Gloucester County, NJ

Gloucester County presents a gross-yield-versus-friction underwriting case: asking rent is growing faster than the home-value measure, but taxes and inland-flood exposure can reduce the gross return. Investigate it if you can verify property-level insurance, expenses, and rent collection. Be cautious with a clean gross-yield screen: the record supports a screening thesis, not a net-return conclusion.

Zillow's 2026-06 observation puts median home value at $389,898, up 3.82%, versus median asking rent of $2,173, up 4.62%; published gross yield is 6.69% before costs. FHFA's separate 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 5.17%, supporting the direction of appreciation, but it is an index, not a home value, and should not be blended with Zillow. Market rent is 20.10% above HUD's two-bedroom FMR of $1,810; FMR is a payment standard, not asking-rent evidence. The 2.60% effective property-tax rate and $8,055 median annual tax make gross yield incomplete.

Realtor.com shows a softer median listing price, more active listings, and a 14.67% price-reduced share. These are MLS asking-price, visible-supply, and seller-concession signals—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. QCEW covered jobs rose 2.69% and average covered weekly wage rose 3.49%; they are workplace jobs and covered-worker pay, not resident employment or unemployment. The largest disclosed private supersector is trade, transportation, and utilities, not the whole economy. Net migration was positive at 432, but the AGI gap was negative $1,440, so inbound movers' average income was lower. Investor mortgages were 10.11% of 3,483 purchases: meaningful participation, not dominant competition.

Inland flood is the dominant modeled hazard; the climate-loss ratio is 0.09% of building value per year, not an insurance quote. Underwriting should obtain parcel-level flood-zone and elevation data, insurance quotes, deductibles, drainage history, and financing terms. Property-level achieved rents, operating expenses, vacancy, insurance, financing, and closed-sale comparables are not published, preventing validation of net yield, DSCR, or market value. The record also cannot show that Gloucester represents the Philadelphia metro. Next checks should compare subject rent with leases and concessions, costs with actual bills and quotes, and demand with comparable submarkets.