Atascosa County presents a valuation-and-liquidity tension for an investor. Zillow reports a $248,771 median home value, up 1.89% in 2026-06, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI fell 1.25% in 2025 but shows a 45.07% cumulative five-year gain. These are different vintages and methods, not a blended growth rate. The split, paired with softer MLS evidence, warrants caution for an investor whose return depends on appreciation; investigate property-level comps, rent, and flood exposure before treating the Zillow direction as investable.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,098 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for rent. The effective property-tax rate is 1.29%; it adds a recurring carrying cost, but the record does not publish insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing, or flood costs. Price support cannot be tested against operating income until achievable rent and property-level carrying costs are documented.
Realtor.com’s supplied 2026-06 MLS evidence is less supportive: median listing price fell 9.77% year over year, active listings increased 40.14%, median marketing time reached 80 days, and 35.16% of listings had price reductions. These are asking-market measures, not closed prices or proof of demand. Demand has some support: 204 more tax-return households moved in than out, and average AGI for in-movers exceeded out-movers by $4,379. QCEW records annual covered employment up 1.18%, and average weekly wage up 1.97%. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Investor mortgages represented 3.42% of 614 purchase mortgages, so the exit case should not assume investor-led competition.
The dominant hazard is inland flood. The modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.09%, but that is not a property-specific insurance premium, claim estimate, or substitute for flood-zone, elevation, drainage, deductible, and coverage review. The record does not publish closed-sale comps, vacancy or lease-up, insurance quotes, financing terms, or resident employment. Those gaps prevent a defensible gross-yield, cash-flow, or exit-liquidity conclusion. Next checks should tie a specific property to comparable sales, achievable rent, tax history, flood documentation, and insurance.