Guadalupe County, TX

Guadalupe County poses a yield-versus-softening tension: investors able to verify parcel costs should investigate, while momentum-dependent buyers should be cautious. Zillow reports a $300,707 median home value and $1,710 monthly median asking rent, with a supplied 6.82% gross yield before operating costs. The home-value measure and asking rent are both lower year over year, so the recorded yield is not evidence of improving income. FHFA’s annual repeat-transaction HPI declined 1.66%; that directional confirmation uses a different method and vintage and must not be blended with Zillow into one appreciation rate.

Market asking rent—not HUD’s two-bedroom Fair Market Rent payment standard—underlies the gross-yield figure; FMR is not an asking-rent estimate. Carrying-cost work is central: the effective property-tax rate is 1.43%, and median annual tax is $4,343, though county medians may not describe a given parcel. The stated gross yield excludes taxes, insurance, repairs, financing and vacancy, none of which is published. Verify assessment, exemptions and actual tax bill before treating the rent-price relationship as net cash flow.

Demand evidence is mixed rather than conclusive. Net migration was 1,948 tax-return households, and average AGI of in-movers exceeded that of out-movers by $4,392; neither measure establishes tenant demand or neighborhood choice. QCEW lists 49,518 annual-average covered jobs at county workplaces, up 2.04%; this is not resident employment, unemployment or a forecast. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. The reported 290 investor purchases out of 4,281 total, or 6.77%, indicate some non-occupant mortgage competition but miss cash buyers. Realtor.com MLS evidence shows 62 median days on market and 31.08% of listings reduced: marketing time and seller concessions, not closed-sale pricing or buyer demand by themselves.

Inland flood is dominant, and modeled expected climate loss equals 0.16% of building value per year; a county average cannot establish parcel loss without flood-zone, elevation, insurance and claims review. Important missing evidence includes submarket sale comps, vacancy, lease renewals, insurance quotes, flood history, financing terms and parcel-specific assessment. Its absence prevents a net-yield, replacement-cost, liquidity or hazard-adjusted underwriting conclusion.