Rental Report — top-50 asking rents | direct | top-50 rental asking rents 2026-05 | 2026-08-05 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply | direct | ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03 | 2026-08-12 |
| USDA ERS — Rural-Urban Continuum Codes | direct | USDA ERS 2023 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes | 2026-08-02 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI - metro market rents, not seasonally adjusted | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_month.csv | 2026-08-15 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-08-08 |