Montgomery County’s decision tension is a high entry value against a modest pre-cost income screen. Zillow’s June 2026 county median home value was $504,179, while its median asking rent was $2,081 per month and the supplied gross yield was 4.95%. This merits investigation by buyers who can verify parcel expenses and lease comparables; buyers dependent on appreciation or minimal carrying costs should be cautious.
Price signals do not form a single growth series. Zillow’s value measure rose 2.23% year over year, whereas FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 4.64%; the index tracks repeat sales rather than dollar values, and the distinct methods and vintages should not be averaged. The measured asking rent is 15% above the HUD two-bedroom FMR, but FMR is a payment standard, not market rent. Gross yield is before costs, and the county median annual property tax was $5,875, so net yield remains untested.
Realtor.com’s June 2026 MLS view recorded 1,221 active listings, up 10.35% year over year. Active listings are visible supply, not sales; marketing time, reductions and listings do not by themselves prove buyer demand. In 2025, QCEW covered employment at county workplaces declined 0.34%; its largest disclosed private supersector was Education and health services, at 22.77% of private covered jobs. Investors represented 8.19% of 8,286 purchase mortgages. Tax-return migration showed a net outflow of 216 households, while departing movers had average income $7,048 above arrivals; neither statistic measures renter demand in a submarket.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.10%; that county-level estimate should be reconciled with address-level flood zone, elevation and insurance terms, not treated as a parcel forecast. Flood insurance, property condition, operating expenses, vacancy, lease-renewal data and neighborhood rent or sale comparables are not published. Their absence prevents a net-yield calculation, a property-specific hazard cost conclusion, and a firm view of local exit liquidity.