Bandera County’s decision tension is declining value evidence alongside a positive tax-return migration signal, but no published market rent to establish an income case. Buyers testing a lower basis can investigate, while income-focused underwriters should be cautious. Zillow’s county median home value in 2026-06 was $343,931, down 3.78% year over year. FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI fell 6.49% year over year after a 38.09% cumulative five-year increase. These are separate vintages and methods; their shared downward direction supports a reset review, not a combined appreciation rate.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,426 per month is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot substitute for rent in a yield calculation. The effective property-tax rate is 0.88%, with median annual tax of $2,438; assess the tax bill against the specific assessment and operating budget. Current lease terms, achieved rents, vacancies, and insurance costs are absent, preventing a carrying-cost and cash-flow conclusion.
County QCEW for 2025 reports 3,867 annual average covered jobs at county workplaces, up 5.11%; this is not resident employment. Leisure and hospitality is the largest disclosed private supersector, leaving a sector concentration point to test against the property’s tenant base. Tax-return migration recorded a calculated net gain of 189 households, and inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $34,183, a potentially relevant demand-quality signal rather than proof of renter demand. The record reports 11 investor purchases among 227 total purchases, or 4.85%; that evidence does not establish broad investor resale liquidity.
Inland flood is the named dominant hazard, and the modeled climate loss ratio is 0.16% of building value per year. That county-level expected-loss measure aligns the hazard review with flood exposure but does not establish a parcel’s flood zone, insurability, premium, or claim history. Realtor.com MLS listing-market figures—asking price, active supply, marketing time, and reductions—are absent, so visible supply and seller-concession conditions cannot be underwritten. Obtain parcel flood and insurance records, market-rent comps and lease data, and MLS history before deciding whether the lower price signals represent basis, illiquidity, or property-specific risk.