Amelia County presents a price-momentum versus cash-flow-verification tension. Buyers underwriting owner-occupant resale demand should investigate, while rental buyers should remain cautious until achievable rent and flood costs are documented. Zillow’s county observation for 2026-06 puts median home value at $338,878, up 6.22% year over year. FHFA’s separate 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 3.62% annually and 58.98% cumulatively over five years. The HPI is not a home value; its distinct method and vintage corroborate direction only, so the rates cannot be combined.
Housing economics are unclosed: market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard rather than market asking rent and cannot replace it. The effective property-tax rate is 0.38%, and median annual tax is $1,079; these are carrying-cost inputs, not evidence that a given home will be assessed or billed identically. Assessment basis, operating costs and insurance costs are not published, limiting net-income underwriting.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing-market evidence shows a 30-day median marketing time and a 10.94% price-reduced share; these are asking-market conditions, not closed-sale pricing or buyer-demand proof. Active listings increased from a year earlier, tempering the short marketing-time signal. Tax-return migration was positive, and households moving in reported higher average AGI than those moving out, but that does not establish tenant demand. QCEW’s 2025 annual covered-workplace employment fell 0.99% while covered-worker wages rose; Construction is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Only 2 of 155 purchases were investor purchases, limiting evidence that non-occupant buyers set local terms.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. The modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.09% of building value, a county-level modeled exposure rather than a parcel loss or insurance quote. Next checks are market-rent comparables and lease terms to resolve gross yield; parcel flood zone, elevation, loss history and insurance terms to resolve hazard carrying cost; and closed-sale comps, concessions and financing to test exit liquidity. Those gaps, especially actual rent and property-specific flood evidence, keep the rental and risk conclusions conditional.